Am looking for reversion to some kind of mean, but then momentum for entry. 99% of time is countertrend whether scalping or very long term commodities. Very long term looking for 9 year cycle to kick in and nail 75% of that swing. Always have add-ons based on reversion to mean but has to be deep enough where most think trend has changed.
In the following link to my blog, I explained that both momentum and mean reversion have to be evaluated together while taking a trade. I don't look at them as mutually exclusive strategies. https://compellingstocks.com/2024/10/29/my-thoughts-on-technical-analysis-5/
Momentum makes money fast and it's exciting. Mean reversion will always happen. Otherwise, the price will not be sustainable.
It’s tough to have both mindset but It’s great to be able to handle them both. I had two periods. One Mean Reversion period and I got rekt on strong moves. One Momentum period and I got rekt on weak moves. Now … One can stay on the sidelines and wait for his market. One can manage the losses better than me. But by being able to think both ways, one can recognize more easily which is which and capitalize on it. Like all bias in the market … they ain’t rational unless they are statistically driven.