Nazz Yeah I here ya. Now after looking at it that doesn't seem right does it? Heard it from some pretty big grain boys down in chicago but maybe they heard wrong? I will try to find out whats happening. Thanks for the correction YT
Hello to all. I want to say that in this Internet Link: http://www.answers.com/Year+1973?cat=technology exist that: U.S. farmers plant 322 million acres to wheat, up from 293 million acres last year, in response to higher prices. Wheat production hits a record 1.71 billion bushelsânearly 50 million metric tons. But the increased planting raises fears that easily erodible land is being plowed to take advantage of higher prices and that overpumping for irrigation will draw down water tables. The U.S. Department of Agriculture arbitrarily cancels half of all open soybean and soybean meal export contracts. The Chicago Board of Trade issues an unprecedented ruling that bars entry into futures contracts on old-crop soybean meal. Poultry and livestock feeders, speculators, and others who have bought soybean meal at rising levels are unable to hedge their purchases by selling old-crop futures, prices collapse, and many companies sustain heavy losses. President Nixon announces a temporary embargo June 27 on exports of soybeans and cottonseeds, shocking Japan, Korea, and other traditional customers for U.S. oilseeds. At least 92 percent of the soybeans Japan uses for tofu (bean curd), soy sauce, and cooking oil comes from the United States, soybean prices jump by 40 percent in less than a week in Japan, the White House lifts the embargo after 5 days in response to State Department pressure, the Department of Commerce approves shipment of all orders received prior to June 13 but announces that special licenses will be required for all subsequent orders and says contracted amounts will be cut in half (by 40 percent for soybean oil, cake, and meal). Foreign buyers redouble their purchases of U.S. grain lest further controls be applied. More than 30 million tons of U.S. wheat are sold for export by the end of July, U.S. farmers hold back their crops as buyers bid up prices, other farmers and ranchers cull flocks and herds as poultry raising and cattle production become unprofitable. As i can see above, i conclude that was exist big Long positions in Soybeans. But someone that was long and from the USA Government notified the embargo, then was not possible to Sell Old Crop Futures. I want to ask all here what believe, if we suppose U.S.A. Government decide to put embargo in the Wheat Sales what will happen in the Prices of March 2008 & May 2008 Wheat Futures plus in the front Months of 2008 Wheat Futures Contracts? Until now the March 2008 & May 2008 Wheat Futures Contracts are almost in the Stratosphere... George Kanellopoulos.
Hello. Thank's for your Answer. I have seen the page 2 and your Comments there. But you have miss something... How will affect a possible embargo to the front Months, meaning after March 2008 & May 2008. For that, do you have any comment to make? George Kanellopoulos.
Today's agricultural history lesson shall now begin...... 1) In ~June-1973, a soybean embargo was declared. It seems to have been done out of necessity because there was no grain remaining, depending on whose inventory numbers you want to believe. The old-crop months lost about half of their value very quickly before nearly recovering to their prior price peaks very quickly. 2) In ~December-1980, a grain embargo was declared. It seems to have been done for political reasons meant to piss off Russia for their boycott of the Olympic Games. Grains went into a bear market that lasted atleast a few years. 3) In ~June-1990, the CBOT declared a "liquidation-only" market in July-1990 soybeans because a single entity had accumulated an enormous long-position in that contract before delivery was to begin. I vaguely remember the contract sold off from ~$9 down to ~$7.50. Delivery took place in an orderly manner. 4) I hope some of that helps.
Hello Again, Sir. Thank you for your Comments. After them i decide to open my PC and my Technical Analysis Program Metastock and to see all the Data of Wheat that exist in Database. The History begins from the Year 1973. I can see there, that exist the following Periods that Wheat raise a lot. Period 1: Years 1973-1974. Period 2: Year 1980. Period 3: Years 1995-1996. Period 4: Years 2006-2007-2008. The Period 4 until now have the biggest raise. George Kanellopoulos.
Just curious: 3-4 days ago people didn't know about the situation with Australian wheat, minni wheat was not in the battle with carn and beans for acreage, nobody knew how much wheat we have in US? Not really. Then why did it all become so crucial in the last 3-4 days?
The realization has finally set in that there's no supply of wheat and commercial users are panicking to get their hands on any supply to keep their processing facilities running. Speculators are just along for the ride.
Here are some other Numbers for Wheat: US Wheat Weekly Export Commitments As of January 31 - Million Bushels 2006-2007 550 Already Shipped. 159 Outstanding Sales. 709 Total Commitment. 200 Remaining Sales. 909* Crop Year Total. 2007-2008 863 Already Shipped. 280 Outstanding Sales. 1143 Total Commitment. 32 Remaining Sales. 1175* Crop Year Total. *01/11/2008 USDA Estimate George Kanellopoulos.