Here is what I was looking at during the day. This particular chart can be broken down into triangles. You can see the price constantly busting through the upside of the triangles. Now if the price went through the bottom of those triangles at any particular time, then it would have been time to sell. I also look at several other indicators during the day as well like OBV and ADX-DMI. I do have a job and the reason is because trading is not really a job. Its more of a fantasy that will unexpectedly fall out from beneath you at any given time. When the floor suddenly falls out from beneath you, then you need something to fall back on. To give you some idea of what I am talking about, in the year 2000 I quit my job and went off on my own in the bay area. I formed a business and everything was looking rosy. Then a year later I found myself sleeping on my friends couch for 300 dollars a month, broke, wondering how I got there. I then found work at a car dealership in 2002 and then things picked up again. I moved to NYC where I found a job in the financial district on Pine St. Its been looking up ever since. However, the lessons are in my mind. I've been with the current company for over 3 years and at the 5 year point I get a pension. They have a nice 401k matching plan. The importance of a regular job with a company was mashed into my mind at the car dealership. I worked alongside a 70 year old man who should have been retired, but he needed to work for some reason. Who knows why, maybe he was wiped out by the tech wreck as many of us were. He was eventually fired for being too old. I went out with a woman at the time too who was wiped out by the tech wreck who thought she could trade. Prop trading or trading on your own is a fool's game. Trading at an institution or hedge fund is a different story though. There your trading with someone else's money, you make big money and your making industry contacts. Im not giving up my job until I can get into the big leagues, the hedge funds, the institutions. When Im over 50, I dont want to be working at car dealerships and would sure like a pension. Now its time for me to kick back and watch Cramer on television pump SOLF like my chick said he would. Watching Cramer and knowing what he is going to pump next reinforces in my mind this fool's game. Hopefully he can get this to 20. Jesse Livermore had a great book, the stock operator book. Its important to note that Livermore was not a trader, but a "stock operator". A trader is someone who plays the market honestly. A trader charts the market, uses Fibonacci lines, uses his instinct, etc etc etc. Thats playing the market honestly. An operator uses dishonest tactics like using a Mad Money show to pump junk stocks like SOLF. Cramer is a "stock operator" just like Livermore. The market is full of them. A trader cannot make money forever because the "stock operators" will eventually plunge the markets in the end. The best any of us can do is try to figure out where the stock operators will strike next through shrewd detective work. Now lets watch Cramer pump SOLF and see how my own detective work paid off.
In a prior thread, I had mentioned I was going to use the bald guy as my research department. Now Cramer will be pumping "Green market" stocks all week long just like the rumors in the hedge fund mill were telling us. So the market is going much higher technically speaking, the solar plays will be continously pumped by Cramer and I'll ride SOLF for a little bit more. I believe SOLF will reach at least 20-22 range and possibly much higher. This will be a nice run. My ultimate target price is 27. This stock will reach a 1.3 billion dollar market cap before it thinks of turning around. I'd like to turn a 100k out of this trade. Lets see if my hard work rewards me for my effort. Maybe I should put my order to sell at 25-26 right now. That will give me about 140k in profits. Mad Money Recap Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Green Market By TheStreet.com Staff 4/16/2007 7:43 PM EDT URL: http://www.thestreet.com/funds/madmoneywrap/10350642.html The Quiz! The Quiz! Are you a loyal "Mad Money" viewer? Take TheStreet.com's latest "Mad Money" culture quiz to see how much of the show you caught last week or just to immerse yourself in Cramer's nonfinancial madness. Click here for an archive of Cramer's "Mad Money" recaps. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "We tend not to think of the U.S. Supreme Court as a way to make money," and usually that's right, Jim Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Monday. However, on April 2, a Supreme Court decision against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has turned this whole theory around, he said. The state of Massachusetts sued the EPA for not regulating carbon emissions from cars, Cramer explained. The court then ruled that the agency has the authority and responsibility to mandate these issues. And now the EPA "must regulate carbon dioxide emissions," which means there is "pressure for companies to become more green," he said. "Nobody's going to change because it's the right thing to do ... but now it's no longer economical to do the wrong thing," Cramer said. "This decision makes investing in clean energy smart." Now that the rules have changed, if a company is green "it's time to take a second look" at it, Cramer said, because "this decision puts a higher multiple on everything green." Because "green stocks" are about to get more expensive, Cramer said he needs people in them. He said he is marking April 2, the day the Supreme Court handed down this decision, as "Green Day" and is denoting an entire weeklong series to Green Day. "It's time to change our position on companies that encourage going green," Cramer said. "This is a landmark decision." Environmentally Friendly "Every stock levered to a cleaner environment should go higher in the near future," he told his viewers. On the first day of his "Green Day" series, Cramer focused on his two favorite plays in the power sector: Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and Shaw Group (SGR) . These two companies, he said, are "making themselves cleaner and the atmosphere cleaner." Now that the Supreme Court has decided to make pollution "public enemy No.1," Foster Wheeler "is attractive for its low multiple," Cramer said. "This one is going to take a huge run." He believes that the $68 stock will go to $105. Foster Wheeler is "a leader in fluidized bed boilers," Cramer said. Power plants use boilers to convert coal, gas or wood into energy, and the best part about Foster Wheeler's boilers is that they're "flexible" and allow power plants to cut sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions, he said. "This company is so in the sweet spot, it's scary," Cramer said, adding that regardless of its environmentally friendly nature, he considers it a "great buy" right now. Moreover, Shaw Group has nuclear power, which is the "best way to go -- from a global warming perspective," he continued. It recently won a couple of contracts, expects to get more contracts in the next few months and "has a huge inside edge on nuclear projects in the U.S. and abroad," according to Cramer. In the next few years, these two stocks should make people some mad money, said Cramer, who would "buy them both." Applause, Applause If Cramer had come on the show seven weeks ago when the market was going down and advised people to take all their money out of stocks, he would have been "applauded by the media," Cramer said. But at the same time, he would have been "painfully wrong." "Instilling fear has always been seen as being the height of responsibility" in the market, Cramer said. However, instead of doing that, Cramer told people to buy stocks such as Kellogg (K) and Coca-Cola (KO) . Then Cramer said it was OK to buy the banks, the second group to bottom. "The second bottom that I called is still happening," and this is the week in which the analysts will start upgrading these stocks, he said. What market players want to buy here is Goldman Sachs (GS) , which he owns for his charitable trust, Action Alerts PLUS, Cramer said. Although people might think he is "irresponsible this time around" for recommending Goldman Sachs, Cramer said he feels it is a "cheap, high-quality member of the financial group," which he expects to go higher. Further, he believes that "the stigma of credit cards is going to go away" and that Capital One Financial (COF) , which he also owns for his charitable trust, should go higher. "I own them both, and I think they're great," Cramer said. Mad Mail In his "Mad Mail" segment, Cramer told a viewer that ValueClick (VCLK) and aQuantive (AQNT) may have moved up, but in the end he believes that both are going to be acquired. Responding to another mailer, Cramer said nobody could have seen the Steel Technologies (STTX) buyout coming, since the "media was so negative on this group because of the steel glut." However, he believes that more consolidation in this group is coming and that the sector is going to end up having only three or four players in total. Lightning Round Cramer was bullish on Cepheid (CPHD) , General Maritime (GMR) , Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) and Nastech Pharmaceutical (NSTK) . Cramer was bearish on Tribune (TRB) , Excel Maritime Carriers (EXM) , Dyax (DYAX) , Meruelo Maddux Properties (MMPI) and Houston Wire & Cable (HWCC) . For more of Cramer's insights during the Lightning Round, click here. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Want more Cramer? Check out Jim's rules and commandments for investing from his popular book by clicking here.
The constant reformation of triangles kinda creates a weird dynamic here. The stock ended the day going straight up and will open tomorrow with a gap. So do you think after the stocks opens it might retract a little bit to form another triangle before shooting up again? I know I keep asking questions about this but of all the guys in the stock forum who know what they are talking about you seem to get into the technical side of things a little more. Thanks as always, -gabe
We are going to take this one day at a time, one hour at a time and our trading plan may change quite suddenly. If the stock gaps up, then we will deal with it then. Gaps typically retrace, but sometimes not immediately. Sometimes it takes weeks, months or years to retrace. What we have here is this year's mania stock. Actually, there are a few mania stocks this year like JSDA and TSL. Each year, there are stocks that take turns being involved in manias. Last years mania stocks were the ethanol stocks like XNL and PEIX. Remember that run PEIX made from the teens to the 40s? How about XNL that went from the 2s to 16 dollars in a few months? These solar plays are not investments but trade vehicles. Cramer and CNBC will be pumping these solar stocks all week long and they are going to jump. Your going to hear that we need solar panels and how the world lusts for them. All of this will be untrue. Its a pump and dump. This time we will be in on the pump and hopefully not the dump. TSL has a small float, about 21 million and a 1.46 billion dollar market cap. SOLF has 48 million outstanding (twice the float, but its still small) and 848 million market cap. Im betting that we can get that market cap up to at least 1.2 billion. At least 25 dollars. Right now the crowd is no longer thinking about fundamentals. Before, they were being picky with their solar plays and going for Trina Solar but rejecting the CSIQs. Now they dont care. They just got to have solar. This mania might last a month or more. Maybe less. Cramer is going to be on tv along with fast money pumping these plays. I would prefer to sell my shares up in the 20s and hopefully I can realize most of the move without missing out on all of it. I dont think 30s is realistic, but I do believe between 20-25 will work. Hopefully the play wont turn around tommorrow, but with all the volume today and the Cramer pump about "green stocks", I dont believe we will see it dumping down anytime soon.
Uh-oh. Looks like we got hit by an unexpected downgrade. Im going to look at how the pre-market treats the downgrade. The downgrade wasnt a "sell", but a neutral rating. Lets see what I can do with this.
In his book It's When You Sell That Counts, Donald Cassidy, a senior analyst with Lipper Analytical Services, says that all of the following analyst buzzwords should be interpreted as "Sell". Hold Accumulate Long Term Buy Market Performer Market Weight Perform in Line Underperform Underweight
Its not going to be so bad afterall. I might buy back in depending on how it goes at the open. This is not a bearish pre-market chart. It looks like a bunch of stops got hit in the premarket (like mine). However, the triangles are telling me that someone is bidding it up. No worries. The casino is open 5 days a week with opportunities everyday. This isnt a losing trade. I wasnt betting on the analyst coming in to downgrade the stock, but it does make sense. The analyst didnt want the stock gapping up. If you follow my posts, then you know how I believe gaps are evil. Its true, they are. If this gapped up, then that would have left the chart open for a retracement at some point. Retracements can come months or years later. The analyst doesnt want gaps. I'll be looking for another entry point if the triangles persist. I still have 6000 shares. 07:40 JA Solar and Solarfun downgrade details As mentioned at 6:37, CIBC downgraded JASO and SOLF to Sector Perform from Outperform and removed their respective $22 and $16 targets following the recent share price gains. Firm believes that the rally in JASO was sparked by a positive mention last week in a popular investment newsletter with a large technical trading following, and gained momentum when the JingLong Group, its main wafer supplier, announced that it will be receiving additional supply from Hemlock. Firm also believes the mkt has incorrectly taken the JingLong news as a proxy for the entire industry, which has led to the 36% one-day gain in SOLF shares. Yet firm does not believe that SOLF has seen any change to its wafer supply situation.
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!! What an ass I was with this trade...This blotter should illustrate my wrongful behavior. I only came out with an 18k gain where I could have had twice that if I wasnt such an ass. Banging my head against wall now, cash out half when stock gives me a 30% gain!!!! My logic was sound, but there was a point where my behavior became gambling and not wise sensible trading. Thats where I went wrong. Now lets get back to wise and sensible trading instead of gambling like this is on-line poker. My next play is DJ. I'll upload the chart in just a few minutes.
I've read the Dow Jones theory and his ghost visited me this morning. We had a talk and so I decided to pick up a block of shares. Mr. Jones has been hated ever since the tech bust. Everyone blamed him for the wrongdoing and so his stock has declined ever since 2000 with a few bumps in the road. A good portion Mr. Jones stock is shorted. The formation at the bottom of the downturn can be either interpreted as two different structures. A bearish wedge or a reversal pattern. If the price breaks above 39 then the price target range is 45-50. http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...rPopUp&ArticleId=NS20070417090649HeadlineHits Mr. Jones is a hated man, but he did have a good conference call. This trade is going to take place over the course of a few days and will give me some time to get some work done and have a life.