Meet the COVID Delta variant

Discussion in 'Politics' started by gwb-trading, Jun 23, 2021.

  1. gaussian

    gaussian

    It wouldn't exactly be out of character. ADE is most common in positive sense RNA viruses of which COVID is.

    discussion that ADE is under researched in COVID vaccines and is desperately needed.

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32659783/

    Speculative paper that ADE exists in COVID

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32920233/

    New COVID strains could cause ADE

    https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32506725/


    Yet again you post no evidence but make implications the GP is stupid. The research is brand new. There's even speculation COVID itself is gaining ADE from prior infection from other coronaviridae. For all of the "trust the science" you've given off so far you've spent shockingly little time actually reading even the abstracts of pubmed papers.

    While ADE will most likely be caused by subsequent COVID infections, there's no reason to rule out ADE occurring in the vaccinated after subsequent challenge. Especially with these allegedly extra dangerous new variants.
     
    #111     Jun 25, 2021
    LacesOut and Tsing Tao like this.
  2. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    ADE is just the latest nonsense being put forward by anti-vaxxers on why COVID vaccines are bad. They keep throwing fabricated nonsense at the wall hoping something will stick -- but none of it will.

    Why ADE Hasn't Been a Problem With COVID Vaccines
    — Even with new variants, it's unlikely antibody-dependent enhancement will be an issue
    https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91648
     
    #112     Jun 25, 2021
  3. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    6 warning signs that the Delta variant is coming for unvaccinated Americans
    https://news.yahoo.com/6-warning-si...ing-for-unvaccinated-americans-090025468.html

    How many unvaccinated Americans are willing to die easily preventable deaths from COVID-19 each day?

    As the hyper-contagious and potentially more severe Delta variant becomes dominant here in the coming weeks, the 140 million eligible U.S. residents who haven’t been fully vaccinated yet might want to start asking themselves that question.

    “COVID-19 vaccines are available for everyone ages 12 and up,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Rochelle Walensky said Tuesday at a White House briefing. “They are nearly 100 percent effective against severe disease and death — meaning nearly every death due to COVID-19 is particularly tragic, because nearly every death, especially among adults … is at this point entirely preventable.”

    This, of course, wasn’t always the case. During the first year or so of the pandemic, more than 500,000 unvaccinated Americans died of COVID-19. None of them had the option of reducing their risk of dying of the disease to essentially zero by receiving a free shot that had already been safely administered to 178 million of their friends and neighbors.

    But now unvaccinated Americans do have that option. By refusing it, they are opening the door to Delta.

    And make no mistake: Delta is coming.

    To be sure, the dangerous variant behind India’s horrific spring surge won’t cause nearly as much sickness, hospitalization and death here as it caused there, for the simple reason that by getting a harmless jab (or two), millions of vaccinated Americans have already decided to(a) protect themselves and (b) block the virus from spreading to their unvaccinated peers. The unvaccinated will continue to benefit from others’ immunity.

    But Delta will trigger some sickness, hospitalization and death in the U.S. — nearly all of it among unvaccinated Americans, and all of it worse than any potential vaccine side effect.

    Here are six warning signs that Delta is heading our way:

    1. The U.K. has more immunity than the U.S. Cases and hospitalizations are increasing there anyway.

    Think America’s relatively robust vaccination rate will keep Delta from doing any real damage in the U.S., especially after 10 percent of Americans have already tested positive for the virus and presumably have some “natural immunity” of their own?

    Think again. For a reality check, pay attention to what’s happening right now in the United Kingdom, where the Delta variant is already dominant.

    There a greater share of adults (60 percent) are fully vaccinated than in the U.S. (56 percent); a much greater share (83 percent vs. 66 percent) have received at least one vaccine dose. Meanwhile, about 7 percent of the U.K. population has tested positive over the course of the pandemic, one of the higher rates in the world.

    Yet despite the U.K.’s wall of immunity, its daily COVID case count has increased 86 percent over the past two weeks. (Wednesday’s jump was the largest since February.) Daily deaths have risen 26 percent over the same period (though the overall death rate has remained low). Daily hospitalizations are up 25 percent over the last week alone.

    Delta is to blame.

    2. Once Delta lands somewhere — even somewhere with lots of immunity — it spreads fast.

    Earlier this year, scientists estimated that the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in England — now known as Alpha — could be 60 percent more transmissible than the original version of SARS-CoV-2. Now experts believe Delta is 60 percent more transmissible than Alpha, making it far more contagious than the virus that infected hundreds of millions worldwide last year.

    As a result, Delta began spreading rapidly as soon as it arrived in the U.K., eventually doubling as a proportion of all infections every 11 days. Today it accounts for 99 percent of U.K. COVID cases.

    It’s unclear if Delta is more lethal than other iterations of the virus, but early evidence from the U.K. suggests that, compared with Alpha, it doubles an individual’s risk of being hospitalized. And while all two-dose COVID vaccines are effective against Delta when fully administered, the variant’s immune escape properties cut vaccine protection to just 33 percent in the period between the first dose and the second, according to a recent study from Public Health England.

    All of which means that Delta poses a greater risk to unvaccinated (and partially vaccinated) Americans than any previous form of the virus.

    And the risk is rising.

    Today Delta accounts for about 20 percent of all new COVID cases in the U.S., but that number is already doubling every two weeks.

    “In several weeks to a month or so, [Delta]’s going to be quite dominant [in the U.S.],” White House chief medical adviser Dr. Anthony Fauci explained Wednesday. “That’s the sobering news.”

    3. To stay ahead of Delta, America’s vaccination rate should be increasing. It’s flatlining instead.

    At its April peak, the U.S. was injecting an average of 2 million Americans with their first COVID vaccine dose every single day. As recently as one month ago, that number was hovering around 900,000. Today it has fallen below 200,000. On June 22, fewer than 30,000 first doses were reported to the CDC, the lowest single-day tally since last Christmas.

    The reason? Americans are among the most vaccine-hesitant people in the developed world. According to recent polling by Morning Consult, the U.S. has a higher rate of vaccine opposition than any major country except Russia; a full 30 percent of U.S. adults say they are either unwilling to get vaccinated (19 percent) or uncertain (11).

    In contrast, just 16 percent of Canadian adults and just 14 percent of U.K. adults say the same.

    The U.S., in other words, has basically run out of people to vaccinate. Since the start of June, Canada— which struggled to inoculate its population over the first few months of the year due to supply shortages — has fully vaccinated an additional 15 percent of its population; the U.K. has added 8 percent to its total. In the U.S., however, the ranks of the fully vaccinated have ticked up only 4 percent this month.

    4. That leaves more than 100 million Americans largely defenseless against Delta — and they’re concentrated in places where the virus can still spread easily.

    Forty-five percent of Americans have been fully vaccinated. Fifty-five percent have not.

    Fifty-six percent of U.S. adults have been fully vaccinated. Forty-four percent have not.

    Seventy-seven percent of U.S. seniors have been fully vaccinated. Twenty-three percent have not.

    No matter how you slice it, a huge share of the U.S. population — from seniors (the most likely to die of COVID) to younger adults (the most likely to spread it) — remain largely defenseless against Delta. That’s true even if you consider natural immunity, which isn’t as widespread as some might think — and doesn’t ensure protection against new variants either.

    The gaps in America’s immunity would be one thing if the unvaccinated were evenly dispersed among the vaccinated. Someone who has refused the jab but lives in a city like San Francisco, where 72 percent of adults have already been inoculated, faces a fairly low risk of contracting the virus through community spread.

    The problem, however, is that vaccination rates in the U.S. tend to break down along political lines — and people with different political views tend to live in different places.

    According to the most recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, more than three-quarters of Democrats (76 percent) say they’ve already gotten a shot, while less than half of Republicans (49 percent) say the same. A full 28 percent of Republicans say they will “never” get vaccinated.

    As a result, counties that voted for Donald Trump in 2020 now tend to have lower vaccination rates than counties that voted for Joe Biden. Overall, 25 states have fully vaccinated less than 45 percent of their population — the national average — and 25 states have fully vaccinated more than 45 percent of their population. Trump won 22 of the 25 low-vax states; Biden won 22 of the 25 high-vax states.

    With that in mind, it should come as no surprise the vast majority of the 100 U.S. counties with today’s highest per capita case counts are in conservative areas. Nor should it shock anyone that, according to nationwide sampling conducted by the genomics company Helix, Delta is already spreading faster in U.S. counties where less than 30 percent of residents have been fully vaccinated than in counties with vaccination rates above that threshold.

    5. Delta will hospitalize and kill unvaccinated Americans, especially in undervaccinated communities. Just look at Missouri.

    There is one state right now that is leading the country in both new COVID cases per capita (at nearly quadruple the national average) and new hospitalizations per capita (at nearly triple the national average): Missouri.

    In fact, nearly two-thirds of 30 U.S. counties with the highest current rates of hospitalization are in the Show Me State.

    Not coincidentally, Delta now accounts for nearly 30 percent of Missouri’s new COVID cases, according to the CDC.

    No other state comes close.

    Across Missouri, hospitalizations are up 15 percent over the past two weeks. But in counties with lower rates of full vaccination — a quarter or less of the population — hospitalizations have tended to increase by something like 50 or 60 percent over the same period.

    In Joplin, Mo., where the hospitalization rate is now higher than anywhere else in America, Freeman Health System announced Wednesday that it was reopening the COVID ward it had previously closed in March. Elsewhere, CoxHealth, a six-hospital system in southwestern Missouri, said last week that it may begin diverting some COVID patients to other facilities throughout the state due to surging admissions “associated with the Delta variant” — a “five-fold increase from less than a month ago.”

    Meanwhile, local providers say pretty much every new patient has one thing in common: They’re unvaccinated.

    “We’ve been seeing much younger patients needing management within the hospital — some as young as their late teens, in their 20s, in their 30s and, unfortunately, all of [them] unvaccinated and very sick,” Ivy Garcia, a critical care nurse at CoxHealth in Springfield, Mo., recently told ABC News.

    “With the new variant in our area, these patients are getting sicker quicker,” added Leanne Handle, an assistant nurse manager of a medical surgical COVID-19 unit at the same hospital. “They are progressing through this spectrum very, very quickly. … [They’re patients] who don’t think that they’re going to get sick from it, who aren’t mentally prepared to make life-and-death decisions [like] do they want to be intubated, do you want CPR if your heart should stop.”

    Missouri has had the misfortune of getting hit hard by Delta first. But it’s not an outlier. A dozen states — Mississippi (29 percent), Alabama (32 percent), Arkansas (33 percent), Wyoming (34 percent), Louisiana (34 percent), Tennessee (35 percent), Idaho (35 percent), Georgia (35 percent), Utah (36 percent), West Virginia (37 percent), South Carolina (37 percent) and Oklahoma (37 percent) — actually have lower full-vaccination rates than Missouri (38 percent), and in most of those states, more than 20 percent of seniors still haven’t received one COVID shot, let alone two.

    Which suggests they’re probably just as vulnerable to Delta as Missouri — if not more so.

    6. Meanwhile, vaccination is already saving Americans from Delta.

    As vaccination curbs the overall spread of the virus, the chances that any one unvaccinated American will be hospitalized or die from COVID — or pass it on to a friend, family member, co-worker or neighbor who gets hospitalized or dies — are lower than they were at the peak of the pandemic.

    But they’re still much higher than the chances for any one vaccinated American, because those chances are effectively zero.

    Consider what happened this month at the Manatee County Administration Building in Florida. In May, the Board of County Commissioners repealed coronavirus safety requirements, recommending that people visiting the County Administration Building instead “use their best judgment” to protect themselves.

    Then, over a two-week period in June, the virus tore through the building’s IT department.

    Six people tested positive. Several were hospitalized. Two died — and both of them were unvaccinated.

    So were the other staffers who got infected or hospitalized.

    There was one exposed employee who was vaccinated, however — and he did not get COVID, according to Manatee County Administrator Scott Hopes, who is also an epidemiologist.

    “This particular outbreak demonstrates the effectiveness, I believe, of the vaccine,” Hopes told reporters Monday, adding that he suspects Delta was responsible for the virus’s rapid (and ultimately deadly) spread. “We are dealing with a variant unlike what we had last year.”

    According to Hopes, that makes vaccination more important than ever. “When you have that many cases, and you have a 40 percent fatality rate, you have to worry,” he continued in an interview with Florida Politics. “I would prefer not to have any more employee funerals.”

    In the months ahead, Delta will spread across a fully reopened, largely maskless America, just as it likely spread through the Manatee County Administration Building. The vast majority of unvaccinated Americans unlucky enough to encounter it will survive. But some who do survive will pass the variant on, and too many will end up losing their lives because they wagered that the vaccine posed a bigger risk than the virus — even though all the available science says the opposite (and it isn’t even close).

    “We are going to miss Mary so much,” a work contact wrote Wednesday on the obituary page of one of the Manatee County staffers who died. “Her smile was radiant.”

    “Get vaccinated,” the well-wisher added. “It's that simple.”
     
    #113     Jun 25, 2021
  4. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Uh huh,. Sure.

    Remember these:

    UK Variant Fear
    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/covid-19.341849/page-126#post-5304402
    South African Variant Fear
    And now Delta Variant Fear. How long has the variant fear been pushed by you? Lets check?

    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/search/12667018/?page=12&q=variant&o=date&c[node]=27&c[user][0]=9113

    July of last year.
     
    #114     Jun 25, 2021
  5. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Nearly all US COVID deaths now among unvaccinated people
    https://nypost.com/2021/06/24/nearly-all-us-covid-deaths-now-among-unvaccinated-people/
     
    #115     Jun 25, 2021
  6. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    Why One Particular Strain of COVID-19 Could Represent Its 'Peak Fitness'
    https://www.sciencealert.com/experts-consider-whether-the-delta-strain-is-covid-at-peak-fitness

    No coronavirus variant spotted so far is more concerning than Delta, the strain first identified in India in February. World Health Organization officials on Monday said Delta is the "fittest" variant to date, since it spreads even more easily than other variants and may lead to more severe cases among unvaccinated people.

    "Delta is a superspreader variant, the worst version of the virus we've seen," Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, tweeted last week.

    But it's possible that Delta is the worst the coronavirus is going to throw at us – that the virus, in other words, has reached what epidemiologists call "peak fitness."

    Topol and Italian virologist Roberto Burioni explore that scenario in a letter published in the journal Nature on Monday.

    The virus, they wrote, is likely to hit a point after which it no longer mutates to become more infectious. In that case, they said, "a 'final' variant will prevail and become the dominant strain, experiencing only occasional, minimal variations."

    It's too soon to know whether that's happened, since Delta isn't yet dominant worldwide. But it likely will be soon – Delta has been detected in more than 80 countries so far and is already dominant in India and the UK.

    "Delta is absolutely going up the fitness peak – whether it's at the top, I think that's very hard to say until we just don't see any further change," Andrew Read, who studies the evolution of infectious diseases at Pennsylvania State University, told Insider.

    "If Delta takes over the world and nothing changes," he added, "then we'll know in a while – a year or two – that it is the most fit."

    The fittest variants are the best at spreading
    The coronavirus is constantly mutating in relatively harmless ways, but every once in a while, a mutation turns the virus into a more menacing threat.

    A new variant develops that can evade antibodies generated in response to a vaccine or prior infection, results in more serious illness, or spreads more easily.

    Emerging research indicates that Delta checks at least two of those boxes.

    Public Health England found that Delta is associated with a 60 percent increased risk of household coronavirus transmission compared to Alpha, the variant discovered in the UK. Alpha is already around 50 percent more transmissible than the original strain, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    Researchers in Scotland also found that getting infected with Delta doubles the risk of hospital admission relative to Alpha. (Previous studies have suggested that Alpha may be 30 to 70 percent deadlier than the original strain.)

    What's more, emerging research indicates that a single vaccine dose doesn't hold up as well against Delta as it does against other coronavirus strains. Recent Public Health England analyses found that two doses of Pfizer's vaccine were 88 percent effective at preventing symptomatic COVID-19 from Delta, while a single shot was just 33 percent effective.

    That's compared to 95 percent efficacy against the original strain, with 52 percent after one shot.

    The best way for the coronavirus to achieve peak fitness, Topol and Burioni wrote in their letter, is to become more contagious. If a variant is already spreading quickly, there's no urgent need for it to evade the body's immune response; it can simply jump to another person.

    "Increasing rate of transmission from person to person is what we're looking for," Read said.

    So far, Delta is by far the most transmissible variant. The US's Delta cases appear to have tripled in just 11 days, from 10 percent of all cases sequenced in early June to 31 percent last week, according to a recent estimate from the Financial Times.

    At that rate, experts predict Delta will become the nation's dominant strain in weeks.

    That doesn't necessarily mean the coronavirus has reached maximum transmission, though.

    Read said Delta could still acquire combinations of mutations that make it even better at spreading (what he called a "Delta-plus" variant).

    It's also possible that two separate variants – Delta and Alpha, for instance – could combine mutations to produce an even more infectious strain. Under a third scenario, Read said, an entirely new lineage might replace Delta as the dominant variant.

    "The biggest concern at the moment is just the sheer number of people that have the virus and therefore the sheer number of variants that are being generated," Read said.

    "Some of those might be the jackpot which are even fitter than Delta."

    Still, vaccines will likely provide at least some protection against whatever strain represents the coronavirus' peak fitness.

    "No human vaccine has ever been undermined by a variant to the point where the vaccine was completely useless," Read said.
     
    #116     Jun 25, 2021
  7. userque

    userque

    #117     Jun 25, 2021
  8. UsualName

    UsualName

    Oh Lordy, ADE is not “here” for the vaccinated. It is a rare phenomenon that would have been picked up in the earliest stages of the trials, as you will find out if you care to look into it.

    Could it happen as the virus evolves, sure. Lots of things could happen. My wife knew a guy who got struck by lightning through a sun window while sitting in his living room. So, yes, anything could happen. You could also get ADE from a Covid infection and your own natural immunity. We know people can get reinfected after initial infection!

    What I will say is that ADE is more likely to show up in “dead virus” vaccines that don’t produce enough of an immune response. See the sino versions and Sputnik.

    Also, the vast majority of people dying and being hospitalized from Covid are the unvaccinated so that right there tells you the vaccine is working.
     
    #118     Jun 25, 2021
  9. Tony Stark

    Tony Stark

    A friend of mines girlfriend works as a pharmacy tech. Shes says a lot of people are turning down getting vaccinated because they cant get the vaccine they want.She says a lot of people call for appointments or walk in and want Moderna or Pfizer.Shes says they have had 1 shipment of Moderna since February that was quickly used and they get around 80% JNJ and 20% Pfizer.Shes say alot of people who come in to get the vaccine walk away and say they will try somewhere else or call back later if The Moderna or Pfizer vaccines aren't available.
     
    #119     Jun 25, 2021
  10. I want the one that doesn't kill you and doesn't alter your DNA. I'm guessing that's the one they want too. Does she know where to find it??
     
    #120     Jun 25, 2021