Es is completely dead in this 10 vix market for daytraders. Those who don't agree are obviously holding for more than a day.
I pull an average of 6 points per day... there is still 14 points of range per day on the ES going back 12 months, sure it is not the 22 points of range from last 10 years, but it is still workable. you just can't shoot for more than 2-3 points per trade. and we did have alot of days last fall at 16-20 points of range.
I find posts like this interesting. First of all, from my foggy memory, I do think I like most of what you post and unless I'm wrong, you are a profitable trader. So assuming this, I have to also believe what you say about the ES being dead in this environment. But when I look at the ES, I see typically at least a 10 point range during RTH that bounces off fairly often from key levels. (today of course is just a fluke given how perfectly the previous day high and low worked). I would assume that a day trader is targeting 3-4 points, or even a little less, and then using stops that are hopefully not more than 2 points. Clearly if a strategy requires 15 point targets and 5 point stops, it can get very difficult because you never hit your target, and after 1 stopout, it very hard to make your money back. But given what you say, then it must mean that the day traders you are thinking about need these type of stops and targets. The reason I find this interesting is because I consider a 4 or even 5 point stop huge. To me, having to use a stop like this means that you really don't know where the market will turn, and that you are giving it too much room work work. I see posts on the ES journal thread where guys are just blindly adding to losing trades, averaging down and hoping to get rescued, but this certainly isn't a sound strategy in my opinion. (at least not for the day trader) Anyway, maybe its a bit too cocky or me to say, but I think that if a trader was killing it when the moves were much bigger, it shouldn't be too hard to adapt for the current environment. When you know the daily range is much less, your stops can also be much less, and likewise, your targets have to be less as well. Perhaps its not worth it to some traders, but if a trader was only doing well in high volatility, I wonder if they were trading, or just getting lucky by jumping on a move and hoping for it to continue. The statistical nature of the markets with regards to average win, average loss, win rate, that sort stuff doesn't change. The numbers change of course, but the nature of win some, lose some, try again, that is all the same.
Gotcha. You literally spelled out my exact strategy. Are you sure you're not spying on me? I use a two point stop on every single trade I enter on the ES. I target for 3 points when the VIX is less than 13. Which it has been for a long time. If A trade is fizzling out on me and I can still take a one or two point Profit I'll do it. I pay very close attention to volume as a rule for entering or staying in a trade. I trade on three minute chart and use a volume parameter as a rule to enter a trade. It is very easy for me to see when volume dries up and it's time to exit the trade. Good luck to you.
I see. By the way we did have a 31 point day range on the ES this month. I don't have my journal in front of me to look at what day that was. I think it was two Fridays ago. It wasn't nice gift I made 13 points that day! And I did pull a 5 point trade this week. But those events are rare. If your gonna do the ES you have to be happy with 1-3 point winners. Some days are gonna be 0 as well.
Two years is just a drop in the bucket when it comes to trading proficiency- it can take many years to develop a confirmed working method edge, with many never achieving this. When you say you aren't having any luck, what does that mean? How are you measuring yourself? Are you taking notes on every trade regarding the reason why you entered, how it behaved vs expectations, any mistakes made along with noted profits/losses? You have to keep notes in order to help track progress. Ideally, progression should be from losing big, to losing small, to basically just losing commission, which means you've finally gotten rid of your inherent bias. At that point you need to work on your method to start earning consistent gains. Your best bet for a mentor is to ask your relatives if there is someone who trades well in the family. I say this because people who have learned how to trade well likely did so at great effort, time, expense, and sacrifice to develop that skill. The nature of trading being an open system means that any skill that become widely known is neutralized, and no skilled trader has any desire to risk endangering their system, but they might do it for a relative with a pledge for keeping it in the family. You can't entice someone by paying to teach you because if they are good, they don't need/want your money. If they agree to teach you, there's a good chance they make more money teaching rather than trading. One solid piece of advice I got from a book from author Al Brooks- use your system to complete a full map of pricing at the end of the day to show your best entries and target exits. That's the solution of the day. Now look at it and try to work from the edge at the start of the day to see if you can pick up any recurring patterns of signals to help you construct your solutions in advance. This is training your mind to seek out solutions. Be prepared to take a loooong time getting proficient, if ever. The success rate for traders who can earn a living trading is less than 10% - the odds are against you big time right from the start, so you have to approach it with that level of seriousness and sobriety.
You're very confusing to me. Back on June 10th 2017 you stated "I will be going live again in the next few months. The last time I was trading in the ES was August 2015". Therefore, I can only assume you're talking about "simulator trading" the Emini ES futures right now considering we're still in June. Regardless, it does not change the fact of what you see in the price action. Yeah, you're correct...trading Emini ES futures is still workable... Yet, I like to add such is possible for a profitable veteran trader of Emini ES futures. In contrast, not for a newbie trader in current market conditions although there may be some exceptions out there. I think part of the problem is that a lot of traders entering in today's markets have not realistic expectations of what's possible in the Emini ES futures or any other Emini futures. They see the ranges and assume they can pull a few points out of that type of range. Lets look at one fact you mentioned. You talk about 14 points of range per day on the Emini ES going back 12 months. Reality, the trade method (not the range) will determine how much of that is a trade opportunity. Thus, that average 14 points of range per day may only have 2 - 3 points of trade opportunity...more or less depending upon the trade method and maybe 0.50 - 1.00 for another trader in the same range. Today, I saw a guy (profitable) pull 2 points out of the range. Another day when Emini ES only had 8 point range...he pulled 4.5 points even though the range was smaller. My point, you can't just look at the range all by itself to determine if its workable or not workable considering everybody is using different trade methods. To further the point...another guy I know had "no trade signals" today while another had 6 trade signals in the price action of Emini ES futures that netted him 5 points and another guy loss 3 points today. Simply, it had nothing to do with the "range" considering everybody trading the Emini ES is trading in the exact same range but getting different trade results (good and bad). It has everything to do with the trade method. P.S. A fib ratio guy said he made a killing today in the Emini ES futures. Yet, last week was his worst week of his trading career even though the range was workable to others.
No the ES is not dead. You make some really good points. We could have a very interesting discussion how multiple trailers are trading the same instrument on the same day but end up with very different results. I guarantee there's days when I lose money and some other trader has made money the same exact day. It does come down to trading method and execution. I think you're right about the ES being difficult for somebody starting out. I have been involved in the markets and trading for a very long time. And to your point about expectations. I would say the average person looking at trading probably has expectations that are way out of line I have seen ads for trading systems that claim crazy results. Like pulling 300 points per month on ES. That system selling in sure plays into the rookies mind set
I can teach you. I charge $100 per hour. My first advice (free) is - trade something other than ES. You can make money with ES, but there are better vehicles.