Message boards have been way to bearish

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Debaser82, May 8, 2013.

  1. If you spent some time on messageboards like I did these last 5 years you can now say sentiment has been way to negative.

    Day after day, week after week, year after year....

    Talk about deficits, unemployment, hyperinflation, upcoming revolution (lol), peak oil, peak prosperity etc etc

    Thousands and Thousands of people worrying about the future when they should have just bought stocks and go to the beach.

    I was lucky to have been big into gold early (-500$) ofsetting my loss in goldstocks and my absence of being into the stockmarket.

    Some valuable Lessons for me here I hope I do better over the next years
  2. gmst


    well said. Although things like Arab spring revolution etc did happen, but overall even with twitter free internet etc., chances of big/massive impacts is pretty less.

    If we look back at 20th century, big events would be:

    1) Russian revolution
    2) WWI
    3) WWII
    4) Breakup of British Empire
    5) Cold War
    6) Korea War/Vietnam/Iran-Iraq/Operation Desert Storm
    7) Emergence of China

    So, over a 100 year period, talking about geo-political thing, less than 10 big things.

    Economically also, I would say less than 5-6 really big things in a century.

    This empirical evidence over the last 100 years means that massive/BIG events are pretty rare.
  3. Yeah, the housing bubble was just a blip. What a great thread.
  4. gmst


    LOL. Housing bubble burst in 21st century.
  5. Subprime is well contained.

    The great fear is what happens when the markets become free again.

    I don't think secular bear markets end with a crash like 2009 but rather with an investing malaise by the general public that was last seen at the end of 1940's and the 1970's. Today there is a general hatred with the market rally that could be interpreted as greed wanting back in.
  6. I too am guilty. There are convincing arguements that the economy is in the crapper hence the negative sentiment.
  7. Oh god poser, stop. You can't remember what you had for breakfast and you're going to preach that we're in a New Age. I made no reference to the 20th century. Less that 5Y ago the S&P was at 666.

    And bank prop watch Ichimoku charts, right?
  8. gmst


    Yes you didn't mention 20th century, I just added it. Whats there to get upset about it?? Don't like the thread - go away. If you like it, stay here in a friendly way.
  9. Economic point on a calendar of things that should stand out : And There Goes 5%! Avg. Junk Bond Yield Falls To 4.97%

    The 5% yield barrier has proved no match for this Federal Reserve-fueled junk-bond market, which last night reached yet another all-time record-low average yield-to-worst of 4.97%, according to the Barclays US High Yield Index. It marked a new level of market capitulation to central-bank forces as it’s the first time the index has dipped below 5% in its 30-year history (before January the market had never even fallen below 6%). The average price of 107.31 cents on the dollar also marks a record high.

  10. Personally, I trade the market, not the economy. Much more profitable.
    #10     May 8, 2013