MCD is in big trouble. May not exist in 5 years

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by hajimow, Apr 15, 2015.

  1. d08

    d08

    It really depends on the region. The absolute worst McD burgers I've had have been in the Philippines, it's clear they can't keep their global standards up with such big variation in quality.
    Funnily enough, the best taste has been in eastern Europe where also the service tends to be all smiles - possibly because it doesn't have a reputation of being "that crappy burger place".
     
    #141     Jul 18, 2015
  2. hajimow

    hajimow

    Quarterly numbers will be released on Thursday before market opens. From what I hear is really bad. US sales down 2% again. My today's trade is attached.

    MCD_PUT_95.JPG
     
    #142     Jul 20, 2015
  3. hajimow

    hajimow

    Q result is due tomorrow before market opens. I expect the stock to drop 2%.
     
    #143     Jul 22, 2015
  4. ironchef

    ironchef

    MCD up this morning after earning? Maybe they turned the corner?
     
    #144     Jul 23, 2015
  5. hajimow

    hajimow

    I noticed that. After another miserable Q, the stock started to go up to almost $100 at 45K volume!! before market opens. I shorted a little more. The stock dropped when the market opened. When a stock goes down, the sales performance wont be a straight line. Their US sales for the next Q might go up 1% and drop 6% in Asia. Ask yourself this Question: Why should one be excited about MCD? Will their burger cure cancer? Will their fries cure Alzheimer? It is just a burger. Unless their sales goes up 15% every quarter, I am not buying it. Now their dividend 0.85 cents is 2/3 of their profit. Almost like a utility company.
     
    #145     Jul 23, 2015
  6. xandman

    xandman

    ....talks about a dividend cut. I hope they make a big one. That would be a "kitchen sink" quarter.
     
    #146     Jul 23, 2015
  7. hajimow

    hajimow

    I don't think they will cut dividend.
     
    #147     Jul 23, 2015
    xandman likes this.
  8. xandman

    xandman

    Decided to look up the history. 2/28/2008. Big cut. 1.50 to .35c. That's a brutal cut. Possibility is there.
     
    #148     Jul 23, 2015
  9. hajimow

    hajimow

    Now the Q profit was 1.23 and the dividend is 0.85 but the earning should deteriorate fast and if it drops below $1, they will think of cutting the dividend. If EPS drops below 0.85, paying that dividend would be funny. The reason for a short term spike is a little short covering and also some investors who "THINK" the business has turned around. Based on numbers, nothing has changed and it shows that things are getting worse. A little gain in profit is not because of high sale, it is because of cost cuttings like less TV ads,.... that might negatively affect future sales.
     
    #149     Jul 23, 2015
  10. hajimow

    hajimow

    Anyway my 18 PUT 95 and one PUT 94.5 is going to expire worthless tomorrow so I can repeat the same thing next week :)
     
    #150     Jul 23, 2015