this may be common knowledge, but i find overnight trading often shapes RTH trading for the ER2. so far today, the RTH high and low: 645.10 641.40 the overnight high and low: 645.10 641.70 often, both will get touched or lightly traded through, but one will serve as a boundary for the day. not always and not to the tick or anything, but it sure has been hard for me to dismiss it as random coincidence. take care and gtty - omni
It seems this overnight madness got an immense boost in June 1998 and was present ever since then. Can anyone make something out of that date ? Or was it just because of the Nasdaq bubble...
Their was a short term down blip in 1998, a management firm went bust if I recall, long term capital management.
Besides Rickshaws point. Around that time (june 98) you had the order protocol limits expanded in the minis. I do not remember the exact date but I do know that the limits were not expanded again till 2001 and then up to 250 contracts.
Watch how them pump up the futures right after the equity markets close. It might not happen today because of the holiday but let see. Globex will be open Sunday, and part of Monday, looks ripe for a little manipulation to the upside.
yeah, its par for the course these days. I've thought long and hard about it recently and I have come to my own conclusion. The big money, I believe, is acting on the idea that the next major trend in the equity markets will be down. As such, the true volume and selling comes into the market (hence lots of volume on the declines, less volatility, volume, natural price action on the rallies). If you take a look at the component stocks in the DOW Industrials, you would have a hard time making a case that those stocks are being accumulated. All I see, in general, are alot of stocks breaking down through the channel lines, trendlines, etc from those lows back in late 2002, early 2003. The leadership in the Nasdaq pretty much got annihilated in early 2005, and the big cap techs started selling off in the middle of 2004. The energy stocks have clearly been one of the main components holding up the entire SP 500, and to a lesser extent I guess you could argue part of the Dow. Meanwhile, the yield curve is flattening big time and now the Financial stocks are beginning to drift sideways to lower. They have not really confirmed the last rally higher in the indicies. Albeit the past week or so with that merger did give a boost to the financial index. I firmly believe that the rally in May-June was more of a final distribution rally. There was something along the lines of a "stealth bailout" at work after the shit hit the fan with GM, F and tech stocks were starting to accelerate lower. Now that the quarter has ended, I dont believe the institutions are going to support the markets up at these levels, rather they want in, if at all, at a bigger discount. Some guy on CNBC Europe had a good quote the other day. He basically said while Greenspan was talking about the long end of the yield curve being the conundrum, the real conundrum were the equity markets. Considering the macro forces at work, I have to agree with the guy. Anyway, everyone feel free to flame away...
vulture, I think you are 100% right. big money sees a downtrend (or at least, no upside). If you'd ask me, I'd even say 9 months. However, no generally bearish scenario, as equity markets have a general uptrend long term (therefore I said no further upside yet)