Very true. Why bother to measure a trend ? Whatever the method you will use, you will measure something of the past and the risk the trend is about to end is large.
Enter on a strong trend, exit on a weak trend. How did you think trend trading worked? So you never take a trade unless you're guaranteed a win? Okey dokey. The risk of the trend ending is large only if you're late measuring the trend. This is why my own research has focused on optimal noise reduction with minimal lag. Not as "impossible" as it sounds if decent adaptive smoothers are utilized.
Noise reduction with minimal lag sounds great , I want to learn more about it As far as I'm concern I think you will always be late measuring a trend. If you're able to measure it, it means it already has happened. Consider the market as an alternance of consolidations and trends: you would prefer knowing / measuring when you have a consolidation pattern and prepare for the next trend rather than measuring the current trend.
Google is your friend Then what good would noise reduction with minimal lag do for you? Why doesn't your same logic apply to consolidations as it does to trends? "By the time you can measure it, it's already over and you're too late."
Or: reverse when week trend, and hold when strong trend. Noise is when you don't know what is happening. It's yours. So, smoothers are crutches that prevent you from getting better.
If you watch carefully, consolidation is a weak trend. Then when a strong trend weakens, it signals its end.
You're trying to pick tops and bottoms. Good luck with that. I know exactly what's happening: the current trend has ended and the next one is unpredictable, which is why I'd never try to pick a top or a bottom. No, it's the market's. I'm not big enough to create any noise in the market.