The luck factor is evident in the math, without even looking at the strategy. To aim for 2% a day means X amount of losing trades wipes you out, and it becomes only a matter of time and high probability that X arrives.
Trade #1 today. All time new highs. Will it keep going up all day? Or will it stall here and give me some ticks??? My 50 sma is rolling over. The short entry was made on a pop after some demonstrated weakness. The weakness was determined after the break of two small support levels. The NYSE Tick is not strong: The adv/decl is over 2:1 bullish (1800 up, 800 dn), but the ratio (blue line) is decreasing: Both the ES and NQ footprint charts are mixed: My first target is the uptrend line around 8,082, second target is the previous high at 8074:
Out at -$12. Bulls too strong. My emergency stop is -$20 per contract, but my goal is to not let that get hit. I get out when the market turns against me.
Okay, now what? It looks like I missed a great long entry. We had just broken above two minor support levels, and my 50 sma was turning up. Everything is bullish again now. But if the NYSE tick and the Adv/Dec begin to weaken, then I will consider shorts again. Will I trade long? Probably not unless we get a good pullback.
Look at all the strong Resistance levels we broke through to get up here. Wow. This is the daily ES chart. We are in "no-man's land" now. What happens up here? It could keep going up another 1% to 2% or more today and this week. I don't feel like going long up here though, and my preferred trade is to test the short side (scalps only) after some demonstrated weakness.
Ummm... this is all-time high, uncharted territory. How "strong" could those "resistance" levels really be? Ummm... so which will it be on A/D weakening: short a pullback or long a pullback? Just pointing out you are exhibiting a confused mindset at the moment.
From the outside it may appear confused, but it is not. Things are shifting a bit. We are now below the DPOC (developing point of control) on the ES. And the YM has rolled over. Once things start to shift, I go into full-on scalping mode. If I take a short, it will be on a pop after demonstrated weakness. If I take a long, it will be on a dip after demonstrated strength. There is a lot going on, but I am now looking to take shorts on MYM and longs on MNQ. I go long on the stronger of the two and short on the weaker. The middle skinny chart is the daily candle with the POC as the yellow tick. Notice the Cumulative Delta (light blue) is down on the YM and the RTY. I will trade for bigger moves only when both the MYM and MNQ are heading the same direction. Right now the NQ is still crazy strong.
The NQ (MNQ) is in a tight range at the moment. Unless we break above 8112 or below 8095, then my RANGE RULES dominate. These say I may only trade toward the midline at 8103.
For some reason, Im finding ET quite interesting today. So as of right now, NQ has an RTH H/L point range of 36.25, and A tight range is being defined as 17 points (8112-8095), or 47% of the RTH H/L range. Like I said, I'm finding ET quite interesting today.