Melt Up

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Joab, May 16, 2007.

Melt up

  1. I'm in and holding

    16 vote(s)
    20.5%
  2. I'm in and trading the pullbacks long

    19 vote(s)
    24.4%
  3. I'm shorting and getting killed

    21 vote(s)
    26.9%
  4. I'm in cash

    22 vote(s)
    28.2%
  1. Joab

    Joab

    Pretty Incredible,

    I must admit it's getting tiring to watch.

    I'm not losing any money but I'm not making alot either.

    Flat Yield Curve (almost inverted)
    Terrible GDP, Trade, Housing Numbers and weak dollar.

    Congrats to all the bull riders .. I'm sitting in 90% cash.
     
  2. Shout outs to the dipster-risk-free-money-making-crew. Dip + buy + hold till comes back into the green = risk free $$$ + can't lose!!!
     
  3. w3rd that

    just buy the dips

    I told people to remain calm last thursday during the selloff and buy the dip and I got the usual bashers

    where did they go?
     
  4. Joab, your analysis is wrong. The US economy is not driving stocks, see attached.
     
  5. What will be the hype tomorrow, thats what seems to be driving things hype, mergers, buyout, billionaires buying dow stocks, so what next?
     
  6. you wanna make money or try to figure out why it should not be going up when it is?
     
  7. Forbes says dow 18,000 possible in the next 2-3 years
     
  8. at current pace Dow 18 000 is possible by the end of summer
     
  9. Interesting, Just looking at their chart alone says revenue has been decreasing faster than the rate of GDP's descent.
    The visual picture just about contradicts the author's argument IMHO. Revenue is not doing well, as seen in the diagram. One could argue that it has just begun to transition downward along with GDP, just as in 2000. It seems more useful to look at the rate of change of revenue, rather than the absolute level. Was the 15% revenue pk. in 2000 a harbinger of good things to come in the markets and economy?
    No, just the opposite.

    About the only thing I ascertain from the author's revenue chart, is that it shows that this time the markets are ignoring the negative rate of change of revenue as a catalyst to their euphoric ascent. Nor are they correlating to the decrease in the rate of change of GDP.

    However, there did appear to be a delay between the revenue's bottom trough, and the market's bottom (about a year). Perhaps the same delay will occur between the revenue peak in mid 06, and the actual market top -- when it does eventually arrive.

    I'd say they'd be more convincing with a chart of market liquidity pumping (M3) vs. market's ascent. Unfortunately, the cost of printing M3 is too expensive to print these days.

    JMHO.
    -------------------------------------------------
    "Patterns are the fool's gold of the financial markets. They are the inevitable consequence of the human need to find patterns in the patternless." Mandelbrot
     
  10. We have lots of rambling cash in the market and not enough stocks to buy. Market needs some crappy startup stocks to play with. We need an Enron or Bre-X Mineral or Worldcom.
     
    #10     May 16, 2007