For some reasons I had no confidence in bears today and so I traded smaller and exited as soon as my trades were in profits. Overall, I took 6 short trades for $587 of profits (not including commissions yet.)
A crazy down and up day today! I ended the day up a bit on my balance. On MNQ, I traded a bit pre-market and then 2 trades right after the open: The 250 sma on my 10 point range bar chart was down to flat, and all these were shorts. The MACD was high to rolling over in most cases. I missed the big down and up today on the MNQ. I had two more small scratch trades. (The times indicated are New York time minus 2 hours -- USA mountain time).
I like to look at the 4 to 6 best sine wave cycles on the 15 min ES chart. The following chart is the composite cycle. Historically, my charts only have about a 60% accuracy through the first couple of pivots, but it it will often keep me out of bad trades. In other words, if I am going to take a SHORT trade that I see a setup for, and then cycles say UP, then I may wait. I wanted to post this here today because it surprised me. I had determined that we would get a huge down day tomorrow, but the cycles show I should probably wait until at least late tomorrow afternoon: FYI, here are the various waves that make up the previous chart: This is from software produced by the Foundation for the Study of Cycles. I wish it were more accurate, but it is not. It has gotten me in a lot of trouble before, so I barely use it, and again, usually as a last-pass filter.
F^ck... I got freaked out and cut lost before job report at 8:30am or else it was going to be a nice trade.
Just short ES using 4 lots and I intend to hold it as a day/swing trade. All signs indicate that this market needs to go through a minor correction first before it makes ATHs in short term. I'd be happy to get out if ES drops 10 points from 3081.
Well, we made new all time highs again yesterday. What a ride! My mind is blown, but my account is intact. The bulls are happily frolicking in their new elevated pasture on the side of the mountain. They appear to be taking a rest. Historically Nov and Dec are strongly positive months, so it is time to really be careful. This market could continue bullish for months still. My cumulative delta lines show a probable drop to at least 3,060 on the ES and 27,100 on the YM, but the CDelta is often wrong. The CDelta's on NQ and RTY are not as strongly negative, and this is a good reason for caution, as these two often lead the market. Both bulls and bears are nervous up here in the thin air. Will "Turnaround Tuesday" live up to its name? Who knows? I think it is scalping time both long and short.
I can post this first hand... The NQ MINI generally bounces around compared to the ES Mini. but... The MNQ bounces around and skips prices on the DOM ladder more than the NQ mini. The prices on the ladder rise and fall more organized and incrementally. The are less gaps. And ALL of the prices are there...there are no skipped ticks. I did not feel uncomfortable trading one NQ Mini today live with my system. I would prefer to have 25K in my account though... instead of 7K. ES $40.00-Day, $792.00 / $720.00 Overnight (MNQ) 1 tick = $0.50, 1 point = $2.00 $500.00-Day, $7,920.00 / $7,200.00 Overnight (NQ) 1 tick = $5.00, 1 point = $20.00
hi, the micros are not traded instruments, but tradeable. they are constructed from the minis by the exchange. hedged in every milisecond which can explain the ususally wider spread and thinner volume, do not expect that all the displayed volumes are real trades, it is highly possible that most of them are traded by the exchange itself as hedgeing, but do not be mistaken it is not a bad thing. when you have a target on NQ your target on MNQ should be less with at least 3 ticks, because of the thinner volume. listen to the QO and QM which show similar behaviour, tracking exactly the GC and CL . they are also good instruments to learn to see and handle longer moves with less exposure