By the way, some of these ultra etfs looking mighty good. If the Nasdaq100 can make it through that trend line, then we have an etf we can buy that will give you twice the pop. A few months from now, Im going to leave my old strategies and just trade with these ultraetfs. Trading indexes is very easy because charting the overall market is easy. Its easy to see which way the market is going on a chart, up or down. Then when it chops, its telling you that its about to go down like I pointed out in the Qs chart. We can draw trend lines and make a reasonable assumption when things will bounce or crash. Look at my QQQQs chart. When you look at the trend lines and the entire chart, its not that hard to reasonably predict where the price is going. Trading individual stocks can be a crap shoot and mentally taxing. Who knows when something might happen or what announcement will be next...Im getting older and dont want to put up with stocks like LIZ, RACK, OPBL or MAMA. I dont want to wake up to find a text message on my cellphone stating "margin violation". In the traders almanac, they have a chart of when certain etfs do well seasonally. So combining traditional technical analysis with the seasonality tables we can game these double short or double long etfs and make a decent return. Look at the ultra oil&gas etf. It went from 64 to 85 dollars. 32% in two months. Not quite the return of say certain stocks that doubled or tripled in that time frame. However, who knew that they would have doubled or tripled. For every Valero or Tesoro there is a Transmeridian or Vaallco. Who knows what that CEO will say at these earnings calls? Will we see a wild waterfall dump one of these days on these stocks that climb to new highs? The potential for swing trading the double long/short etfs is very much there without the white knuckles or mental stress. http://www.proshares.com/funds/dig/5391566.html
I have an ETF that will go up probably by 46% by the end of the year. My calculations place the EWS Singapore shares at going that much higher. The EWH Hong Kong shares have about 37% left. I also checked the Shanghai market. That will start having resistance around 4200 and if it breaks through, then it should go much higher before breaking down. I say 6000-7000 area before breakdown. There is still lots of time left before a breakdown, about 7 months. Once the EWS and EWH reach target prices then we should start seeing a breakdown. This sets up perfectly for my 3/4th quarter 10% correction thesis of the Wilshire 5000. A correction set off by the breakdown on the Shanghai. The warning signal for the Wilshire 5000 will be when it hits 17000. The world markets are trading in tandem so my calculations say when the Wilshire hits 17000 then the Shanghei will be right around 6000. As we approach 17000 then you should be moving over to higher quality investments and some into cash.
Im going to issue here a strong warning. The RUT may correct down to 790 in the next few days to weeks. Im thinking days. . .
Time to short MU...they're offering $1.1B in debt with a $10B market cap. It's going to sell off to at least the $11 level now...especially with DRAM prices falling from the sky. The technicals won't outweigh fundamentals this time.
This is so disappointing that the management at MU decided to pull this trick out of their hat. This came out of nowhere.
Yeah, it did. There might be accumulation at this level, but I'd not expect it. I'll probably buy some $13 or so Puts a few months out in case it rallies, but I expect it'll sell off pretty big. A drop to $11 on $13 Puts at this price will be a nice 30-40% return. We'll see how it trades though. We'll see. The company is in a tough industry, but their balance sheet ain't bad and my concern might be that accumulators are accumulating. Will probably give this one a little before it establishes a trend.
Im hoping that the afterhours and premarket is the lowest it will go which is 11.85 at this point. Usually these selloffs afterhours are overdone. My price target is 18 and I expect it to get there in a matter of months.
We'll see how the markets are...MU is one that will get sold off with the markets if there's a correction. I'm going to watch it, I can find better stocks to invest in...this is I know. Good luck.