Midnight rally

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Rickshaw Man, Mar 24, 2005.

  1. Overnight

    Overnight

    Hello?!? Any updates? You said you would update this every day.
     
    #971     Jan 13, 2021
  2. Relentless

    Relentless

    He picked a bad time to "start updating daily". We're headed south in a big way here shortly.

    Mr. "Just buy the cash close" about to get that ass waxed like he did back in March.
     
    #972     Jan 13, 2021
  3. Overnight

    Overnight

    Why would he? If you just buy at the peak of the chart he posted, it would take only a year to get back to BE! But I digress.
     
    #973     Jan 13, 2021
  4. themickey

    themickey

    Hehehe :)
     
    #974     Jan 13, 2021
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    I guess Rick had no conviction to buy the cash close this weekend, since this week was a wash on the theory.
     
    #975     Jan 15, 2021
  6. Relentless

    Relentless

    Worry not.

    He'll continue to average down and blow his sim account as per usual.
     
    #976     Jan 15, 2021
  7. Certainly not the best week to start this experiment. Buying the cash close and selling the cash open yielded a gross return of - 46,00 ES points this week - assuming actual close/open prices and not considering commissions.

    If we count the entire year so far. 10 trading sessions. The result is - 15,25 points.

    So, currently the system is in drawdown.

    If we look at December 2020, the end result was + 77,75 points. However, there were 8 gaps down with the two largest being - 44,50 and - 23,25.

    So, if being stopped on that largest gap down, the end result would probably be worse.

    I believe this is a strategy that probably comes ahead in the end in a rising market, but it requires deep pockets and will face some huge drawdowns. As such - it probably isn't a suitable strategy for compounding as one large gap down will erase much or all your profits made earlier on smaller size.

    If you trade it less aggressively, well, then you should be okay in the end.

    Here's the gross result for 2020. End result = + 545,25. Maximum drawdown = -854,25.

    upload_2021-1-16_13-7-6.png
     
    #977     Jan 16, 2021
  8. Since 2020 was a bit of an outlier year, here's the numbers for 2019. The year started in drawdown with 2 successive gaps down.

    A peak in May (sell in May and go away?) and a trough in June. The end of 2019 did really well.

    End result gross = + 349,50. Maximum drawdown = - 128,50.

    upload_2021-1-16_13-15-24.png
     
    #978     Jan 16, 2021
  9. Just a quick visual seems to indicate that the returns on this strategy correlates fairly well with the overall market. So, you might as well utilize a trend following method on the daily.
     
    #979     Jan 16, 2021
  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    It is a non-winnable strategy and does not work. It cannot. It if did, there would be thousands of funds utilizing this strategy. It is total fantasy, and an artifact of wishful thinking.

    Case in point? The OP has not posted since that nasty drop from Monday through Wednesday.

    And it is not working tonight, either.
     
    #980     Jan 17, 2021
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