https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...travel-from-outbreak-center?srnd=premium-asia prognosis April 9, 2020, 5:00 AM GMT+8 Commercial shutdown in Jakarta sends migrant workers back home Domestic travel in and out of the city of 10m is unrestricted The usually dense traffic and pedestrian lanes in Jakarta are deserted on Jalan Sudirman, April 1. Photographer: Dimas Ardian/Bloomberg Most countries around the world are battling the coronavirus pandemic with severe travel restrictions, especially to and from areas hit hard by the deadly virus. In Jakarta, the heart of Southeast Asia’s biggest economy and the epicenter of its outbreak, the mass migration is just beginning. An estimated 2.5 million migrant workers are expected to leave Indonesia’s capital for their hometowns and villages after a commercial shutdown and new social distancing guidelines take effect Friday, according to the Jakarta administration. The restrictions, which don’t include a travel ban, are part of an effort to contain the city’s coronavirus outbreak. Greater Jakarta is home to just 11% of the country’s population but two-thirds of country’s 240 deaths and almost 3,000 infections, official data show. Late spring is typically a peak travel time, as roughly one out of every 8 Indonesians head home ahead of Eid al-Fitr, the Muslim festival marking the end of Ramadan. But the new restrictions in Jakarta, which include the closure of schools and offices, limits on public transportation and a ban on public gatherings of more than five people, are drying up work for the city’s substantial population of day laborers, prompting them to get on the road sooner rather than later. Like the early days of the outbreak in China, which coincided with Lunar New Year travel, the exodus during Ramadan may become the “perfect storm for Indonesia,” said Greg Barton, a professor of global Islamic politics at Deakin University in Australia. “If infected people end up in Kalimantan or Sumatra, or even in more remote areas of Java, it would quickly overwhelm the local resources and areas that were relatively unscathed,” Barton said. “It’s exactly what you don’t want to have happening.” Medical officers receive instructions for handling coronavirus patients at Friska Eye Hospital, in Medan, North Sumatra on April 2. Photographer: Kartik Bima / Opn Images/Barcroft Media via Getty Images President Joko Widodo has rejected calls for the kinds of travel restrictions and regional quarantines imposed in other parts of the world, saying such harsh measures would hurt the poor. The Greater Jakarta area comprises about 18% of Indonesia’s $1 trillion economy, which is already suffering. The global financial crisis triggered by the pandemic has battered the country’s currency, stocks and bonds. Indonesia’s growth rate is expected to drop by half to 2.3% this year. The worst phase of the pandemic has yet to come. Projections from the nation’s intelligence agency and leading researchers suggest as many as 95,000 people could be infected by the end of next month. Eventually the cases could number more than 2 million if strict measures are not put in place to curb the outbreak, said Pandu Riono, a professor of public health at the University of Indonesia. Medical staff prepare room for patients at the Emergency Hospital for Covid-19 in Jakarta, on March 23. Photographer: Aditya Irawan/NurPhoto via Getty Images “What we urgently need to do is to impose measures nationally as this is not an ordinary virus,” said Riono. “The virus is now not only spreading in Jakarta, but all around the country.” As it is, he said, the country failed to prepare adequately and now faces shortages of protective equipment and supplies for medical workers. About two dozen doctors working at hospitals dealing with the virus patients have died, according to The Jakarta Post. Analysts expect Jokowi, as the president is called, to implement a complete lockdown at some point. For now, he’s left mitigation measures to the regional governors and domestic travel is unrestricted. The president has appealed to people to avoid travel during this year’s Ramadan in view of the pandemic but has rejected calls to ban the exodus. A motorcyclist passes a makeshift barricade blocking the village entrance in Yogyakarta on April 2. Photographer: Rizqullah Hamiid/NurPhoto via Getty Images So Juharno, a handyman who works in Jakarta, is planning to travel 250-kilometers with his wife and their young child to his village in West Java. He’d originally expected to stay in the city for another four weeks, but now, he says, there’s no reason to stick around. “I will be out of work soon with no income,” Juharno said. “Back in my village, I won’t at least have to worry about food as it’s the harvest time.” The Jakarta municipal government has announced a program of cash payments for migrant workers like Juharno, who like many Indonesians has only one name. But he says he doesn’t want to wait around. “I don’t want to wait and then be told later that I am not eligible,” Juharno said. “I have no income and still got a family to feed.”
Indonesia and other Southeast Asian nations have seen a rapid rise in infections, raising concerns that the region of over 650 million people could be the next hotbed. (Nikkei Montage/ Getty Images/ AP) Asia Insight Indonesia in 'worst' position as coronavirus attacks ASEAN bloc https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/A...st-position-as-coronavirus-attacks-ASEAN-bloc JAKARTA -- Evawangi, a doctor at a public hospital on the outskirts of Jakarta, grows more worried every day. Her hospital has seen an increase in suspected coronavirus patients admitted over the past two weeks, but it is quickly running out of protective gear for staff members. Many are donning cheap plastic raincoats and cling wrap double as defenses in weak health systems. "We prioritize the N95 and surgical masks, hazmat suits, face shields for those in the emergency unit and isolation ward," Evawangi told the Nikkei Asian Review last week. "Our supply is limited; we can only restock it day by day. Now we have just 40-50 sets [of gear] when our actual need is 80 sets daily." Evawangi's story is far from unique. All over Indonesia's social media and news reports, photos and footage show doctors and nurses clad in blue or green raincoats. Around half the country's 2,491 confirmed cases as of Monday are in Jakarta, but others are scattered across nearly all 34 provinces. The worst may be yet to come. As China's case count has slowed, Europe and North America have become the new coronavirus crisis zones. But Southeast Asia has also seen a rapid escalation, raising concerns that the region of over 650 million people could be the next hotbed. Countries with resource-starved health care systems, such as Indonesia and the Philippines, are considered the most at risk. The Indonesian Doctors Association has urged the government to guarantee protection of medical personnel, advising workers to avoid treating COVID-19 patients without proper safeguards. Already, at least 18 association members have died in the outbreak, while nearly 100 health workers have been infected in Jakarta alone. The government said it has distributed hundreds of thousands of pieces of protective equipment nationwide, but the gear remains scarce, forcing many hospitals to ask for donations of simple supplies like gloves and hand sanitizer. "Make this a war that we can win, not a suicide mission," one hospital posted on Twitter. Due to their close links to China, more than half of Southeast Asian nations -- including Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam -- had reported their first cases by late January. Yet, their numbers grew slowly at first. Hanoi was even on the verge of declaring an end to the epidemic in early March. Then came the second wave and exponential growth. In Vietnam, which imposed strict quarantine measures on both residents and visitors in February, this new wave has been linked to an influx of international arrivals -- led by tens of thousands of citizens rushing home following lockdowns overseas. In Thailand, local clusters started cropping up in Bangkok in March -- including one at a nightclub as well as the army-owned Lumpinee Boxing Stadium, which hosted a Thai kickboxing event on March 6. Over half the 2,220 confirmed cases in Thailand, as of Monday, were in Bangkok and its vicinity. A Muay Thai kickboxing event in mid-March: A similar event in Bangkok spawned a coronavirus cluster. (Photo by Akira Kodaka) In Malaysia, a gathering of 16,000 people at Sri Petaling mosque outside Kuala Lumpur appears to have created a major cluster. Significant numbers of visitors from Thailand and Indonesia attended the event. And in the other direction, Indonesia is bracing for an influx of migrant workers returning from Malaysia, as well as nearly 12,000 ship crew members from across the globe. Another worry is the upcoming Islamic fasting month of Ramadan, which begins in late April and typically involves millions of Indonesians traveling to their hometowns. Initially, some had hoped Southeast Asia's tropical climate would be an advantage, since the SARS outbreak in 2003 petered out after the weather warmed up. Another perceived edge was the region's generally young population, compared with Italy or the U.S., as COVID-19 typically hits elderly the hardest. But these notions have been called into question. Indonesia is a case in point. Its confirmed cases are far below the U.S. and Italian tallies, but its fatality rate, 9%, is one of the highest in the world. "Age is not the only factor in high fatality," said Pandu Riono, an epidemiologist at the University of Indonesia. "Even though we have a young population, many are smokers or have underlying illnesses such as hypertension and diabetes. That makes the virus more deadly." A lack of preparation is likely making matters worse. Indonesian officials had downplayed the threat before the country's first cases were detected on March 2. Poor testing capacity means delayed diagnosis and patients being rushed to hospital too late -- which may also explain the high death rate. "Our health care system has limited capacity," Riono said. "Many of those who need treatment can't be treated, so the system let them die. Isn't that sad? It's possible we may become like Italy." Recent math modeling by Riono and his peers suggested the actual number of infections in Indonesia may have already reached 1 million, only 2% of which have been detected. The number of deaths also could be much higher than the latest toll of 209. Numerous deaths in Jakarta and elsewhere are suspected to be COVID-19 cases but could not be confirmed due to delayed test results. Compared with other major economies in the region, Indonesia has the lowest health spending per capita, and the lowest number of doctors, at just 3 per 10,000 people. Additionally, the Indonesian government is probably the most reluctant to apply tough measures to restrict public movement. The Philippines has imposed a monthlong lockdown on its main island of Luzon, home to 60 million people, with the army helping to enforce it. Malaysia closed its borders and shut down nonessential businesses in mid-March, slapping fines on violators. Singapore has gone from ordering 14 days of isolation for visitors from neighboring countries and elsewhere to barring entry altogether and ordering workplaces and schools to shut, effective Tuesday. Thailand has introduced even more draconian policies, such as curfews and restrictions on speech, with Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha saying this is a time to put "health before freedom." Cambodia appears headed in a similar direction. Workers disinfect the entrance to the Sri Petaling mosque in Kuala Lumpur in late March. A significant number of the country's cases have been linked to an event at the mosque. © EPA/ Jiji Indonesia, however, only banned international arrivals last Thursday. And while most offices, shopping malls and public places in greater Jakarta have been shut over the past few weeks, authorities only urge residents to limit their comings and goings with no enforcement. President Joko Widodo has declared a national public health emergency but is reluctant to stifle the economy any more. "We cannot just imitate [other countries], because every country has its own characteristics," he said. London-based consultancy TS Lombard, which has compared the outbreak responses of Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, said Southeast Asia's largest economy is "the worst positioned to contain the virus." "The combination of less rigorous social distancing measures and a weak health care service means that Indonesia is the least likely of the three countries ... to stop the spread of the virus anytime soon," analyst Krzystof Halladin said in a note. Yet, even better-equipped countries may soon be overwhelmed if cases continue growing at the current pace. Halladin noted that the Philippines' relatively high death ratio, around 4%, reflects its limited capacity to test and treat patients. As of last Wednesday, the Philippines had checked only 4,700 people. For comparison, Indonesia had tested 11,200 as of Sunday, Malaysia 52,000, South Korea over 460,000, and the U.S. 1.76 million. (The Philippine government late on Monday said over 20,000 people had been tested, without elaborating.) The Philippine Medical Association said 17 doctors are among its over 100 fatalities. The government has vowed to step up testing after receiving 100,000 kits from China, which has also pledged to send doctors to help Manila cope. Vietnam, wary of its own limited ability to carry out mass testing, is urging overseas citizens to rethink plans to return. Nguyen Thanh Phong, chairman of Ho Chi Minh City, warned the city "will lose control" if the number of patients tops 1,000 due to a lack of doctors, hospital beds and ventilators. Responding to the government's call for help, the conglomerate Vingroup on Friday announced it would make ventilators and thermometers. Malaysia has a relatively developed economy and far higher test count but is stretched thin, too. The government is seeking to recruit doctors, nurses and lab technicians, including retirees. Protective gear is also an issue: Videos shared online show health workers making do with trash can liners, cling wrap and plastic bags. Some companies have donated equipment, while China has sent a few hundred thousand surgical masks. A woman shields her face with a mask in Hanoi in late March. The crisis has derailed Vietnam's plans as this year's ASEAN chair. © Reuters As hospitals across the region fill up, some countries are creating makeshift wards. Thailand has decided to convert a university dorm and some hotels. Malaysia did this with an exhibition center and has similar plans for indoor stadiums. Indonesia has opened an apartment block that hosted Asian Games 2018 athletes and is preparing an abandoned island as isolation facilities. Meanwhile, an uncertain threat looms over nations with even fewer medical resources and porous borders with China -- Myanmar and Laos -- which have logged only a trickle of cases since reporting their first in late March. And at the regional level, the crisis has cast doubt on the raison d'etre of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations itself. Vietnam, this year's ASEAN chair, postponed the annual spring summit to June, disrupting a tight diplomatic schedule and giving the impression that the bloc is paralyzed in this crisis. So far, Singapore has been the only one that seemed to have things under control. The city-state took strict virus containment measures early on and boasts an advanced medical system. It has recorded six coronavirus deaths so far, out of about 1,300 cases. But even the Singaporean government was sufficiently alarmed by rising infections to further restrict economic activity this week -- underscoring the challenges that await its less-wealthy neighbors. Additional reporting by Cliff Venzon, Ismi Damayanti, Kentaro Iwamoto, Masayuki Yuda and P Prem Kumar.
Southeast Asia could be the next coronavirus hot spot — these charts show why Published Mon, Apr 20 202012:13 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Apr 20 202011:32 AM EDT Yen Nee Lee@YenNee_Lee Key Points The region as a whole has reported more than 28,000 cases as of Sunday, with Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore accounting for 87.9% of those cases, according to data by Johns Hopkins University. Several studies suggest that tens of thousands more infections may be undetected due to the low testing rate in countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. In Singapore, cases have spiked dramatically in the last two weeks, with new clusters of infections found among migrant workers living in packed dormitories. The number of coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia has risen quickly in recent weeks, with mounting worries among experts that the region could turn into a hot spot for the fast-spreading disease. The region as a whole has reported more than 28,000 cases as of Sunday, according to data by Johns Hopkins University. Collectively, Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore account for 87.9% of total cases reported in Southeast Asia, the data showed. While the region’s tally is still far off the hundreds of thousands seen in the U.S. and some European nations, several studies suggest that tens of thousands more infections could be undetected due to the low testing ratein countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines. Meanwhile in Singapore, cases have spiked dramatically in the last two weeks, with new clusters of infections found among migrant workers living in packed dormitories — even as the government’s handling of the outbreak wasat one time hailed internationally as a model for others to follow. “The fact is ... cases have been ramping up here in Southeast Asia,” Simon Tay, chairman of think tank Singapore Institute of International Affairs, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” last week. Tay said governments must act quickly to contain the outbreak. “We do need to act. The Philippine testing numbers, the Indonesian testing numbers are far too low,” he added. Varying testing capacity Capacity to test for the coronavirus vary widely across Southeast Asia. Singapore is among the top globally with 16,203 tests per million people, while Myanmar is close to the bottom with just 85 tests per million people in the population, according to data compiled by statistics site Worldometer. But experts have mostly singled out Indonesia and the Philippines as countries that they’re concerned about because of their large population. Indonesia, which has the world’s fourth-largest population of over 270 million, has conducted around 42,000 tests in total, reported Worldometer. That’s equivalent to 154 tests per million people — one of lowest globally, according to the site. Indonesian authorities said they aim to conduct 10,000 tests per day and predicted that infections could reach 95,000 as tests are ramped up, Reuters reported. Over in the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte last week approved the procurement of 900,000 more test kits — in addition to 100,000 already in use, reported Reuters. The government has implemented strict lockdown measures, but said its own modelling indicated that 75% of infections — or around 15,000 people — had not been detected, according to the report. Infections could surge in Indonesia Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s largest economy, reported its first case of Covid-19 in early March — a development that surprised many observers given the country’s extensive air links with China and the city of Wuhan, where the virus first emerged. It seems that Jokowi has prioritised preserving the economy over preventing the spread of the virus because he fears his legitimacy and hold on power may be at risk. Bradley Wood Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at ANU In contrast, neighboring countries such as Singapore and Malaysia started identifying cases as early as January — with several infected people developing symptoms after visiting Indonesia. In addition to its lag in testing, the government led by President Joko Widodo — popularly known as Jokowi — has come under criticism for not implementing a nationwide lockdown and banning domestic travel. However, the president has allowed local authorities in the capital city of Jakarta and other areas to implement lockdown measures. “It seems that Jokowi has prioritised preserving the economy over preventing the spread of the virus because he fears his legitimacy and hold on power may be at risk,” Bradley Wood, a research officer at the Australian National University’s Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, wrote in a report earlier this month. Millions of Indonesians typically travel across the country to return to their hometowns and villages at the end of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan, which concludes with large feasts and celebrations among relatives and friends. That could result in one million infections by July in Java, the country’s most populous island and home to capital city Jakarta, reported Reuters, citinga new model done by University of Indonesia’s public health faculty. Reuters reported last week that Doni Monardo, who heads Indonesia’s Covid-19 task force, said only the unemployed would be allowed to travel and they would have to undergo a 14-day quarantine. He stressed that they had a higher chance of staying well outside cities, according to the report. Spike in Singapore cases In Singapore, daily new cases hit record levels several times over the past week despite the government’s rigorous quarantine measures and screening process — underscoring the challenges that authorities face in containing the coronavirus. The country was one of the first outside China to report cases of Covid-19 and had kept the number of infections relatively low, allowing schools and businesses to remain open until earlier this month. Most of the new cases that have popped up recently involved migrant workers, many of whom are men from South Asia working in construction. Leong Hoe Nam, an infectious disease specialist at Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital in Singapore, said “it’s a bit embarrassing” that the uptick in cases involving foreign migrant workers has come when the government has managed to control the number of imported cases and community transmissions. “We’ve controlled the inbound (cases) from overseas patients returning. Within the local community, the numbers have controlled somewhat,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” last week. “But for the foreign workers who (live) in dormitories, we really have a big problem controlling there,” he added.
https://www.afr.com/world/asia/indonesia-bans-annual-pilgrimage-to-stop-virus-spread-20200421-p54lvv Indonesia bans annual pilgrimage to stop virus spread Emma ConnorsSouth-east Asia correspondent Apr 21, 2020 – 6.01pm Jakarta/Sydney | The Indonesian government has banned the annual pilgrimage to home villages after its earlier pleas to skip the trip this year due to COVID-19 failed to convince many. The government announced the ban after surveys showed that almost one in four who traditionally head home to celebrate the holiday that follows the holy month of Ramadan still planned to make the trip, known as mudik. Residents check the temperature of a man before allowing him into their neighbourhood in Jakarta. Getty "Today I am announcing a ban on mudik for everyone," President Joko Widodo said on Tuesday. The government had earlier forbidden public servants, military personnel and police from mudik. It had hoped to avoid an outright ban, fearing it would spark social unrest but changed its mind after research showed that while 68 per cent had opted not to travel this year, 24 per cent still planned to do so. Last year, 29 million Indonesians travelled home to celebrate the holiday, meaning close to seven million were still contemplating the trip, even though many regional governments had also advised would-be travellers not to come. Ramadan begins on Thursday, April 23 and runs until May 23. The ban takes effect on Friday. However, no sanctions will apply until May 7. "Better late than never - even though some people have been going home since March," commented one citizen on social media, voicing a sentiment reflected by many. Some in Indonesia refer to COVID-19 as the Jakarta disease. While the virus has now spread to all of the country's 34 provinces, the capital remains the epicentre, accounting for 3097 of the country's 6760 cases as of Monday night.