I hesitate to post. This will terrify you. I stage people I mentor through a sequence of pictorial charts using your theme with two variations: shorter bars and something else to make it dynamic. I will dig up some past stuff. Attached is a grid they use for this.
DJXX is where I did this first (before minis). 8:20 was open so we did every other vertical line as 30 min. 20 and 50 times. For a couple of days we extended the 30 bar range to the right and entered on BO beyond range as following bar formed. Stayed in until a reversal BO occurred and we reversed the trade. This is simple stuff and the pace is slow with 30 min bars. We colored the bars in by hand. Used yellow highliters. My purpose was showing that possibilities existed all the time. I am not into set up BS. They see a lot. (There is a pound thread that is hilarious vis a vis seeing). Formations, pace, risk. Inside bars are crazy because of tension created; and it is opposite of the usual tension. (See spock thread..lol) Next post is a killer.
I attached a word document that show the grid in use for beginning of YM today. I plot the 15 min bars alternatively. I project the pairs ahead. The first bars were expanding so it doesn't work there. Orange bars 2 and 4 give projection for bar 6 and then yellow bars 3 and 5 give projectoin for 7. You see the dashed red lines go one column past (30 min out ahead0 and I project back horizontally to get the green cross hatched possible bar in column 6. Column 7 is same using the green dashed lines. The projection is one that shows that the imagine is strange. It is upside down meaning that the trend will reverse by that bar. I'll post the bars for the day and you can see that bar 6 was short inside bar and bar 7 was first bar of the reversal. This is a crude process but really workable for learning. You sketch projections and follow through with the actuals. I use a 5 min chart so each colum is the H/L for three bars. It is dynamic rather than just projecting horizontally. The effect is that you always have crude projected bar estimates as the market moves to the projections.
just to show how the columns 6 and 7 turned out. Bar 6 was inside bar and bar 7 made the reversal turn. This is without the projections which would clutter it for first viewing. I looked in tutorial files for some oldies but didn't easily find any.
The YM for the day ran three to five trades dependng on stuff. By doing a pair of overlapped sets of bars, you learn to anticipate the possibilities. The reversal stuff is the most imprinting aspect for beginners. we all know reversals are coming and this exercise in anticipation really locks the idea of trend changes into a person's monitoring. At first most people cannot trade a day at all. The attention required is not possible to summon up. By synthesizing long bars from 5 min bars the clustering of mini formations and pace changes comes into view, The projections are being done at the time each shaded area is completed. Volatility, of course, is always showing up as what makes each projection different.the bar 6 and 7 reversal was affected by the large bar 8 projceted possibility. after that the first reversal was seen as weak. Bars 10 , 13, and 14 were persistant for projection the second reversal. Before that you got to see how the low volatility of inside bar 8 caused the projected peaking of bar 12 to be exagerated. But one thing was for sure. Bar 12 was the beak and yiou had at that time of its ending two reversal projections there. A pair of reversals is anabsolute call for a trade. End of long profits and reentry into the short trend. Bar 18's projection for a reversal was in a context of the lateral move before the prokections of 19, 20 and 21 took the trend down. real bar 22 traded inside the projection and 23 was the last projection that cautioned us to look for a BO above the top of bar 22. It didn't happen and projection on bar 24 was an insider relative to 22 then projection 25 really signalled the bottom falling out. The last abr projection was a slice indicating a flat day's end. The projected price happened to be the close as well. This is crude stuff but it does cement trend analysis into a beginner's mind and practice. It effectively handles all trend reversals during the dya about 15 minutes ahead of time, which is helpful as a starting exercise. It look like a mess but it isn't. because a lot of time passes it is a very pleasant exercise that I do after horizotntal projections for BO beyond prior bars. By using two pints on alternate bar4 ends you get to see the dynamic and the volatility. This is not a lazy person thing at all. this arms a person for getting to seamless continuous trading. SCT leads people to not have ceilings about being rich fairly fast. This exercise for eight weeks (I do press this point) leads to about 30% return a month at the beginning level. The grid is in another post as a blank. Do 20 and see where you wind up mentally. This really busts through hair triggerness fast. Slo mo tion.
Hi Bubba, This is a very interesting exercise indeed. Have you ever tried it using three paralel grids, using 5 mins as the base to get the 15 min blocks, but starting each block 5 mins later than the one above (with a 5 min offsetting), so that the three grids overlap? Best Natalie
LOL. No I haven't. What happens to people doing it is that they then get the idea of doing it mathematically. So we then go to the equations of indicators. They are very tuned into why and how the ingredients were chosen by the originators. We get into how to convert statistical stuff into functions that can be handled by calculus concepts and periodic functions. this all is very freeing. On the stock side, I introduced 7 math equations applied to TC2000 Ver 3.0 (not supported since Y2K) and their complement "scoring". Today you can score on Qcharts since they just introduced the Accumulation/Distribution variable. The BOP of Worden Bros was a good precursor. Again. Thank you for introducing the thread. I have a much better understanding of how ET functions at this point. It is so unexpected to see how and why so many people have gotten to where they are. Apparently money and making it has taken on a quasi religious connotation. I did not realize that. I had always thought that people came into the money making opportunity of the markets with a "seeking" bias rather than the intellectual "ceiling" that they are saying they utilize as a principle device in their trading approaches.. Thanks to candletrader for the viewpoints he offered as well. I was intensely curious about so many facets of his comprehensivenss. My narrow experiences (more narrow than I thought) have been in the context of university, APL, government think tanks, war games, and my major interest the modified Delphi process (as it's originator). I was a reader and conference panelist for ISAGA for many years and this apparently has biased me beyond belief. I hope, over time, a lot of significant psychological Q's and topics appear. It can be a profound discovery process to find out all the self imposed barriers that exist for anyone making efforts to progress and refine stuff.
There are several things to consider here at ET. If you set up a file (I use word) and collect posts from an individual for a few weeks, you can get the nuances of what they do. In ET there is a topic or term used to describe what people do. apparently it is very common. to do this thing that they do. It is in a realm called "edge". I have been collecting "edges" lately. I was totally unaware that people did this kind of thing and the reasons they do it. They couple "edges" with draw downs, risk of capital, money management, and Targets and Stops, and many different ratios of the former stuff. I am disparaging any one here in this post. I am just reciting the learning I am going through here. One thread asks: what do I do with my unused capital? This is a consequential issue of the person's "edgemanship" He does one trade a day. I can give you the aspects of each item 4 paragraphs above. Anyway the common result that Et'ers who are edge oriented, have to endure is that they have 1 to 2 points a day profit on a very small percentage of appied capital. In the PT thread is bacame clear to me that people in ET are in one of the two cases studies. the two cases are not cler to people here either. One case is where a person trades and makes decisions against an absolute referent. The other case is using a relatavistic referent. Because I am in Tucson (and this is the place (U of A)where the Smith half of the PT prize worked before he went for a higher pay check after getting the Nobel) I operate in the same vortex (lol). If you read the Stochastics thread you easily recognize we eliminated the PT case A case B comparitive trading distortional comparisons. It is not rocket science from 1957 on for me, to see that all people must combine case A and case B to be operational. The effect is synergistic. A combined with B gives you many times what the consequences of trading with just A or B. Okay. What is an edge and "edgemanship" considering PT? Sorry to say but girlpower hit the "edge on the head. People who edge are screwed. they use either case A or B in an application that deals with a minor phenomena of the whole. I am constructing an EDGE MATRIX in excel for fun. I need it to explain SCT to ET. The whole is the market potential available to everyone. I am rating edges according to the lost oppotunity cost that an edge represents taken alone or in combination with other edges. bagger and electron represent multi edgers. However they demonstrate that they have not synthesized the parameters of 4 or 5 edges into a fluid quasi comprehensive approach. They do "grasshopper" with edges instead. There is also a "furtive function" there too. So any edger sacrifices a major portion of the "opportunity" the market affords us all. Markets chiill and grow cold for edgers. they tell us that. This is simply a statement of how the "whole" changes and "opportunity" for given edges come and go. This is all abundantly proven here. one of the neatest "opportunity killers is "chop" the other kewler one is the overall trend. down trends are killer for edgers as a rule. contrarians are included in thei because their contrarian edge stems from what has crapped out for the edgers wholove long trends. I watch, read, digest and do neatstuff in the context of SCT. Any one here who is an SCT type, knows edgemanship is in the pitts. people declare and delineate them selves in provacative threads. Girlpower is a terrific pro at provacature. Sim/ JR immediately shouted and farted all over the place. He aggressively edged his ass off for us on pages 22 nd 23. The only pagesthat were not painted blue with moderator target words. he stepped out of his tirrades to "edge" for two pages with respect to 4 markets. Why did he so rant against the SCT orientation. siple, he recognized something. Here it is in words for you to look at. See the stock market. Look at FA and TA. skip the corrolary of QA. The money making combo is to choose auniverse with FA and make money with TA. Now I have you in a place to think. I will reveal the commodities equivalent of the FA and TA and the combo of FA and TA. Think PT too. Case A the absolute case is FA. Case B is TA. No one in ET can recognize the implications of PT. To combine economics and psychology into cases and consider absolute referent based dicision making in setting of uncertanty Case A. And torepeat this with a relatavitstic referent (the market) as case B, Lets you see TA at work. FA is absolute TA is relatavistic. I am diluting this with words because it is very deep and pervasive. and almost no one gets it as yet. the next paragraphs are killer for making money. they might allow an edger to break through the myths and garbage. If a person does, then he really pulls it down A guy here named fish sauce is trapped in macro and can't get to this micro solution. Think hard. Dvery part of a commodities market can be divided into an assortment of operating points. Believe it. That is a definition of how people find edges to play. I naturally deal with matrices to classify these operating points. There are a coupld of hot guys here who lookat these operating points as mini continuums. I have named them "zones". These guys know how to scale these zones of opportunity. Some high end "edgers" have demonstated a litt zone scaliing unknowingly. I practice being alert by adding the next step needed to any approach I monitor. This mental discipline I refrain from exhibiting usually unless I see a person who has potential to really go from point A to point N. if you recognize that a zone is there ina sinle item market like futures markets, Then you can see that it has descriptors as well. Seeing that you can make a straight forward conclusion that these descriptors in combination represent an absolute definition of a market operating point. This is the equivalent of an FA on a stock using traditional analysis. the market of ES is filled with absolute FA descriptors of how the market works at eachof these points. We have Case A of pt in hand. What is case B. case B is making money in the referent potential on any day that the market gives us. SCT allows you to play all operating points. "edges' if they show up allow a person to play other wise they have draw downs by playing when they shouldn't and lost opportunities costs if they stay sidelined. risk management and money management. In stocks you apply all your capital into a portfolio. You use FA to get the assortment. You divide the capital over the FA's using risk and money management. Candle has a poll going. He has an edge. everyday in the am he uses it. He does the poll to see what others do with the unused capital that the edge does not allow to be used. What if, the ES had many FA's instead of only one as seen by the vast majority of ETer's. Bingo. some have seen this. One person here will use one percent more than candle for an entry. He also recognizes zones in ES mini market. He see that he can deploy capital in up to 16 zones as a day or a pair of days pass. Each operating and overlapping even zone is an ES FA zone of descriptors. Each is like a separate stock in the portfolio type setting of the stock market. An edge could be an FA description. Thas is a zone that appears when it wants absolutely based in the ES futures market. So 16 applications of 1 percent more capitalthan the max candle uses is a way to operate to start. Lets say that is 48% of total capital if conditions permit. We FA to get the zones. Now lets TA to use the 4 rules. I use the words "4 rules" to describe some of the approaches people have for doing a turn. I do not care what they are exactly. It is a method for maxing out "edge" strategies. All we know is that we have a new world out there. Zones are in the works. And we do them differently than the serial way candle does. We do them according to their appearances during the markets operation. To TA them like we would a stock, we use "4 rules". This is where the remaining capital gets used in the "portfolio of zones" i will just zing this post with the obvious one: scaling. Think "5's Theory" in black jack counting. with a portfolio rolling according to risk and money management, ou scale in and out of each individual zone play in your portfolio. The person who does this here says: "I find it hard to think sometimes, when I have several going; scaling and being both long and short in the same market at the same time" This is a long post so If you do not mind, just be responsive in a pro active manner.
Since today is a free day for me I wanted to sound you out on a few things if you have some time. "Think hard. Dvery part of a commodities market can be divided into an assortment of operating points. Believe it. That is a definition of how people find edges to play. I naturally deal with matrices to classify these operating points." Are your operating points ever-changing or are they static? "the market of ES is filled with absolute FA descriptors of how the market works at eachof these points. We have Case A of pt in hand. What is case B. case B is making money in the referent potential on any day that the market gives us. SCT allows you to play all operating points. "edges' if they show up allow a person to play other wise they have draw downs by playing when they shouldn't and lost opportunities costs if they stay sidelined." I'm guessing that FA stands for 'fundamental analysis' and that might be right or not. Can you spell out what SCT means? Also, I have lost my link to your description of matrices, that is why I am asking these questions. So, this isn't a trap. However, I'd like, if possible, for you to tell me as directly as possible what I'm asking. Thanks in advance. Bruce
some very interesting points in there, but i fear most will not have the patience to read it all. there are some of us here who have known about K&T's work for a long, long time. the base research itself goes back 30 years. and it's not just K&T, there is a wide multidisciplinary field ranging from Penrose to Gould to Pinker to Taleb to K&T to belive it or not the Torah that has enormous implications on how the market can be viewed. there are many ways to describe approaches to the market. for me - i know it may sound a bit zen - approaching the market with a genuine sense of humility is an *extremely* liberating process.