Fence don't work if you are the one letting the dogs in and then complaining about them shitting on your lawn.
Exactly, they are not going to do a thing to abate illegal immigration across their Northern border. Trump knows this and is simply going to tilt the entire table and attempt to bring companies back into our country. I've noted you don't think that is what will occur. I personally think that products from Mexico will simply become more expensive commensurate with the tariff rate and ultimately the US consumer will pay for it.
Absolutely! And I have yet to meet at demoncrat who pays their gardener as a corporation. Bunch of hypocrites, the republicraps also. Here's a fun little diddy: https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/res...o-confrontation-employee-viral-203236982.html
You are right, I don't think that is what will occur. Did you also note my reason for thinking that it won't occur? I can restate. To move a large manufacturing facility back from Mexico into the United States is not a simple switch on the wall, as you well know. Forget about the pricing of products, the margin compression and other competitive landscape that we would have to bring into the equation. Let's pretend we have the monopoly on manufacturing a product that everyone wants, and will buy at any price (so we remove the pricing discussion). Just consider what the decision entails to move manufacturing back into the US from a facility you are already operating in Mexico. The site scope, the local/municipal/state negotiation, the labor studies, your logistical concerns and network interfacing with your new plant, materials sourcing and procurement, machine tooling, all the bids that go into plant design and construction, and the actual time it takes to actually construct the facility. Ignore tax law and other complicated stuff like hiring and training employees, supervisors, etc. So you have all this data sitting in your lap, you - the CEO of your company that has a monopolistic hold on the market. Forget about the time it takes to get all this data, assume you got it delivered by stork and dropped in your lap. Now you look at the man everyone seems to hate (because the media is telling you this) and you note that now, you begin to hate him too because he is effecting your livelihood. And you note that this man only has a short time left in office unless he gets re-elected, which you believe grows less and less likely every day (whether this is true or not is irrelevant, it is what you think because you hear it everywhere in the media and your own personal biases are now beginning to exert themselves upon your decision making). Do you make the investment to move your facility or do you wait, and perhaps even actively contribute to those making sure that the current President is a one-term wonder and once the new guy (or girl) gets in office, he/she will immediately remove all these silly and ineffectual tariffs and let everyone get back to work? I agree with your last statement. Products from Mexico will become more expensive, and the US consumer will pay for it. Companies that produce in Mexico that have a US competitor might have to suffer margin compression for a time.
Tsing, no fair running real options simulations down here in the world of tribal monkeys on a merry go round slinging dung at each other.
More importantly, if it costs less to produce in Mexico why would you close down there and move to pay higher wages and taxes? As you said, any company can simply wait out a President.