Just returned from vacation a few days ago. It's so hard to get going again when you've been frolicking on the beach for the past week. Anyway, here's the updated forecast. It's the same as the last, but with the updated LCQ09 prices through today's (08/18/2009) close. It's all working out as planned.
don't get stuck delivering/taking delivery! haha! you didn't roll out to Dec yet? btw...the beach must be nice...especially for a panhandle kid! haha!
No, not trading Augs, just using that contract in the side-by-side comparison with the forecast. I'm in the Octs. I don't know where I'd put a load of cattle, as I live in downtown Dallas. The thought of it makes me laugh. And yes, the beach was great. I was in SanDestin, FL. It beats the hell out of Lake Merideth anyday! The day after my flight got back from the beach, I drove up to Amarillo to see a buddy of mine get married. We hit the Polk St. festival after that and got rowdy. That was a nice ending for my summer.
The forecast is holding up well, I'm somewhat pleased. Here is another little something that I've derived from my forecast math, it's significant days where there are strong odds of a higher close or lower close than the previous day. (Close to Close) Real, recent examples of my past "Significant Days" (Still based on LCQ09, but appicable to most contracts): 7/21/2009 - Strong Odds for a Lower Close(correct) 7/27/2009 - Strong Odds for a Higher Close(correct) 7/28/2009 - Strong Odds for a Higher Close(correct) 8/13/2009 - " " " Lower Close (correct) 8/18/2009 - " " " Higher Close (correct) I've got another set of stats that show days of lesser significance, but are still mostly winners. I call these days "X" days for simplicity's sake. Here are some real, recent examples of "X" days: 7/31 - Strong Odds for a Higher Close(correct) 8/4 - " " " Lower Close (correct) 8/11 - " " " Higher Close (correct) 8/13 - " " " Lower Close (correct) 8/14 - " " " Higher Close (correct) 8/17 - " " " Lower Close (correct) I'll say that, without running the true stats on how many of these days are actually correct, I can estimate that the winning % for these significant days are at least 80%, no lie. Now that we got that out of the way, here are the Significant, and X days for the rest of the month including 9/1 and 9/4: 8/21 (Significant day) High odds of a Lower Close 8/26 (Significant day) High odds of a Higher Close 8/31 (Significant day) High odds of a Lower Close 9/1 (Significant day) " " " Lower Close 9/4 (X day) " " " Higher Close LCQ09 will be used for the above, August dates, while the two September dates will be in the V contract for obvious reasons. Once again, I like to put this stuff out there for people to see and criticize (if it's wrong), that really helps me out because it keeps me honest. Let's watch and see what happens -C.
Okay, today (8/21) saw lower closes in almost all of the LC futures contracts, except for LCQ09, which posted a rally in the last 3 minutes of the session to take it to +.20 on the day. Interpret that how you like, but as stated above, I'm doing this for accountability reasons, and I did state that the forecast is for the LCQ09 futures, so I'll call it as a miss. There aren't alot of people still trading the LCQ09 contract, and the lower finishes in the deferred contracts makes this a bittersweet loss (on the call) for me, but a loss nonetheless. I am trading in the Oct contract, and was positioned correctly for the negative action. I'll say that these "significant" and "x" days will now need to be monitored in the V-month contract, as the volume is so thin in the Q-month that it's starting to trade like a penny stock. I hope you all have a good weekend, and here's and updated version of the forecast for LC: