This is where ya lose me. Comparing the best investment in history to a lottery ticket just sounds dumb and bitter. And what do you mean about "cherry picking returns?" Here is a tip .... just use all of bitcoin's history and the returns are fantastic. No cherry picking needed. IF you want to make the logical argument that very little people would have the technical skills to buy it in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 then fine that is fair .... start it in 2015 then. Returns are still amazing. There is no need to cherry pick here. In fact the only people that seem to cherry pick at the doubters ... they will cherry pick bear markets "if you bought at 64k in 2021, you are barely up now" type of bullshit. Now that is cherry picking.
Currently the best investment in the history, soon to be found out to have been the largest financial fraud in the history. It's like a ponzi scheme, those who are early and cash out in time make money, but the majority is left with nothing. Granted, Bitcoin and all other cryptocurrencies will still work as intended after the collapse. More so they will work even BETTER because fees will be cheaper as the hype dies out. But the crypto valuations are heavily distorted due to the fraudelent/ponzi Tether scheme.
It's funny, any time I start to think, "Am I missing something with Bitcoin?". All I have to do is look at the crazy hyperbole that comes out of the Bitcoin crowd, to remind myself that no it's just another speculative mania. Best in history huh? No one ever made a great call with an options contract and did better? Better than a ground floor investment in Apple or Microsoft? Not even the best in the last 10 years: https://www.ft.com/content/70a5566c-5c02-4dcd-9360-c2b0001f2f29
There is no denying that Bitcoin has produced astronomical returns over a 13-year period. I doubt anything else in history even comes close. Looking at the chart, though, most of the eye popping gains were prior to 2018. Since then, the returns have been on a par with other high flying investments like tech stocks. What I don't know is how much Bitcoin still relies on the get-rich-quick crowd. They may not hang around forever if it stops producing fantastic returns.
All I see is people fighting the market here and acting like they know more than the market has shown for 15 years. Good luck boys.
15 years is nowhere near long enough to judge if it will stand the test of time, as an investment, like bonds, stocks, gold.
Bitcoin has only existed during the raging bull market. Never has bitcoin seen a recession. It's a proven junk asset. Performs well during risk-on scenarios. It crashed the hardest during the Covid crash. Bitcoin relies on new suckers constantly coming in. And they are baited through price going up. Tether prints fake, unbacked dollars -> They pump the price -> People buy as price is going up Very evident from the ETF inflows also. They buy when price is going up. Once the space is cleared of bad actors or they are proven to be legit (Justin Sun, Tether,...) then we will be able to discuss Bitcoins. Right now the risks are ENORMOUS and rewards are skewed. For now the odds are largely in favor of cryptocurrencies being a a giant proxied ponzi scheme through Tether.
Could you show us the ruling that 'proves' this as a junk asset as you state? Couldn't you just throw the same blanket-statement toward precious metals like gold, and even every day collector's items and artwork?
It performs well in a risk-on environment and crashes the most in risk-off = junk asset Is there an off-shore unregulated, unaudited company that issues fake dollars at will with no proof of backing and uses them to prop up the prices of precious metals and every day collectors items and artwork? All markets are manipulated to an extent and psychology is the same, people buy because price goes up. But in crypto we have a fraudulent ponzi scheme adding oil to the fire. Tether is like the FED, but it's run by criminals and tries to avoid US regulations. What could possibly go wrong?
This is actually an excellent point and as a raging bitcoin bull, I agree with. The fact that the crypto markets are open 24/7 and have such huge liquidity means that bitcoin is always the first to take a hit. With real estate, it often takes months or years for true price discovery, and things like art or watches are even more immune from immediate price action. But the recession is what I'm excited about. Lots of people are convinced that when recession hits, the printing press will really be turned on, so that should be very positive for bitcoin. If the printing press isn't turned on, then we get to perhaps accelerate the collapse of fiat currencies. Both scenarios are good for bitcoin. But don't forget that we are in a much different climate than 2007 when spending $500B for a bailout package was considered outrageous. The numbers this time are so much bigger. And I'm not even sure if everybody is going to be on board with solution again. "Great, lets just print money like last time and hope it works again". But you're right, bitcoin will absolutely have to shine in a full on recession. I expect there will be that initial drop during the "sell anything" phase, but then I fully expect everything to fall apart. Since the economy and the dollar both can't be protected, one will have to give, and even though I expect them to protect the dollar, letting the economy go to shit will I think be just about revolution time. People already can't afford food or shelter, and crime isn't being punished, so if this is the good times, I hate to see what "recession" times will look like. And when everything starts falling apart, bitcoin, the one thing that can't be fucked with, with shine nice and bright.