I think its a guy who trades in the pit during the day a MONSTER who has the badge AX. You see him on the other side of your trade, better go with him, I heard he has unlimited bullets and will be completely unrelenting if you try to fade him.
Did anyone see today how the hedges dumped oil {profit taking} to have liquidity to start shorting the market today----------very interesting how the "Institutions vs. Hedge Funds" game is playing out the past several days. The large institutional players are really throwing out some volume to push the closing hour and hold futures overnight. This past two months has been "fight club" and all this time the sales job of S&P 1300 is not quite sticking the way they need to really put a hurt to the hedge fund industry core shorts. If it was not for the hedges playing oil long so heavy {and profiting greatly} this game would have been over a month ago.
Your thesis is too many hedge funds in oil hence its climb up? therefore If they sell, oil goes down. Since imo $60 oil seems to be priced into the current market, If oil goes down, it helps companies bottom line hence increased earnings? Hence stocks move higher for the near term?
How come when a hedgie exits a position everyone assumes its at a profit? I thought the selling in oil yesterday looked more like stop-loss selling. Plus hedgies returns really suck lately. One guy who sends me emails updating his performance is down like 35% YTD and his cash under management is down like 50%, so dont think they all make tons of money.
Yes you are correct as the hedges are hurting this year----------that has been my premise on several threads in the last several weeks---------- the question is why. Hedges have been long oil while also building large core short positions in several areas, and one of the big areas was GM shorts---------------then what happens? Oil gets run-down {wonder who sold SOOOOOOOOOO heavy that oil dropped hard} right at the same time billionaire boys club Kirkorian announces a GM buy extra stock and increase his position deal--------then what happens? Hedges get shellacked on their long oil and short GM positions----------so yes they are hurting and all this as the market keeps moving up week after week with trimtabs saying this is not new investor monies. The monies coming in have been companies buying back their stock at record levels and institutional buying, then Thursday of last week we get a flood of European markets and treasuries monies-----------flight to quality. Since the oil/GM smack to the hedges they have been fighting back on the oil play---------the most safe and hedged play in their opinion and the best to rotate portions in and out of from a large core position for profits. The hedges are still way behind for the year as the institutions have put a hurt on their main competitors for the new investors monies {hedges on average have beat the return of institutional funds for 3 years straight}. The institutions were getting pissed at the hedges beating their performance and taking their customers more and more year after year. This fight is not over and any sort of geopolitical event could turn these tides very quick in the favor of the hedge funds. Mhashe---------The hedges HAD to sell oil yesterday to have liquidity to short equities. The hedges do not have the cash laying around {like they did at the start of the year} to add to their short equities positions so they had to get money from oil longs. looks like very little of this money went back into oil last night and today-----------the hedges are definitely in a liquidity pinch right now.
Wouldn't that be an very risky strategy right now, to short stocks while pushing the price of oil down?