LOL, I love the inclusion of "lunch!" I haven't used "time" for quite a while. It has been about 5 years now since I started using range bars. But you just reminded me of a cycles trader who used 5 minute bars quite successfully. He was able to predict the time of the next high or low about 80% of the time. On the stops, are you saying get out before the stops are hit when you feel the trade has run its course?
Yea I traded long a little in the MES this morning and early afternoon. I am visiting Dad and Mom in the US and on the road traveling to Mexico so I didn't trade last night although I saw the move up. But on the 10:50 bar I took a long trade this morning then averaged in as it move against me on the 10:55 and 11:05 bar then should have exited with a profit on the 11:15 bar but decided to hold and ended up getting stopped out with a loss on the position and by bar 12:05 was completely out with a loss. (This was a 5 min chart) But then I entered long again and averaged down between 12:25 and 12:35 bars and exited on bar at 2:00. With this trade I recouped my loss and was up about 100 bucks. Then on the 2:00 bar and 2:05 I averaged down again and exited on the 2:25 bar bringing my profit to 285.00 then I just stopped as time to eat ribs from the grill. So I traded the micro ES or MES today and ended up with 285 before comm. How did you do? You might would have done better shorting with your strategy??
$285 is a good day, however you look at it! Congrats. I ended up taking just one short on MNQ. I got $5. Considering today's confusing action near all time highs, I was quite happy with the $5! The next move up could be just as powerful as the last two days, but it seems like the bulls want to take a breather now. They want to let the bears lick some of their wounds and maybe even build up some confidence for the next trading day or two as the market drops a bit. But I think it will be short lived as these bulls trigger yet another short covering rally and make those bears regret they had been born.
Here is my progress so far. I have traded the Micros for 8 days now. I started with $1006 and am up $68, for an average daily gain of .84% (not compounded). So I am at less than half of 2% goal, but I am still earning about 200% per year so far. I will continue to do my best to reach $10,000 in 6 months safely, following all my rules. Thanks for following along.
Today it was a tight range at the top of a powerful move up from last week. I got just one trade. Fortunately, I got the direction right. (I did not trade on Friday because of wedding preparations for my daughter.) Here is a bigger picture view. This is my daily ES volume delta chart. Red is selling aggression, green is buying aggression, and gray is neutral. The yellow dots are the POCs for that 24 hour session. The breakout from August's range was a strong one, and I think it can keep going, but it looks to me like we should get a pullback to Thursday's low at 2,950 ES and then keep moving to 3000 and then ultimately 3025 which is the fib extension on the move up from the lows on this chart. Alternatively, 2965 might provide the support to keep the bulls alive; that would be at the uptrend off the lows. Notice that I use the BODIES of the candles for the trend lines. I think the bodies give a better representation of the where the true value lies. The orange moving average is 20 period, and the yellow is 8 period. Clearly they are showing an uptrend here as well. I am NOT swing trading, but it still helps me to have a bigger picture view in my head. I take many counter-trend trades, but going WITH the trends seems to have a higher success ratio.
On the left is the YM. On the right is the MYM. As you can see, the spread is a bit wider on the micros.
I watched some more. Most of the time they are the same, but at light volume times the micros are not as liquid. ym mym nq mnq I do think this will improve as the volume picks up even more. I think the volume will continue to pick up as (1) the volatility doesn't die down with the trade war and people need more room for their trades to develop, and (2) just like with other things, it takes time for great ideas to spread. So I think more and more people will begin to see the benefit of the micros, even at the higher relative commission rate.
The volumes will be what you see. They have been established over the last four months. They will now ghost the daddy contracts. WYSIWYG. Do some research on the MGC as compared to the GC on bid/ask spreads, and you will see that once it is established, it will hold. That thing is what, 9 years old? Want to have some fun? Start teasing the ladder on the Dec equity micros. Just one contract. Be like a snake with a forked tongue. The spread you see is totally normal when comparing the micro to the mini, but is does not mean your trading plan is void. Use the mini as a tracker for the micro. You'll get your fills. This is not Class IV milk we're talking here.
The spread may be wider, but if you shoot in an order at midpoint between bid and ask you'll often see that it will get filled. I have that experience with MES.