There is that almost irresistible urge to second guess the market when you are certain it is too high and bound to reverse any day now. When you conquer that urge and wait until the market tells you what it is likely to do you will become a profitable trader. You are being dismissed because your mistakes are so glaringly obvious to the experienced traders here. Whether you make money shorting GE and Oracle at this point is completely immaterial. You shorted them because you thought they were too high. That's your mistake. On average, you will lose money doing that.
if anyone notices each day the market tends to edge up bit by bit in turtle fashion, say when the fed thinks they have "made" enough, they will dump all then make truckloads to pay off the gov't's debt, my imagined scenario, absolutely no facts to support it, but in this wild days anything could be true
AND ANOTHER MELT UP BEGINS, YOU CAN just feel people chasing the markets now, something thats going to get interesting in weeks to come. I have chased markets before like I did in mid 2007 only to get stopped out plenty of times, not worth it. Many people chasing this performance will feel it as soon as we get one of those large 3%+ down weeks.
I can feel the people running into the market now are the ones on the sidelines who have been out of the market for a year+ now finally thinking this is it, so you figure they miss out on 60%+ run in 6 months only to jump in and hopefully get something around 5% on their investment, once it turns south all those new investors at 9000+ start to panic and sell.
How far up to we need to go in order to get the 'small' investor, who has lost a good chunk of value on their house (bubble popped), and in tech stocks -- to go, "OMG, I need to buy the stock market"? I see absolutely no evidence whatsoever that morons have been induced, as of yet, to invest.
Thats what happened in 2007 with the overall markets and again in 2008 with commodities and emerging markets, it gets too overcrowded with people only thinking that buying stocks is better than any investment they can make. Everyone feels better when the stock market goes higher, thinking about the trillions of dollars in gains made over the last 6 months alone in the market after having this 55%+ run. There isnt any reason to buy, but because of all these theories they put together make you think anytime is a great time to invest, the market can go up another 100% from here and there will still be talking heads on cnbc yelling that there is more upside potential. Just to let everyone know, the moves occurring now around the world are setting it up for yet another asset bubble thanks to historical low interest rates and printed monopoly money. Show me the economy can run on its own and I will shut my mouth, to much involvement in the markets is no good. Show me a true catalyst that will bring growth to our economy, I don't think laying off workers, outsourcing, historical low rates, free money, high leverage, and every other trick in the book is the way to grow an economy, it seem every time growth does come along it gets taken advantage of, just like the dot com boom and housing boom, everything was great when it was beginning but eventually greed steps in and takes over creating massive wealth and of course after that, wealth destruction.
Why shouldn't the market price all your pessimism in and give a reasonable risk adjusted return on investment going forward? The market balances different asset classes to give reasonable returns with adjustments for risk. With the Dow up 11.9% this year, is that excessive given the risk?
They do not have much of anything left after paying taxes and bills. Do not count on the retail crowd popping toes back in for another 5-10 years...probably right about the time we peak again.
people who've been short all the time since june believe that the USD is not gonna deflate in value. because if index goes up, USD goes down in value but if index goes down. USD becomes more valuable. Sometimes i see people saying the indexes are gonna crash and so will the USD because the US has too much debt. Those aren't traders, those are gamblers who don't even realize crap they are syaing