Oct. 87', I was 10 but remember it. My Dad had some money saved. All I knew was buy low, sell high. He started trading at that point and remember him telling me he made 10k which was a lot then. He got hooked and got greedy and pissed it away over the years... Every October, people expect a crash. Why do I think it can't happen in this day and age? As awesome as it would be as a trader, I just think with all the daytraders and new technology and global marketplace, a 20% drop won't happen. Investors are more savvy these days... Since logically, it should happen, it won't and I'm usually bearish. Everything looks like it should be set up for disaster. It should of happened Aug 17th but didn't since we have a FED that justs prints money and can prop up the markets whenever it wants. So if we do dip, again there will be permabulls just bitching about more cuts... The only way we crash is a global war or severe event unforseeable. Economics just don't mater anymore IMHO.
Of course. Tech bubble dieing, election year malay, unforeseeable terrorist attack, nervousness of more, anthrax mailings, etc. All great points on buying on fear and uncertainty and geo-political problems driving the markets down. I remember buying and people calling me nuts. Too bad I got out too early on small gains that would of been larger if I just bought and held....Not knowing what would happen the next day after a big gain, I would just book profits as the fear factor was in all of us.
I remember everything from the 2001 terrorist attacks, Yemen bombing (down 300 in a matter of minutes), enron, I EVEN remember some guy who worked at a news place placed false reports on a stock that the CEO had quit and they're going to restate earnings (look up EMULEX scandal). The stock lost like 60% in a matter of minutes. Then halted. They found the guy and tossed him in jail (he was short and covered). I remember Worldcom, Lucent, Rambus, Intel AMD duel....the list goes on. From the start of 99 to now i've seen just about everything. BELIEVE ME. Those were times you'll never forget. Those were the greatest of times guys. This is why we have permabears. A lot of traders who went through the 2000 recession is now permanently scarred. If you started during those times and lived through those times, you'd probably never hold another stock the same again.
Very very good point. Times makes markets and those markets coin the people trading them. Those that can remain unemotional about the markets are best prepared to make money regardless of the "next" market environment.
Don't forget the people who took ass poundings in tech. You know, the EBAY, SUNW, CSCO, AMZN, YHOO, etc buying at the peaks and never letting go of them. Those buy and hold guys never return to the market after blowing out accounts never to touch the market again. Some .com flyers pink sheets... Well at least the AMZN guys got lucky. No splits down to $8 in 2001 I think back to $90 now...lol
In "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" Larry (Jesse Livermore) says that it is only illegal to disseminate false negative information about a company, and that oddly enough it is not illegal to manipulate a stock by disseminating false positive information. I wonder if this is true today?
Here are 2 political scenarios, not necesserily for October, but I am sure they would give a scare for the markets: 1. A military coup against Musharraf in Pakistan, where orthodox Islamist get on power. Oh yes, Pakistan is a nuclear power now. 2. A revolution by the unemployed masses against the princes in the Saudi Kingdom. Let's throw in the acknowledgement of the fact that the country's oil reserves already passed their peak. There are other scenarios way too many to list, but these 2 are actually quite likely....