I have an awesome paper trading system. You said you would die for it! However, my question is whether or not you would be willing to KILL for it? That's the bar. Ask yourself, would you KILL for it? If you are willing to kill for my system the risk, to me, would be too great. Go long. It's a bull market! (Hat tip to @speedo)
While it's true that the choices can be boiled down to trend and mean reversion, there needn't be a transition from one to the other; they can occur simultaneously given that a trend itself has a mean. And if one draws his trendline using Wyckoff's guidance (swing points), all this can be determined technically. For example, the NQ is currently heading toward the upper limit of its trend channel, having bounced off the lower limit the last week of October. The mean is 6300. The upper limit, as of now, is around 6480 (it will rise as the days go by since the channel is diagonal). One can argue about the placement of a trend line, but the point is that these things are watched, and reversals can be expected if and when price reaches these limits. Experience and common sense? Yes. Price doesn't always turn on a dime. But it pays to be aware of these aspects of mean reversion.
By FT do you mean Financial Times? What do they trade? McKinsey the management consultants, are they trading wheat futures these days? Goldman does not engage in prop trading but according to you they are trading $20m of futures a day. What you selling, Timdung?
Interesting point of view, by saying this are you saying that 95% of the losing trader are troubled teenagers or dysfunctional adults ?