ground rules: . this is my thread, comments are welcome, humour in particular, intelligent criticism, challenges of assertions / assumptions i or other intelligent posters may make etc... . trading economics finance 101 type questions / comments etc, furthermore idiots, off-topic & moronic comments in general will be flatly ignored... . also, unlike those of other undeniably talented posters, this thread is likely to remain rather terse in tone, and in the absence of relevant macro-events i'm not planning to post often at all, prob no more than once a month, Q&A notwithstanding . last, for avoidance of doubt, i don't mind being wrong / proven wrong... am not here to prove anything... at best i am expecting some fruitful exchanges of ideas, views etc... at worst, well, whats to lose?... feel free to participate
2006 Nov 9 GMT 7am-ish Macro envt: - outcome of US elections -> less stick more dialogue going fwd -> economics regaining priority over politics, or at least a shift -> for next 100 days / 3 mths: *** legend: UP = UPward pressure (not necessarily going strait up), DN = ... *** WW, major economies: . confidence UP ... be it consumer, investor etc . sales UP . growth UP at least not on such a slowdown path as currently envisaged . equity indices UP . IR UP but not in a way that wld materially upset equities . trends BACK! US: . tax returns UP . budget deficit DN . trade deficit: irrelevant... balanced by NFSP for the most part but irrelevant regardless . NIIP: may continue to deteriorate, if only because even Americans, individuals or institutionals alike, prefer to hold US securities via offshore entities... . jobs remains HI . housing continues DN soft landing overall . CPI if doesn't abate on Q basis quickly, rates up a notch... combined with EU, JP etc etc rates up -> not a huge concern Commodities etc: . oil, gold, silver DN or struggling to remain at current lvls on lower geo-tensions . copper DN or struggling to remain at $350ish lvl China India not amused by inflated prices, can afford to squeeze the mkt any time . ethanol DN environmental, efficiency (lack of) concerns take priority . emissions credit trading UP Japan: . RE UP EU: same old China: substantial NPL risk, scale on a par with reserves (magnitude) India: UP Russia: UP other geographies: not material enough (no offense...) FX: . carry trade BAD . $/DXY UP . Yen Index UP thats all for now... may post current levels of appropriate benchmarks later... just wanted to dump that 1st...