MHP is trading 32.64, down $1.15 with IV30™ up 20.4%. <img src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_hMry1m7UF10/S-Azo-I6EqI/AAAAAAAACLg/vCddldDfKco/s1600/mhp_summary.gif"> The company has traded over 4,800 options in the first hour on total daily average option volume of just 595. All but 287 contracts have been puts for a 16:1 put:call ratio. The largest trades have been put purchases in the back months. The Stats Tab and Day's biggest trades snapshots are included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/05/mhp.html">in the article</a>). The Options Tab (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/05/mhp.html">in the article</a>) illustrates a bunch of stuff. 1) Aug 30 puts are most active - from what I can tell that OI is long as well, so this is a "double" down. 2) The OTM puts in Jan '11 are trading (purchases). I believe (but not sure) that exisitng OI in Jan '11 25 puts is also long. I can't tell in the Jan '11 30 puts. 3) The Nov 25 and 30 puts are also trading in Nov - purchases on low open interest - these are opening bets. 4) MHP probably has earnings in the Aug cycle - note the vol at the top. It's lower in August than May. Although earnings are a known vol event, the summer is generally very slow and vol tends to bottom in August. Interesting... The Skew Tab snap is included (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/05/mhp.html">in the article</a>). You can see the shape in general is pretty normal on the downside - a bit under stated on the upside (i.e. there is usually a flattening out to the upside - that isn't the case here). To read why skew exists and how it forms you can <a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/01/solarfun-solf-call-purchases-with.html">go here</a>. You can also see the front month (red) is above the earnings month (green). Finally, the Charts Tab (6 months) is below (<a href="http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/05/mhp.html">in the article</a>). The top portion is the stock price, the bottom is the vol (IV30™ - red vs HV20™ - blue). The yellow shaded area at the very bottom is the IV30™ vs. the HV20™ vol difference. MHP has sputtered over the last few weeks, dropping more than 10% as IV30™ rises. The rating agencies are on the hook and have been for a while - but they always seem to skate free. They even got a nice little comment from the Oracle of Omaha himself, Mr. Warren Buffet calling them and other rating agencies: "incredibly wonderful businesses." <a href="http://www.thedeal.com/sense/2010/05/sense_of_the_markets:_buffett_on_moody%27s_and_moats.php">Reference</a>. Maybe the tide will turn - the gov't will actually follow through on GS and then the agencies... or not... If you're in the "not" camp - calls are relatively cheap to puts (see skew tab), and especially in the earnings month (which has low vol relative to May). If you're in the "tide will turn" camp - spreading the earings month may be a play. This is trade analysis, not a recommendation. Details, prices, trades, vols, skews, here: http://livevol.blogspot.com/2010/05/mhp.html