Might As Well...

Discussion in 'Trading' started by 2cents, Nov 9, 2006.

  1. ground rules:
    . this is my thread, comments are welcome, humour in particular, intelligent criticism, challenges of assertions / assumptions i or other intelligent posters may make etc...
    . trading economics finance 101 type questions / comments etc, furthermore idiots, off-topic & moronic comments in general will be flatly ignored...
    . also, unlike those of other undeniably talented posters, this thread is likely to remain rather terse in tone, and in the absence of relevant macro-events i'm not planning to post often at all, prob no more than once a month, Q&A notwithstanding
    . last, for avoidance of doubt, i don't mind being wrong / proven wrong... am not here to prove anything... at best i am expecting some fruitful exchanges of ideas, views etc... at worst, well, whats to lose?...

    feel free to participate
  2. 2006 Nov 9 GMT 7am-ish

    Macro envt:
    - outcome of US elections -> less stick more dialogue going fwd -> economics regaining priority over politics, or at least a shift -> for next 100 days / 3 mths:

    *** legend: UP = UPward pressure (not necessarily going strait up), DN = ... ***

    WW, major economies:
    . confidence UP ... be it consumer, investor etc
    . sales UP
    . growth UP at least not on such a slowdown path as currently envisaged
    . equity indices UP
    . IR UP but not in a way that wld materially upset equities
    . trends BACK!

    . tax returns UP
    . budget deficit DN
    . trade deficit: irrelevant... balanced by NFSP for the most part but irrelevant regardless
    . NIIP: may continue to deteriorate, if only because even Americans, individuals or institutionals alike, prefer to hold US securities via offshore entities...
    . jobs remains HI
    . housing continues DN soft landing overall
    . CPI if doesn't abate on Q basis quickly, rates up a notch... combined with EU, JP etc etc rates up -> not a huge concern

    Commodities etc:
    . oil, gold, silver DN or struggling to remain at current lvls on lower geo-tensions
    . copper DN or struggling to remain at $350ish lvl China India not amused by inflated prices, can afford to squeeze the mkt any time
    . ethanol DN environmental, efficiency (lack of) concerns take priority
    . emissions credit trading UP

    . RE UP

    EU: same old

    China: substantial NPL risk, scale on a par with reserves (magnitude)

    India: UP

    Russia: UP

    other geographies: not material enough (no offense...)

    . carry trade BAD
    . $/DXY UP
    . Yen Index UP

    thats all for now... may post current levels of appropriate benchmarks later... just wanted to dump that 1st...