As for MU...sometimes you have to look at a chart and make a cold/hard decision. Ask yourself, what happens when a stock reaches a bottom? There is usually a formation of some type that will signal you that the trend is about to change. I had previously thought that we put in a double bottom and that we were over the 50 day moving average and it was up from here...however, I was wrong. It now appears to be forming a reverse head and shoulders. MU is still in the process of bottoming and this process might take another week or two. We are in May and my blood pressure is racing up from the action on the Qs and with my other plays. Look at this chart I drew and tell me what you see forming. I think its a reverse head and shoulders. This is a hard point in time to go long. May is not a kind month for those who go long.
Check out XFML. I was doing some scans last night. Its an IPO that is just receiving attention from the analysts now and is starting to rally. Had a great conference call.
Could be a reverse H&S. Will have to see if it can climb from here or if it sags to $11 again. THe chart is actually not showing much but lack of conviction by buyers...it fell from $12.15 range pretty quick...will have to watch. It's starting to climb the walls today which could end up looking like a reverse H&S on the chart. Time tells.
The scan I ran last night was for stocks that are up 6% in the last month. This one caught my attention because the analysts are just starting to pump it now. Since its an IPO, technical analysis is difficult. What we do know is that the analysts are just starting to pump it and they had a great call and there is no overhead resistance. There was a lot of selling on the first pop, but I dont see that same sell pressure right now. I would like to wait a day or two to see if the price holds from the analyst upgrade. So a great conference call and two analysts now covering it, should be a third joining shortly.
The Russell 2k is up to 822, if we see a pop above 830 then there might be a breakout. Next stop above 900. Grab the ultra shares!
MU is going to need a few more days to play out. You can see the reverse head and shoulders on the chart. The formation has to complete by breaking the neckline and its not guaranteed, but the h/s is a powerful formation so I have confidence. The cup/handle thesis isnt as strong as I have experienced quite a few times. The problem is the handle after the cup. Its so unpredictable, but the h/s is strong. The IWM or Russell 2k or RUT, whatever you want to call it, is at a crucial point. Most of Europe has broken through their resistance, but some of the other markets have not especially Asia. So it appears some of the markets are taking different paths. A breakout on the RUT will make these small cap plays a no brainer. Someone in another thread told me that you cannot make 10% in a month with an ETF. If you play the UKK you can make that easy! We saw the double bottom on the RUT intraday yesterday and you know it bounced off the mid bollinger on the weekly and the bottom bollinger on the daily. It was a no brainer bounce. So you could have bought the UKK on the bounce yesterday and then held into today for any EASY 3-4% depending on what your entry was yesterday. The advantage of gaming the UKK etf is that there will be no earnings calls to monitor or some analyst who will come out to downgrade it. Its just you and the Russell2k chart. Thats it. Less headache and long nights thinking what will happen to your stock next. Then there are the days we game the ultrashort etfs. Anything "ultra" gives you twice the pop or twice the drop of the actual index. In the future, Im going to take my portfolio down that route and just game the ultra ETFs. When the RUT turns 900 then we are going to start to look for a breakdown and pull an ultrashort. I decided to enter JBLU long today, but have a tight stop in place. Lets see where it goes.
Here is the MU chart. It will probably take 3-5 days to reach the upper line assuming the market stays bullish. Then it will either bounce or go through. The price target will be mid 13s for this formation. Its not a fast chart, but will make its course over the next 30 days.
--------------------------------------------- 05-02-07 10:23 AM If you havent, its time to make your entry on XFML. --------------------------------------------- Curious about how you did with XFML? I took a position too.