Midwest weather concerns. ( Monday 06/25/2012 ).

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by kanellop, Jun 26, 2012.

  1. kanellop


    Hello to All.

    Exist the following News:

    http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com...&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc37ec102e0138244a19b10233 .


    Monday 06/25/2012

    Midwest weather concerns.

    The concerns we have expressed about the weather patterns regarding the volitility and extreme nature of the patterns since the unusually hot weather this past March seem to be reaching another point of major concern at this time as we now enter the very important month of July. The patterns that we have described at times during the past few weeks that have allowed for good rains in the northwest Midwest, the northern Plains and Canadian Praires while short changing the southern and eastern Midwest and much of the southern US are going to move to another level of concern as the jet stream shifts further to the north and more subtropical high pressure builds into the US to take its place. And due to the configuation of the pattern with troughs in the northwest and northeast US the ridge position will be over the central US.
    This turn to hot weather and limited rainfall could not be coming at a worse time as due to the early planting of the crop this spring it will be timing out with the main pollination period for corn in the Midwest. This combined with the dry soils in much of the southern and eastern Midwest could lead to a significant reduction in corn production. Although soybeans generally respond more to August weather for pod filling this situation is concerning as crop dvelopment is running ahead of normal. And most certainly due to the dryness in the southern and eatsern Midwest many acres of double-cropped soybeans will not get planted.

    At this time model guidance shows no significant break in this pattern looking out over the next 2 weeks. But as we all know there will be be model runs on any given day that will likely indicate some benefical rains for some of the dry areas of the Midwest and it will be up to us a meteorologistes to assess these possibilities based on model consistency and model agreement. What can be said at this time is that things are likely going to get worse for the Midwest before they get better and when they get better is anyone's guess at this time.


    Posted at 10:35AM CDT 06/25/12 by Mike Palmerino


    Kind Regards,

    George Kanellopoulos.