Good point but it does not mean that it will start to outperform from Jan 1st 2013. It means that most probably it will be a better performer compared to other DOW components by Dec 30 2013. It does not even mean that it will have a positive YTD gain in 2013. MCD can have -7% YTD in 2013 and still be the best component because the others are doing worse that -7%.
More on MCD. Please check the chart. If MCD hits $88.5, it will confirm the bearish trend but you will lose a small chunk of profit by entering the trade late.
Let it do a Vic's 1-2-3 1st, then you can short it with a much smaller risk. Current stop is too big.
Then why bet against it? The Dow is a simple index with many trading vehicles - if you "know" how one component will move relative to the rest, it's straightforward to construct a composite trade to take advantage of it.
More clarifications: I don't put a stop loss in my trades. If it goes against me, I repair the trade. I don't give up. Here are my positions as of today: 1- Short MCD 2- Short ADI and short out of the money PUT 3- Long TZA and long out of the money covered call 4- Short way out of the money SPY PUTs. All my options are weekly if the weekly options available. If not, I trade the nearest monthly options. Once again, I have already stated that retail sales will not be good and the market will go into 5% correction. You see that today the bad news for retain sales are coming out. We should see more warnings from retail companies. TGT, Kohls, Wallmart, should all warn soon.
Market is up today (as of now 9:45 ET) a little just because oil sector is up. The other sectors such as restuarnats, retail,.... all should be down. I believe at close we might have a red S&P and DOW.