"The proposed merger was subject to one of the longest-ever running reviews at the FCC, becoming entangled with the struggle between Democrats and Republicans over the Hispanic vote. Univision Chairman and Chief Executive Jerrold Perenchio has been a major supporter of Republican candidates, while Spanish Broadcasting's Chief Executive Raul Alarcon tips slightly toward the Democrats." Seems this arb was quite a bit like an option that either was worth $2 or some large negative amount. This was no lock.
Sioux and Joe Trader - thanks for your pointers. I personally think there is a way to rethink the merger arb game - hence the interest in obtaining data. I'm yanking it out from a Bloomie one deal at a time, so not very efficient at all. btw, just to give back - everyone interested in merger arb should read the Mitchell Pulvino paper (2001). The work there is quite definitive on traditional merger arbs.