I'm looking for a mentor. Someone with good knowledge of spread trading and more specifically Grains and livestock.
I think since S&P bought the GSCI indices, they have changed the roll methodology. Have not looked at it for a while so take my word with a brick of salt.
Check out seasonalgo. It's a web-based tool that lets you look at seasonal patterns for just about every commodity and spread combination. The Goldman Roll should show up as a seasonal bias for calendar spreads. (I am a subscriber but have no affiliation with the company)
ALMOST everyone you will run across over the internet that says they are a trader/mentor/whatever trading related will be a fraud. I have seen it over and over again since I've been in this business. Trust no one.
Well, there are two factors in play there. First, people go to the Internet to get something they don't get in real life, in this case respect. Second, nobody real would give up the magic for free (I know I would not - everything I say here is stuff that's well know, I never speak of my strategies or my thought process). The only real chance of learning something valuable is finding a real job with a fund or a bank. There you get to learn stuff in exchange for doing their scut work.
Once you come to the realization of temporal nature of everything.. most everything is not held onto.
In normal day trading, there are very few juicy tidbits that are kept to oneself, when you come to areas where the markets are thinner played, no one says how to trade them unless you paying out some huge bucks. I would never teach Goldman Roll or a host of other plays(old contract/new contract)(last 4 & front 2 business days in month) in spreads as it is tough enough for me to get into them, same goes with other tricks I have discovered with certain areas of trading. Anything someone could pay me for my tidbits would hurt me in long run. You have ideas, and you back test them. It is like back testing 500 hours for 1 hour of trading then automate it. One thing that has kept me in the game long time is making it in long term timeframes, have an idea of Commodities being too high or low, and keep that idea and manage risk. Everyone is always afraid of missing some move when they should be concentrating on missing the drawdowns of S&P500 Index, you don't have to do that much better than the Index to do much better than the Index, you do have to not have as bad drawdowns, you cut drawdowns in half, and you will do much better than the Index without really doing better. Instead of studying new ways to get in, study risk.
Instead of studying new ways to get in, study risk. this should be in a special section here on ET somewhere..so succint... so true !!