I honestly don't know what you are doing here @sstheo with this volume profile analysis. Based on the stats you share thus far, you are one the best all time traders here. You don't break down the summary of your trades for each day, but given only 2 losing days thus far, which were very much in line with your average winning days, your track record is stellar. This volume profile analysis is not going to help with your style of trading which seems to be to just take little bites. This volume profile analysis will require wider stops and longer holding times, both of which you don't do. Adding in another "thing" to look at will just make it that much harder to make a decision. You already say that cumulative delta is mostly wrong, but that you still like it because it at least helps you stay out of a bad trade. Well this volume profile analysis will give you tunnel vision because you will be convinced that the market is running for some magic number when it in fact might never get there. Honestly, if your stats and trades are legit, don't change a thing, and just work on adding more contracts. You have what looks to be an almost impossible 90% win rate. So milk it for all you can while it still works, and see if the pressures of trading larger size don't mess it up. But don't go messing up what you have so far by adding in more stuff that will just end up making trading more difficult. I could understand if a guy with a 50% win rate wanted to maybe add something to squeeze out an extra 10% (kind of like maybe what you do with cumulative delta). But with such a high win rate already, adding in volume profile analysis will not help and only hinder.
Thanks for your encouragement. I understand what you are saying about being really careful to not dilute my decision making ability by adding in too much crap to look at. You may have seen one of my favorite charts (posted on Sep 2). I am aware of the risks of too many indicators, for sure. I have the consolidation scalps down pat (70% of the day), but the big missing piece in my puzzle is getting even a fraction of the breakout moves and the huge expansion moves (30% of the day). Volume analysis is my attempt at being competent with 100% of the day's action each day. The irony is that most traders are patiently focusing on the 30%, and some of those guys make a killing. It seems like I should be able to learn at least a fraction of what they know. And I talk daily with a few of them. By no means am I trying to replace how I trade, but during the other 30%, instead of SOH (sitting on hands), I am now trying to add another tool to my tool box, and capture a bit. For example, up until about 3 weeks ago, TAKING A LONG AT THE HIGH OF THE DAY would have been unthinkable to me. But we had already surpassed R1, and R2 was the logical next stop on a big bull run. The old me might have tried to fade the entire move up to R2, but instead I optimistically went long with a couple other guys and got "paid" for my trust in their many years of professional experience. Some days I have 10 to 15 trades, and I am also running a real estate business. But I can do better about a daily trade summary. I have been consistent with my win rate for many, many years now, but my problem has been not consistently honoring my stops. This exercise, and this journal, have helped me. So everyone reading here is helping me. So thanks!
OMG, that is changing a thing... Do NOT take a long at the high of the day! Have you not been following my journal? During normal market conditions, sure, but this market is abnormal. Even the stoutest of analysts are admitting that they have never seen anything like what we are seeing now in 2019. DO NOT CHANGE A THING, or I will taunt you a second time. Elderberries!
Yup, you're gonna fuck up real bad. Sorry to say but I already see the train wreck coming. We aren't doing this shit to figure out the god damn market. We are doing this to make money. If you can place 10 trades a day and capture 50 ticks, you don't need anything else. What are you fucking with this for? Work on trading size because the emotional hit from trading size is what you need to work on, not figuring out how to place a trade in any market condition and figuring out what the market is doing 100% of the time. You uploaded this chart the other day. You put a zero on the end of the Net Profit column and you don't need to do anything else with your life or anything else with your trading. Putting that zero on will simply come from trading the full contract. If you start changing how you trade now, all of these stats you have will be out the window. I'm not sure if you can maintain the 2.3% average daily gain over the course of even a month, but if you can capture anything like 30, 40 or 50 ticks on average per day, you'll be a millionaire in no time. Just work on this consistency. Your path of figuring out "other tools in your toolbox" will derail you.
Seaweed wins the post of the year award thingy. sstheo, I hope by now you see how we are scaring you straight. Yes, that is a thing. We want to scare you straight. You are doing so very very well. Just roll with what you are doing. Remember, the market conditions we currently have will most likely remain until after the election next year. So you got a year to earn money with your wonderful discipline. DON'T change a thing, or I will haunt you a third time. And since I have not yet had to haunt you, I think I have three hauntings in reserve! *shakes fist* lol!
You are doing a great job...keep it up! Could you post the link to Gain's commissions? I traded back in the day with them through Fastbrokers. Thanks
Thanks. For my other account (not the one from AMP profiled here) I trade with Gain through Stiker.com, who appears to be an Introducing Broker for Gain via a "white label" arrangement. My commissions are higher with Striker.com. I don't see a commission page for Gain, and I don't see one for Striker. Candidly, because of the higher commissions on both the micros and the regular E-mini's I have no clue why anyone would do business with either of these companies unless they were involved in the mirror trading (trade copying) I mentioned previously as either a subscriber or a live account signal provider. If you want to kick back and trade passively OR you have a system that kicks butt, then I would contact Striker immediately. Otherwise, stay with AMP or NinjaTrader brokerage or any number of other great services.
This link is pricing for US exchanges at futuresonline.com... the old OpenECry (OEC). Futuresonline is a futures trading arm of Gain Capital, who is also parent to Forex.com. https://futuresonline.com/exchanges/?exchange_cat=1