Medium Term Trading of SP500 with Cycle Analysis

Here is my cycle analysis for the next two months. Looking for SP500 to drop until sometime in October or November. I am short at 2926. A little under water right now. Going to hold this trade for 6 to 12 weeks.

 

Daily chart with traditional pivot points. Price bouncing off S1 resistance.

 

IMV... any kind of "cycle" analysis is among the least reliable.

Years ago when Steve Shellins ran the MoniResearch Newsletter, he commented... "those who claim cycle analysis as their primary methodology are the worst performers". (His service tracked ~225 money managers.) Which performers were the best? Those who claimed "Relative Strength and Sector Rotation" to be their methodology.

I'm to the point that as soon as somebody mentions "cycles", I tune out.... 'cause I know they are fishin' in a dry hole.

 

Then why the reply here if you "tune out"? Never mind. I put you on ignore. Feel free to put me on ignore and you can tune out automatically.

 

Didn't say I was tuning you out... just your comments on cycles.

 

Huh?

 

I've looked at your diagram 3-4 times and cannot for the life of me see how drawing red lines on top 4 different graphs with no Y-axis tells you anything.

What you've done here seems like absolute magic to me. If you're trying to determine seasonality there are far better, more mathematically sufficient way of doing so.

 

You will see...

 

Thank you Elite Trader for your ignore function!

 

Just to add, my cycles have to do with time only and not price levels.