They can't tell at all, they employ low wage people, get them to ask questions off a script and score off that, in the UK you need to score very high to have a chance, went with next door, lost benefits didn't score high enough despite heart condition, knee's, wrists and mental issues and she's only 23.
This program is doing a remarkably good job of that considering it was thrown together literally in days. For example, my company doesn't need the program. It also happens that nearly all my employees make more than the PPP loan forgiveness limit, so there's little incentive for me to apply for it for that benefit. I have plenty of cash, so no need for a low interest loan. What am I going to do with it, invest in treasuries yielding .2%? And although it wasn't part of the design, joining the scrum trying to apply with a couple hundred thousand of my closest small business owner colleagues is a huge dissuasion for me even if I was inclined to try to eek out some small benefit from the program. Everyone I know that is in a similar situation did a 5 minute scan of the programs and passed. I don't doubt we'll see a couple high profile cases of companies who took advantage of the programs. But net/net, given the size and impact, I'm relatively optimistic on this one.
Or some of the people I know in EU who basically game the EU grants system, creating projects that amount to nothing and were never designed to make a profit, the only goal is to fill the criteria to get the funds. They do it on a serial basis, so it's a constant flow of new money. They live extremely comfortably, effectively doing nothing but taking money out of the system. What do people get who actually run a profitable business? More bureuacratic regulations and restrictions! Not against the EU on everything but the whole benefits system is a huge scam.
The the whole thread and discussion is interesting. Indices are up - although real economy, the good old long lasting reality ; - looks incredibly bad. How can that be?! Easy: As long as all problems are socialized by the state, the economy, or better financial economy, is happy.
Here's a good response to that question: There is a new player in the game. This player is not guided by profit motive, it is guided by public policy. The new player wishes to prevent price discovery until a time of its choosing. It can do this because it can essentially print money, which it's proxies then use to purchase equities. Review any day's one minute chart of SPY since the bottom. When it is desired to move the market upward, very large buy orders stream in. This will continue indefinitely. Some retail investors will convince themselves the market can't sustain itself with several quarters of bad economic news on the horizon and they will sell or at least not buy. Institutional investors know they are backstopped and will continue to move money into equities. Sooner if not later, the threat of COVID will pass, the economy will restart, and happy days will return. We will not have the long hangover of consumer displacement we saw after the 07 economic crisis. Price discovery will be allowed again when it will no longer move the market negatively. The vast amounts of money in pension and retirement plans will be preserved. Politicians and the wealthy aren't stupid and they know this is in their own best interests as well as maintaining the status quo of the political system. Those who look back and say "but, but, but... markets are supposed to be efficient!" will be the losers. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4337233-why-you-failed-to-buy-dip
The main negative for brick and mortar is consumer buying behavior is going to stay more indoors and online. Less Starbucks, restaurants and retail, less travel and casinos.... Perfect time for trading though