"Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions of 21th Century for next generation"

Discussion in 'Economics' started by harrytrader, Dec 26, 2003.

  1. Suppose that you write a suite to Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions by Charles MacKay


    what would you say ? Of course for this crazy generation it's too late, so it would be for the next - although at next generation they would find again that "this time it's different" :D
  2. Before know that you risk to be hanged by the idiot crowd :D

    "Marshal Villars, was so vexed to see the
    folly which had smitten his countrymen, that he never could speak with
    temper on the subject. Passing one day through the Place Vendome in
    his carriage, the choleric gentleman was so annoyed at the infatuation
    of the people, that he abruptly ordered his coachman to stop, and,
    putting his head out of the carriage window, harangued them for full
    half an hour on their "disgusting avarice." This was not a very wise
    proceeding on his part. Hisses and shouts of laughter resounded from
    every side, and jokes without number were aimed at him. There being at
    last strong symptoms that something more tangible was flying through
    the air in the direction of his head, Marshal was glad to drive on. He
    never again repeated the experiment."

  3. The crazyness will last perhaps up to 16000 (around 2008/2012) this is what my model says - although I don't trust it for long term as I trust it for intraday :). This will allow people to think that crisis have just became a habit and that they are no signs of worries any more : crazy indeed but the crowd is so idiot, halas there will also modern Irving Fisher who will predict an eternal plateau because this time is different.
    The fact that metals grow means that the conversion has began since a few years already. It needs several years for the initiates to unload all the fake money on the naive majority. And when they won't need any more they will announce that's the game is over and they will short the market and the retirees but also true and honest business will be left with tears the ones for losing their financial compensation, the others for they will be incapable to reimburse the debts which are used today to make their factory work and so their properties will be ceised as farmers were ceased in 1929. Of course unemployment will follow: it is only when the former riches are touched than their employees are touched also.

  4. Conversion in old time was at least funny:

    "Bourdon and La Richardiere, renowned for their
    extensive operations in the funds, quietly and in small quantities at
    a time, converted their notes into specie, and sent it away to foreign
    countries. They also bought as much as they could conveniently carry
    of plate and expensive jewellery, and sent it secretly away to England
    or to Holland. Vermalet, a jobber, who sniffed the coming storm,
    procured gold and silver coin to the amount of nearly a million of
    livres, which he packed in a farmer's cart, and covered over with hay
    and cow-dung. He then disguised himself in the dirty smock-frock, or
    blouse, of a peasant, and drove his precious load in safety into
    Belgium. From thence he soon found means to transport it to Amsterdam."

    Yes they disguised, they won't trumpet to the mass that they are taking the TRUE ASSETS away haha !
  5. "Santa Claus rally and more new highs!
    Dec 24 2003 (from today's Hotline)
    Commerce Department data confirmed the incredible 8.2% 3Q GDP growth, providing the Christmas cheer to move NYSE indices to further highs. Consumer spending and sentiment both were announced and very positive, giving added confirmation to investor optimism. Year end often sees a market rally, as bonuses and dividends are invested, but after the strong ...[Subscribe to read more] "

    "INCREDIBLE" to say the least. It's much easier for Gov today to use "stats" than in the old days (as you will see they didn't need medias to invent virtual reality :D)

    "The value of shares in the Louisiana, or Mississippi stock, had
    fallen very rapidly, and few indeed were found to believe the tales
    that had once been told of the immense wealth of that region. A last
    effort was therefore tried to restore the public confidence in the
    Mississippi project. For this purpose, a general conscription of all
    the poor wretches in Paris was made by order of government. Upwards of
    six thousand of the very refuse of the population were impressed, as
    if in time of war, and were provided with clothes and tools to be
    embarked for New Orleans, to work in the gold mines alleged to abound
    there. They were paraded day after day through the streets with their
    pikes and shovels, and then sent off in small detachments to the
    out-ports to be shipped for America. Two-thirds of them never reached
    their destination, but dispersed themselves over the country, sold
    their tools for what they could get, and returned to their old course
    of life. In less than three weeks afterwards, one-half of them were to
    be found again in Paris. The manoeuvre, however, caused a trifling
    advance in Mississippi stock. Many persons of superabundant
    gullibility believed that operations had begun in earnest in the new
    Golconda, and that gold and silver ingots would again be found in
  6. I think some indeed will have to figure in this Memoirs :D


  7. What is funny is that people are prompt to recognise a ponzi scheme in some virtual stock exchange and not in stock market (more precisely the secondary market http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=26473&perpage=6&pagenumber=8) whereas the mechanism is the same and as old as John Law with the Mississipi scheme and even before him ; only the duration scale changes between the virtual and the real stock market :D


    "On Casino this rare event will happen every 38th day on average, on the MMG game, it will happen every 4/8 or so month and with our financial system it will happen perhaps every 50 or 100 years."

    Initial thread here:
    "The restart game like in real market :) "


    The fantasy stock exchange MMG is a gambling game of a new type.
    In "traditional" games we are all used to alternating winnings and losses. When you play roulette, you may be the winner and loser hundred of times a day!
    With us everything is quite different.

    First of all, over several months all the players do nothing but win. Subsequently the casino suddenly declares restart ( the end of a game ) and takes all the stakes in the kitty.
    After which a new game begins instantly. All the players always win until the next restart ( the beginning of a new game ) is declared… And so on.
    (All in all, the situation is like on a real stock exchange. Share prices are coming up and up… Then there is an unexpected fall, everything being restated.)

    #10     Jan 3, 2004