Of course I don't blindly jump in based on my "sentiment" readings; I still wait for the signal that says "okay it is finally time to fade this move."
I ALWAYS welcome other viewpoints. I may have been trading longer, but your two eyes are just a good as mine. Please post away! It sounds like you and I have similar scalping styles, with a high win rate. And then we have trouble with some of the rules. We need to remember that "capital preservation" is #1 and "profits" is #2. This account and journal are my attempt at mastering #1, and tweaking #2. I think if catastrophic losses are prevented, then the cash will take care of itself. What do you think? So what am I doing now? I am allowing my stops to get hit. No emotion. 100% rule following. There is no other alternative in this world of tariffs and tweets!!! In fact, I am at this moment considering tightening my stops. I can only do this at this time because I am on micros. It was too hard for me with a small account using the regular E-minis. The emotion was too high. Of course that was sheer stupidity; holding on to losing trades is the most idiotic thing yet everyone does it because we are most afraid of being "wrong" than making money. Better to get flat immediately and reassess, reentering later if the original "long" thesis (for example) turns out to be correct. Each and every moment must stand on its own. If I am in a trade, and I wouldn't ENTER the new trade at this price and at this time and in the same direction I am currently trading, then shouldn't I get out immediately? Hmmm. So hard! Tell me your new method "to put a stop to those bad habits" of breaking rules during volatility and reducing the counter-trend trading??? I bet many could benefit. Next Level, here we come indeed.
I find looking at short term charts (not daily's) can be bad for me. Just today, I'm long gbpaud and was looking at 15 minute charts even though my hold time might be several days. I was watching and price quickly jumped down about 20 pips and I'm thinking, "is this a reversal?". I continued watching and price went back to what it was before after 5 minutes or so. So I try to avoid looking at intra day charts and focus on daily's because I hold for several days. I will look at intra day to do fibs.
Such action is good for averaging down. Get out BE on first entry and head for the bank on successive averaged down contracts. This happens over and over in the session and generally 3 to 4 sessions a week.
Because of the fractal nature of the markets, your swing trading and my scalping are actually almost IDENTICAL. It is one of the greatest mysteries in trading how this can be. (Take a 500 bar 1 day chart and a 500 bar 1 minute chart with no markings and try to tell which is which...) But it is all about the patterns we humans generate related to fear and greed. Why does the market almost always go down 7 times faster than it goes up? Why do there tend to be 3 distinct waves up in a long leg? Why do bottoms tend to be "V" shaped and fast and tops tend to be rounded and slow? Why do consolidation ranges tend to have so many false breakouts? Why does the market tend to go the direction that seems to hurt the most number of people? (mainly me, LOL!) The list of questions can go on for a long time. I used to trade stocks, options and forex, and may yet go back to both of them. So all my work here is 99% transferable to other markets -with longer time frames. In your case, it is very bad to look at short term charts, unless you only do it to improve your actual entries. But that is it IMHO. Keep up the good work.
Earlier today I said we would probably take out the Over Night Highs. We finally did near the close. I thought we might because the overnight up-thrust had lots of gusto, and appeared to be more than just a short-covering rip-your face off rally. Because of that strong momentum, I figured the prices would continue UP after a pause - which is what usually happens. And they did. Now my purpose must be to try to profit from my perfunctory profundities--since I usually miss the good moves....
Wow, what an overnight move on news of China trade war talks! ES reached 2970. (Up 40 ES points from my last posted chart.) Probably will go to 3000. Waiting to trade until I can see things clearly. Jumping in expecting more UP is a fools game. Expecting a full reversal is foolish too. Probably time to go into scalping mode. Maybe I can get $10 micro swings...
Well, I was the fool today. I missed the long. And apparently, there is a lot of BIG money pushing up. The internals are strong today, and it doesn't matter what I think the market should do. That's for sure! Were you able to get some today on the long side?
I think before anyone trades, they should know the whys and what to do next. I not read whole post, but I use good deal of "time" and will change target to "breakeven plus lunch" after so much time as back testing shows me overstaying a trade going not direction originated, best to get out, make a little coin on ave down entries and look for other signals. But to let stops be hit even though the temperature of the trade has cooled down seems foolish, but depends on one's back testing.