This is such a perceptive post, beyond essential to read and digest. All the fuss and argument over whether MA cross-over strategies work or whether double tops and head-and-shoulders and pin bars work and whether the Turtle system works any more - its all BS. It serves no purpose except to inflate the misplaced emphasis on entry patterns and to bolster the impression that there is an infinite number of systems and if only we could find the right one then that would stop us losing. In fact almost any system that truly follows trends and almost any system that truly acknowledges reversals will work. What stops then being profitable is either inconsistent application by the trader or the laborious complications that vendors insert to make clients think they are getting something of real and unique value.
"A esperança é a última que morre!" Without it, we do nothing... I think the key thing is IN WHAT this hope is based.
Kind of agree with this but very hard to do for them as losing traders often try too hard by participating at the expense of being grounded and becoming less self absorbed. There is a spiritual element to trading, probably would make for an ideal life school for troubled teenagers and dysfunctional adults.
Something that rather stuck in my mind of all the bull and bluster I have read over the years is how Rockefellar gave 10% of his earnings to his local church to use for the local poor etc. I expect he was popular guy when he returned.
That's what Tom Baldwin did in the treasury bond futures just before the figure came out. He would take the largest orders.
Added to this, if you find 2 products that are correlated by 0.85 or more- you can spread trade those two products when they are on extremes of their correlation. So essentially when the correlation is out of whack by -2.5 standard deviations- buy one and sell the other. I think if you have something that back tests on a product well over 3 years- then trade that strategy manually on that one product. You will never find a stray that works across more than 3 products all the time. I think you have probably found some good stuff but probably didn’t know when you had found it and what you should have done with it when you found it. Pm me and we can have a chat over Skype.
I love it when people bring out the 90% of traders fail stat. For 2 reasons. 1. Because it’s true and is more like 95%. 2. Because the 5% that make it are in the 5% because they goose to be. The 95% of failures chose to give up. So when you say to yourself- fuck it- I tried but I’m not able to do it- you are the only person saying you can’t do it. If you are listening to others- then you are badly supported in Your life goals. If you have personal friends and family that believe in you and who are willing to support your goals- then you are already becoming part of the 5%. If you blow up 2 accounts and learn from your mistakes- you should start a third. Quitters (the95%) all have one thing in commom- the decide to quit. The decide to not try different paths, the decide not to find a mentor, not to apply to a prop firm trainee program. They decide not to get up and trade the early morning opens.
Totally agree- a good mentor will not want any money. Don’t fall for the slate of retail trading courses. That said- there are some GREAT programs out there. The Amplify Trading 3 month/9 week program is exceptional for technical and fundamental analysis, trading psychology and entry and exit strategies.