Sweden is testing for COVID19 antibodies, like everyone else. That's how they arrived at their numbers of 20% immunity for Stokholm area. Thanks
I've posted it many times. If you had bothered to read my replies, it was in the reply I wrote you. Evidently, you're not reading my replies. Just spouting hot air. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html
Oh man. You cannot calculate something that has an unknowable term in it. Deaths attributable to Covid/Total Number of Covid infections gives mortality. Total Number of Infections isn't presently known. A large double blind study with good quality of randomness of samples could give a sound basis to estimate regional numbers of infections based on the presence of antibodies but short of that the picture is seriously muddled. The Stanford study didn't follow best statistical practices so its result isn't well accepted. You need size and you need good randomness. If you have those you can extrapolate a bit with confidence. Literally mathematical confidence intervals that propagate upward with the extrapolation in error bands.
So this article states the following... that New York City's death level is 6 times the normal level. It makes the case that deaths due to COVID-19 is massively undercounted. Let's read the text... N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html More than 27,000 New Yorkers have died since the start of the novel coronavirus outbreak in March — 20,900 more than would be expected over this period and thousands more than have been captured by official coronavirus death statistics. As of Sunday, the city had attributed 16,673 deaths to coronavirus, either because people had tested positive for the virus, or because the circumstances of their death meant that city health officials believed the virus to be the most likely cause of death. But there remains a large gap between this number and the total deaths above typical levels in the last six and a half weeks: more than 4,200 people whose deaths are not captured by the official coronavirus toll. A review of mortality data in 12 countries showed that official death tallies have undercounted coronavirus deaths by tens of thousands. The recent death count reached six times the normal number of deaths for the city at this time of year, a surge in deaths much larger than what could be attributed to normal seasonal variations from influenza, heart disease or other more common causes. The city’s largest mass casualty event in recent memory, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, claimed only a fraction as many lives. It is too soon to know the precise causes of death for New Yorkers in this period. Although many of the deaths not currently attributed to coronavirus may represent an undercount of the outbreak’s direct toll, the broader effects of the pandemic might have also increased deaths indirectly. Throughout the city, emergency rooms have been overcrowded, ambulance response has been slowed, and many residents might have been reluctant to seek medical care because of fears of contracting the virus. Hospitals around the country have reported reductions in admission for heart attacks, one sign that some people may be dying at home from ailments they would survive during more normal times. The measurements in our chart rely on a New York Times analysis of mortality data from the city’s Department of Health and from the National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. They capture the number of New York City residents who have died each week since January 2017. The total number of deaths for the period from March 11 through April 25 comes from the city health department. The way in which these deaths are distributed by week is an approximation based on how mortality data has lagged in the past. Even with these high totals, the recent numbers in our charts are most likely an undercount of all deaths in the city. In normal times, death certificates take time to be processed and collected, and complete death tallies can take weeks to become final. But even if the current count is perfect, roughly 27,600 New Yorkers have died of all causes since the beginning of the epidemic. That’s about 20,900 more than is typical.
ANnnnnnd we have that with NYC numbers.... Each day the death rate is slowing, while the antibody tested rate is growing.... All the NYC antibody tests are in line with each other.... And the calculated death rates are in line with all other States and Countries. There will never be a double-blind placebo-controlled, "gold standard" experiment to determine total infection and death rates. Nobody performs such tests on human beings. SO to suggest that is ignorant. FURTHER TO THAT, where is the massive spike in deaths if everything is so "unknowable". The death totals are absolute. They are fixed. And they are overstated, to add to that. So we know what the death totals are. Extrapolating based on antibody sampling is what NYC is doing, what NY State is doing. In fact, every State is extrapolating antibody samples. So is every country on earth. Now why is that method wrong ? Because the entire world is using antibody sampling extrapolation to project and calculate death rates ? How are you right and everyone else is wrong?
It right there in the article. If people aren't going in for the thousands of other health conditions, obviously there will be an increase in death numbers. Article is basically fluff.
NYT said there's a lag-rate in the total number of deaths published due to bureaucratic reasons. Paperwork etc. That's it. It doesn't change a thing. I used their high number for calculating death rates = 21,000 deaths. That figure is way overstated due to heart attack, cancer, and stroke patients avoiding the hospital. Which again, for the 10th time, you fail to acknowledge. Using ur example, lets say the lag is 30,000 deaths (total). 30,000 deaths / 2.175 million with antibodies = 1.3% death rate. It doesn't change much. Further, what you fail to consider (again), is there's a lag-rate as well for the antibody tests to be published. Again, for the same reason ....bureaucratic. Takes awhile to perform the sample, compile and publish the results. So the antibody test are lagged as well. FURTHER, what you fail to consider, and which Ive said many times, which evidently you dont understand, the antibody test rate (denominator) is growing MUCH FASTER then the numerator. That's what you don't get. The denominator is growing MUCH FASTER then the numerator. Exposed persons are recovering MUCH FASTER then people are dying. This means the death rate expressed as a percentage, declines over time. NYC antibody presence jumped up 4% points in 5 days x 8.7 million population = that's 350,000 PERSONS developed antibodies to COVID19 in 5 DAYS. While in that same 5 day span, what? 500 people died in New York?
Yes, that's exactly what the NYT article says. Deaths are over reported in areas because heart attack, stroke, and late stage cancer patients are not receiving urgent care treatment. That's whats happening all across teh world. Very sick people are avoiding hospitals by choice, and in many cases, by FORCE. As hospitals are simply closed to everyone BUT COVID19. Do you not acknowledge that point? Or are you being purposefully obtuse?
Let's provide this again so you can be educated and fix your math... How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct