%% WELL op was honest enough to note he ''took 3 trades.'' So some may say 3 trades \that settles it/LOL Trends tend to trend again+ again. Even though this SPY downtrend is extended; it is still a downtrend below 200dma[edit=200 day moving average]. Bear moves were never as orderly as uptrending bull market.
There is always a good example to showcase a TA technique when it works, but there is also another good example to showcase when it doesn't. That is the issue for me, that if I dig deep enough I will find something that I don't like. And again you are proving the past, TA always proves the past. My problem with TA is that I try to run backtests on it in order to automate it and I see the failures of every single technique. People that are able to use TA to make profitable trades are also experienced traders, and that is what makes the trades profitable, their knowledge of the market, they know the drivers of that market and they understand when to enter and exit. TA is just something they look at to make themselves believe that they are using some kind of a system. Give that system to someone that has never traded before and you will see how it fails, so TA by itself does not work, it needs a person on it, a very experienced trader to make it to work. Which is something I cannot automate.
So in a nutshell your problem with TA is that it doesn't work all the time .... just like anything else. BTW fibs projected in advance, based on prior swings, of price getting to a certain is not proving the past. But this is (Dow 1929 crash):
You are bringing this example because you know there was a crash. your trend lines and Fibonacci levels are exactly before the crash, so it is explaining the past. I guess that I have to ask the same question to you, since you are a big fan of Fibonacci I could learn something useful from you, and I mean it in the best possible way, I really want to learn that those levels are telling me what is going to happen in the near future. Could you recommend any books or articles that I could read so I can be closer to your knowledge about Fibonacci levels and understand what you are trying to show me here?
As I said previously TA (i.e. fibs) doesn't work all the time. Though obviously what does work all the time. Books I would recommend (but you have to dive deep into them) are those written by Robert Miner ("Dynamic Trading" - more comprehensive, and "High Probability Trading Strategies", more recent) and Connie Brown ("Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional", more comprehensive and "Fibonacci Analysis", again more recent). Miner has numerous free YouTube vids out there, as well as a paid service. Not sure about Brown.
I remember (when Bogle was still alive) mentioning how he could not time markets. He didn't even know anyone who even knew anyone who could time markets. Oddly enough, we have a generation of young & dumb millennials all across tiktok and Youtube who apparently already understand the markets above anyone else's reasoning... and they all seem to want to let everyone else in on their secrets. I suppose we are going to have a shitload of billionaires and trillionaires in the next decade or so, all due to market-timing. But for the moment... my bull-shit detector keeps sounding the alarm for some odd reason.
%% WELL the nickname ''fibs'' can be a hint/LOL. I like the way Mr Vanguard Bogle downtrended his fees\ but i seldom buy VOO even though its cheaper in fees +price, but \ that bid ask spread can be a real bull shooter. LOLBut manily all my charts are SPY + SPXL\SPXS\spxu, so i like the liquidity leader. Investors could make a tic or 2 more on VOO than SPY; not many would try to time the market with that bid\ ask spread. But like Mr Miner noted [book] trade not for tics/ do points. Ido sometimes Percent,percent. Mr Miner is a real repeater on momentum........; but so many front run 55 fib number, not sure if that fib 55 helps much.