According to a slew of indicators that Richard Bernstein follows. 12-month expected return has now risen to +14% from last month's +9%. New 12-month target is 1030. A "Sell-Side" sentiment indicator that takes a contrary view of asset-allocation sentiment on Wall Street is indicating a +14% return, according to Bernstein.
Precise indicators are a license to brag, but don't mean much more than tea leaves and ouiji boards. How did his system do in 2008 from the beginning of the year? I have my hopes on a 1250-1350 S&P.
Admittedly, his forecasts are not pinpoint peak or trough technical forecasts. They are TREND forecasts based on about 7 indicators. These indicators can certainly be volatile from month-to-month. For example, an Inflation/PE model went from an expected return of -14% last month ( and its worst reading in history, Aug.2008 ) to an expected annualized return of +40% this month. Pretty volatile indeed.