Goals and "taking what the market will give" are in conflict. They do not correlate. Price action, MAE, MFE, Time, Velocity, momentum, volume....these terms all explain the "meter in which we punch". Michael B.
IF, everyone agrees that the longer term avarage on big size is roughly 1 point per day, how much does the 'belief' that the long term avarage is or is going to be about 1 point per day become a mental ceiling, and as a consequence a self fullfilling prophecy? Well....being the savant I am. I could count how many trading days there are and trade daily adding the day's expectation and trade until I reach it......on the losing periods, I would work harder and longer each day LOL I just do not think this way....There is no way to quantify it....Just trade with considering condition. Michael B.
I mean to say: Just trade WITHOUT considering condition Michael B. P.S. We are not talking about risk managment in this thread, so do not mis-understand
One of the pleasant aspects of this thread is that people have been able to think about the immediate environment of making money in markets. Unobtrusively, several of the major questions that define a successful approach have been introduced. The clear contrast between results of "edges" and continuous trading have also been shown and their respective real and user limited ceilings noted. I was delighted that from time to time the market's potential to deliver money was noted. Most recently there is even a rationale developing for examining how anyone can approach learning and designing money making paradigms and constructs. With the advent of this kind of forum (ET), it is amazing to see the spectrum of the kinds of people out there. Being rational nd objective is so much further down the list than I ever thought possible. As people explain to others what their reality is, I am amazed continually. Thank goodness I am only a small part in a small world where what I do has no impact on others these days. Since 1957, I have stuck (lol) with my original stock market approach and in commodities I have never gotten beyond futures indexes because I am chicken. Now with the minis, there is less individual impact. If here, or in another thread, a discussion begins on designing and operating an approach to make money, I already think I'll be a minority viewpoint as usual. Which is great with me, of course. My current and narrowly based viewpoint on designing a system for someone starting out is noted below. By the numbers. 1. A person can connect with the market at any pace of making money he chooses. The key consideration is simply the efficiency of the connection. My yellow brick road excel spread sheet examines that as a tester for any market and any conncetion approach. The potential to make money is determined by the market's efficiency to deliver to you and your efficiency to operate in a timely manner. 2. Knowing that you are learning correctly and not making learning mistakes in either concepts or applications is something that involves self examination. Learning wrongly is a severe handicap. So knowing how to test and verify, frequently, your understandings so that, correctly, they become part of your knowledge base, is extremely important. 3. Working from the whole to the details is the only way to go. The market is a whole complete entity. You join in as part of the ehole. The direct variables are values and people. Money can only be made one way: through change. Personally, I score this. To divide money making into parts, with two variables you have only Four combinations and permutations based upon change. Knowing the market and measuring, is often seen in absolutes. The aspect of absolutes is not important when you know that change is the requirement for making money. To divide themaney making cycle of the market into more parts I intorduce annother variable, A/D, into the mix. In modern times this is showing up in places that monitor the financial industry. I divde the cycle into 8 parts and score them. I now know where the market is; what is next, and how fast the cycle is moving. This is not rocket science. NB: People subgroup into subsets as they decide to split away from the central themes of making money. This either happens by not having any knowledge of a theme or choosing from among competing themes. By now as you are reading this, you have a view on three topics (themes) 4. Investing and trading are growth processes. No one can begin at the top. All persons must make money in the lowest risk smallest capitalization manner at the beginning. Because this is not a self starting possibility, a person must seek help only from an accomplished successful experienced person. If a person does not do this as a first order of business by going outside himself, he is going to be an incomplete half baked person. All major societal operations work in this manner as we all know. 5. there is only one test for the person's design. Using it successfully to make money at a beginner level only. I didn't change from the beginner level in investing in stocks as yet. Here is an application. Use the straight line aproach. For 1. Pick a slow fractal that allows you to keep current. I cheat a little and choose 15 minutes on the YM. I am going for 75,000 a year earnings. Connect to the market by drawing a line through the exact middle of the first 15 min bar. For 2. Focus on market change and how it works because this is where money is made. Sit on the line and enter the market when the price exceeds the first bar. I made the probability sort of even. Set a stop two to four ticks away from the on ther end of the first bar. You are trading continually. For 3. Add the whole market in by monitoring. At the first turn put the number 1 on your chart. At the second turn put the number 2. This will take hours some days; thirty minutes other days. Move your stop to two to four ticks from your point 2 value. Draw a line on the volume tops. Sell when volume peaks or sell when you make 300 dollars. See * below. For 4. Work with another person. Repeat until you make three times inital capital. For 5. When you make 3 times capital. you can do** below. *after you leave the market plot in point 3 at the next turn and draw the first channel of the day by connecting the points Monitor the rest of the day finding out where to put in new channels. There are three to five a day. ** Hold instead of exiting at 30 points. Watch the price in the * channel above, when the price stalls as it tries to go to the left side of the channel, lable it point 1 and reverse with stops as above and go to "For 3." and repeat through the day. Do a MOC at the end of the day. Each two months add a contract with profits. For people who know me, this is the DJ 30 minutes a day trading for 75,000 a year. I just used the idea on the table to start it. If we journal this you will see the 75,000 aspect in a few weeks. as usual I try to keep beginners out of the market during slow high risk times. If you wish use the grid for this. You will find out how bars work and you will begin to see what the next bars are that are coming up. It is good to know how the next bar forms and to be in anticipation. Smart experienced people can see how are the risk management , money management and volatility and market pace ideas are buried in this. Doing it allows a person to make money from the beginning under low risk and after initial successes get to more sophisticated capital appreciation. It also avoids doing an edge set up and draw downs.
this should get you close. for the sake of brevity i left out the volume stuff. using "bar" instead of time to make it independent of fractal-length. // initial setup Bar := 1; MidPoint = AbsoluteValue((PriceOpen(Bar-1) - PriceClose(Bar-1))/2); StopPrice = Minimum(PriceOpen(Bar-1),PriceClose(Bar-1)) - 2; EntryPrice = Maximum(PriceOpen(Bar-1),PriceClose(Bar-1)); // now trade continuously for Bar := 2 to EndOfTime do // open a position if price high enough if (PriceHigh(Bar) >= EntryPrice) and NoCurrentPosition then OpenPosition; // close if stopped out right away if PriceLow(Bar) <= StopPrice then ClosePosition; // move stop up if warranted by broader market considerations // second reversal means we turned from up to down and from down // back to up, ie market found support at a place higher than initial stop // in case it isn't obvious, that is a Very Good Thing if SnPSecondReversal(Bar) then StopPrice := CurrentYMPrice(Bar) - 2; // take profits is offered, 30 YM/dow points is the target if (PriceHigh(Bar) >= EntryPrice + 30) then ClosePosition(Bar); end // finally the point of it all SpendWinningsOnFunStuff(Bar+1);
// initial setup Bar := 1; MidPoint = AbsoluteValue((PriceOpen(Bar-1) - PriceClose(Bar-1))/2); StopPrice = Minimum(PriceOpen(Bar-1),PriceClose(Bar-1)) - 2; EntryPrice = Maximum(PriceOpen(Bar-1),PriceClose(Bar-1)); // now trade continuously After oddtrader revealed this I understood Jack more. for Bar := 2 to EndOfTime do Jack will outlast me // open a position if price high enough Short set up? if (PriceHigh(Bar) >= EntryPrice) and NoCurrentPosition then OpenPosition; // close if stopped out right away if PriceLow(Bar) <= StopPrice then ClosePosition; Tradestation is great isn't it? // move stop up if warranted by broader market considerations // second reversal means we turned from up to down and from down // back to up, ie market found support at a place higher than initial stop / in case it isn't obvious, that is a Very Good Thing But we were short? if SnPSecondReversal(Bar) then StopPrice := CurrentYMPrice(Bar) - 2; // take profits is offered, 30 YM/dow points is the target if (PriceHigh(Bar) >= EntryPrice + 30) then ClosePosition(Bar); end //finally the point of it all SpendWinningsOnFunStuff(Bar+1); You mean the wife can have that H2 Hummer? Michael B.
that's the great thing about the market: if you want to use the exact same entry as a short, it too will work. just flip the sense of the stops, reversals etc. 99.99% of ticks provide a potentially profitable trade in either direction. kinda makes the idea of finding an entry "edge" a little...well....
This is a neat post of yours. We both know most people aren't either going to like the post or think it is worth anything. It's off the table for you and that's expected.
Michael, the more I try to just get the basic concept of what Jack is saying the more sense I make of it. Every once in awhile there will be a sentence that is just way over my head, but I keep reading trying to get the basic meaning of the rest of the paragraph. The more I read, the more I understand. As far as I am concerned I will accept what he says unless I can from my own experience prove other wise. I am really interested about the grid thing, but to be honest I just don't quite understand it. I think I am a more picture oriented person and words sometimes get in the way. If nothing else he along with Girlpower and a few others have really raised my own personal ceiling as far as what is possible. He so matter of factly states how easy it is to double, triple your capital when you are in tune with the market. Almost like it is a birth right. I could think of a lot of worse things to belive in. Just imagine if you had no doubt about the constant endless available market opportunities that are possible every day. I have sure proven to myself that I can consistently be on the wrong side of the market. Why is it so hard to believe we can't consistently be on the right side of the market. Of course if everybody was on the same page then the market would cease to exist, I assume. Anyways keep it coming Jack,always interesting. regards, Bruce Hawkins