One day I saw a momentary 50+ tick discrepancy, and somebody was really happy on their fills. If I placed some out-of-value shorts and longs then they might occasionally get filled. Is this what you are talking about?
It was probably faster than a picosecond. But just enough for an out-of-value order to be filled. Please review the context of my comment.
I have now crossed the $100 profit mark... I made three long trades off the bottom. One on MNQ, and two on MYM. The Dow (MYM) appeared to be the stronger of the two based on % change from the previous day's close. I use the floor pivots and we were at S2 on the ES at 2958, so I felt we were "oversold." Also, as mentioned yesterday, I also saw the uptrend line from 2 weeks ago and the daily 20 period SMA. Gave me lots of confidence. If I were a better trader, I would have captured some of the great shorting action this morning. I will get there.
I'm looking to short next week. My cycle analysis is displayed in attachment. Cycle suggests down move then.
I love looking at cycles. I use them at times too. I have found them to be accurate about 60% of the time, but that is an edge worth watching. Can you explain a bit more about what the chart is showing?
I updated my spreadsheet, and also added an 6-month expectation column based on my average % gain. I am currently at $3,600 for the 6 month projection, but I am working hard to get that up to $10,000 - and then actually hit it.
Here is the composite cycle plot for the ES 30 minute chart. It shows "down" until tomorrow morning at 7 am EST, and then "up" through the 12th until 6 am EST. (Warning: only 60% accurate!) I pull this chart up just a couple times per week because it is unreliable. I use it more to keep me out of bad trades than to look for new entries. I often plot the 5 minute chart as well and only go in the direction of the big trend on the 30 min chart. Here is the 5 min chart just to complete the picture: As you can see, it is aimless through the market close today but peaks at about 9 pm EST. It then drops to 2 am EST. (Warning: only 60% accurate!)
Thanks, I appreciate that. 1% per day long term would actually be pretty awesome, but I really do think I can beat that on a sustained basis. I just have to not commit account suicide by over-leveraging and stop-moving and other stupid habits that I have now raised to a beautiful art form. If I am going to make it, then I need to be patient and wait for the good trades to come to me, and follow all the rest of my rules. We are all searching for the Holy Grail of Trading. I propose that the Holy Grail is DISCIPLINE.