I was long EURGBP for some time, but unfortunately, I exited the position when it began losing ground. It finally began making a decisive move north at 4:00 a.m. PST (it's now 7:30 a.m. PST) but as already mentioned, I was regrettably out of the trade by then. (This applies to my OANDA live account. I was still in the trade in my Tickmill Demo account and therefore realized a profit from the pair there.)
At 7:50 a.m. PST I finally have the go ahead to buy USDCAD. UPDATE: By 8:30 a.m. PST the pair has already offered some amount of profit, but I'm hoping for more, perhaps a lot more.
Sound or not, this strategy is nonetheless nothing more than a workaround. In refining its use, I am repeatedly struck by the obvious fact that a more effective amassing of pips could and would be accomplished via a continuous monitoring of price action in which positions are opened and closed in a timely manner as dictated by the ebb and flow of intraday cycles.
I’ve made an attempt to translate the indicators from my daily charts down to 15-minute charts so I don’t have to toggle back and forth between time frames. So, based off the 15-minute setup, CADJPY looks like it spent yesterday and today transitioning from a southbound to northbound trajectory, ending the last 24-hour market cycle in just about the same place it started. So even though I would be much happier entering a long position somewhere around 80.80 (as opposed to 81.38) I’m going to “bet” on the pair rising anyway. (GBPJPY is in a similar situation.) USDCHF, USDCAD, and USDJPY are all very much at the lower end of their day ranges, but since they are all bearish, entering long positions would not be ideal.
CADJPY has already begun to deliver on what it seemed to promise (on its potential), but I'm expecting (hoping for) even more.
CADJPY retreated, so I came back for seconds. Unfortunately, GBPJPY retreated as well, and ended up stopping me out before it finally decided to rise.
The last 24-hour market cycle was profitable... ... despite starting off with three big losses. However, after swapping out the envelopes I was using with Donchian channels, I couldn't help but notice that such losses (for which there is no excuse, except that I'm not monitoring my positions) can probably be avoided by applying the wrong-colored-bar methodology to hourly rather than daily candlesticks. Consequently, I plan on going this route starting next week, especially since the idea will still be applicable even when (or if) I return to trading full-time. I will essentially be checking hourly charts once every 60 minutes for potential setups, and using five minute charts to time entries and exits.
Friday, August 9, 2019 / 4:40 p.m. PST I'm returning to this line of inquiry—which I find promising—with the goal of fully integrating it into the other aspects of my system, which I feel little, if any, need to investigate further. AUDJPY is red today. It should be green only if the pair is going to follow through on reversing north. However, there is currently no commitment in that regard, as the pair's sentiment is presently neutral. AUDUSD has made the commitment to turn north, but at 0.6802, it is already near the top of the day range, which I calculate at 0.6823. Consequently, I will be looking to buy the pair the next time it forms a red daily candlestick. EURAUD is green today, when it "should" be red. I see no reason why it should not drop down to the 1.6433 level, if not the 1.6400 handle...if not on Monday, then eventually. So technically, I should be looking for the right opportunity to short this pair. (It reversed direction from northbound to southbound over the last four days.) EURUSD is the opposite of AUDJPY. If it is going to follow through on turning south, then it should have been red today instead of green, but that is a big if. I should be prepared to short the pair if and when warranted, with a take-profit target of 1.1160. NZDUSD is full-on bearish, yet has formed green candlesticks two days in a row. The numbers suggest I should be looking for an opportunity to short this pair with a take-profit target of 0.6425. The only problem is, on my one-hour charts, the day-to-day trend lines just turned north within the last eight hours or so. On the other hand, the intraday trend lines look like they are trying to roll over, so I will have to keep a close eye on this one and evaluate conditions as they continue to develop next week. USDCAD is at the bottom of the day range, so if it is going to continue north, it is a strong buy at 1.3226, with a take-profit target of 1.3305. But here too there is a problem in that the day-to-day trend lines on my one-hour chart turned bearish yesterday, whereas the intraday trend lines seem to be attempting to roll north. So once again, I will have to keep a close eye on this one and evaluate conditions as they continue to develop next week.