McCain's Cancer Of 'Deadliest Kind': Palin Has 40% Odds Succeeding McCain In 1st Term

Discussion in 'Politics' started by ByLoSellHi, Oct 4, 2008.

  1. Get the word out (the truth) if you are afraid of a Palin Presidency. This is a real issue, and it is irresponsible to allow it to be swept under the rug.

    Succession Odds Hang Over Big VP Debate 40% for McCain, Only About 5% for Obama

    2008-10-02 17:52:52 -
    The long shadow of likely presidential succession hangs over the vice presidential debates tonight as never before, as the public tries to evaluate the qualifications of a woman who, according to Professor John Banzhaf, has about a 40% chance of succeeding Senator John McCain during his first term should he be elected, and much higher odds if he succeeds himself. The corresponding odds for Senator Joe Biden to take over for Senator Barack Obama are only about 5%.

    McCain's heavy smoking earlier in life, plus his age, suggest that Palin would have as high as a 40% chance of taking over from him if both were elected.

    Former heavy smoker McCain has about a 20% chance of dying in office, and an even higher risk of disability, and this does not even take into account his substantially increased
    risk of early death from the malignant stage IIa melanoma removed in 2000 which has a 10-year survival rate of only 65%, according to the AMA.


    McCain's smoking boosts his risk of dying from lung cancer by about 700%, and his risk of dying of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) even more.

    Also, his advanced age balloons his odds of becoming disabled from a variety of conditions - including a stroke or Alzheimer's - both diseases which can impair judgment, treatment may be debilitating, and where the risks increase very rapidly with age, notes Professor Banzhaf.

    Some sources have tried to underplay the chances the Palin could take over from McCain by attempting to use actuarial tables, but such table are usually based upon out of date figures and biased in favor of the insurance companies which issue them.

    Banzhaf says his estimates are based upon National Cancer Institute tables issued in 2008 which take into account not only the latest figures, but also include smoking as a very important factor in calculating the odds of death.

    Male former smokers who are 75 years of age have a greater than 50% chance of dying during their next ten years, whereas those who are currently 70 have a 10-year risk of death over 35%. McCain, who is 72, has a statistical risk of death somewhere between these two figures, which Banzhaf estimates could be as high as a 20% chance of dying during the next 5 years.
    National Cancer Institute Report: Mortality Table:

    These figures do not include McCain's increased risk of death from his multiple bouts of deadly melanoma skin cancer, a condition which could reoccur, and which recent research shows also increases the risks of developing other types of cancer.

    Indeed, notes Banzhaf, even if a reoccurrence of melanoma doesn't kill McCain, the treatments for it are often so debilitating that it might make it impossible for him to continue to serve in office and make crucial decisions.

    Naturally, the odds that he will suffer from some disabling condition while in office are much higher that the risks of dying, with studies suggesting that the disability rate of persons 70-74 is almost 40%, and among those 75-79, the rate approaches 50%.

    While a president's access to excellent medical care might tend to reduce these odds, the enormous stresses of the presidency - far greater than those experienced by most men over the age of 70 - could also increase the odds.


    One potentially disabling disease McCain could face is Alzheimer's, where advancing age is the major risk factor, and the odds of coming down with the disease double every five years after the age of 65.

    Unfortunately, the minor memory impairments and other mental problems often present during the early stages of Alzheimer's might be barely noticeable and of little consequence in a typical 72-year-old man enjoying retirement or working on a part- or even full-time basis, but they could be catastrophic in a president who must make crucial decisions regarding war, peace, and the economy, negotiate with other world leaders, etc.

    Here it must be remembered that Ronald Reagan apparently exhibited early symptoms of Alzheimer's long before leaving office. For example, Lesley Stahl said in her book that she and others in the media thought he was "sinking into senility" even by 1986, but those around him "covered up his condition."

    Talking Points Memo notes: "On the campaign trail this cycle, McCain frequently forgets key elements of policies, gets countries' names wrong, forgets things he's said only hours or days before and is frequently just confused. . . . It's whispered about among reporters. . . . But it's verboten as a topic of public discussion."

    However, all this discussion occurred before McCain selected a running mate who many have suggested now lacks sufficient experience to take over as president.

    If these are possible early signs in McCain of Alzheimer's or some other deterioration in mental functioning brought on already by age, they are only likely to get worse with time. When they get serious enough and can no longer be overlooked or covered up, Palin may be forced to step in.


    Another major risk for McCain is a stroke, the third leading cause of death in the U.S., and a major cause of serious long-term disability.

    The chances of someone having a stroke increase very rapidly with age, with two-thirds of all strokes occurring in people over 65.

    Stroke risk doubles with each decade past 55. In addition to causing physical disability which could affect McCain's ability to maintain his schedule, strokes can impair mental functioning, as well as the ability to communicate.

    The potential health risks facing Barack Obama, age 47, are very different. Male former smokers who are 45 years of age have less than a 5% chance of dying within the next ten year.

    Even if he is classified as a current smoker - although he reportedly has quit with, at most, an occasional relapse - his 10-year death risk is still under 10%. Banzhaf estimates his chances of dying while in office are only about 4%.


    The 25th Amendment provides for the vice president to assume the duties of the president if he has a disability which makes him "unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office."

    It further provides that, if the president does not himself recognize that a physical or mental disability renders him unable, that decision may be made by the Vice President and a majority of the principal officers of the executive departments.

    This might occur, for example, if a president came down with Alzheimer's but refused - perhaps because of the disease, and/or his reluctance to accept the diagnosis - to agree to formally relinquish his powers.

    John Banzhaf is a professor at George Washington University known in part for his statistical-type analyses ("The Banzhaf Index") as well as his very successful work against smoking.

    He stresses that he does not express or even imply any opinions or preferences regarding the four major-party candidates for high office, and that this analysis is designed simply to highlight some statistical factors regarding the candidates, especially as it relates to smoking.

    Professor of Public Interest Law
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  2. It is too bad many people consider keeping a black man out of office more important than their well being...
  3. Mercor


    If this is the case then we are all better off with a President Palin.
  4. This is based on NO ATTENTION PAID to McCain's malignant cancer bouts - None. Just based on age and actuarial tables, McCain has a 25% chance of not surviving a 2nd term.


    One-in-four chance McCain may not survive 2nd term


    If John McCain is elected and goes on to win a second term, there's as much as a one-in-four chance America could see its first woman president — Sarah Palin.

    It's actuarial math.

    The odds highly favor either McCain or Barack Obama completing a first term in good health. After that, McCain's odds are still fairly solid, but his chances of dying or being in poor health go up faster than Obama's, mainly because of his age.

    An Atlanta actuarial company specializing in individualized estimates of life and health expectancy has run the numbers for McCain, 72, and Obama, 47. The firm, Bragg Associates, calculated the odds of the candidates dying in office, adjusted for their known health problems.

    McCain would be the oldest president to begin a first term in office. By the end of a second term, Jan. 20, 2017, he would have a 24.44 percent chance of dying, compared with 5.76 percent for Obama, the firm estimates.

    "Can either candidate expect to serve two terms in a healthy state? The answer is yes," says James C. Brooks, Jr., an actuary with the firm. "They're both in outstanding health for people of their age."

    Illness is another issue.

    Because chances of developing a serious ailment are higher for any person than are the chances of dying, Bragg used the candidates' medical information to estimate how many years of good health might be in store for each. After all, a debilitating illness could force a president to step down.

    The firm estimates that McCain has a health expectancy of 8.4 years, while Obama can expect another 21.9 years of good health. The calculations are from January 2009, covering two terms in office for either candidate. McCain, if he's like others in his age group, would have a cushion of just about five months.

    But no one really knows. Actuaries like Brooks make statistical calculations for insurance companies, based on numbers culled from large databases. No matter how sophisticated, they can't predict anyone's future.

    "There a randomness to it that we don't know," said Ron Gebhardtsbauer, who directs the actuarial science program at Penn State's Smeal College of Business.

    For example, he said, "if McCain is president, he'll get the best health care in the world. I can't crank that into any of my numbers."

    Health expectancy calculations, although relatively new, are becoming increasingly important as people buy long-term-care insurance.

    "We've done thousands of these health expectancy calculations for financial planners," said Brooks. "People, especially those with high net worth, are concerned more about the risk of living too long than about what happens if they die prematurely. What if they need long-term care?"

    The firm's estimates for McCain and Obama relied on medical information disclosed by the candidates. Bragg Associates has no partisan agenda, said Brooks: "We don't have a dog in this hunt."

    He classified the Democrat as a smoker with minor upper respiratory problems, probably linked to his smoking. Obama announced in February that he was trying to quit smoking again, with the aid of nicotine gum.

    "We don't consider you a nonsmoker until you stay quit for 12 months," said Brooks.

    In the spring, the Obama campaign released a letter from the candidate's doctor declaring him to be in excellent health. He had very good cholesterol levels, his EKG was normal, his pulse was 60 beats per minute, and his blood pressure was an outstanding 90 over 60. Obama also exercises regularly.

    But Obama has a family history of cancer. His mother died of ovarian cancer and his maternal grandfather died of prostate cancer. Obama's PSA screening test for prostate cancer showed no sign of abnormalities.

    For the Republican, Brooks took into account a history of skin cancer, degenerative arthritis from his Vietnam war injuries, moderately high cholesterol, mild vertigo and that McCain is a former smoker who quit in 1980.

    McCain allowed reporters to review eight years of medical records, more than 1,000 pages. They show that he is cancer-free, has a strong heart and is generally in good health. As a three-time melanoma survivor, his biggest health worry is a recurrence of that cancer. But he is closely watched by his dermatologist, and any future melanoma should be caught in time to be treated successfully. McCain maintains a healthy weight and blood pressure, and takes medication for his cholesterol.

    To underscore his chances of long life, he's campaigned with his mother, 96 and going strong.

    Vice presidential candidates Joe Biden and Sarah Palin have not released their medical records, although Biden has promised to. Biden, 65, had surgery 20 years ago to repair a life-threatening brain aneurysm. He was out of the Senate for seven months while he recuperated but says he's fine now. Palin, 44, a mother of five, gave birth earlier this year to a son, Trig, who was born with Down syndrome.
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  6. BylowSellhi it would be some what smart to read your articles before you put them on here. It says Palin has a 40% chance of becoming president because of the death of McCain but then later it says the chances of McCain dying are as high as 20%. The math is a bit off but im not surprised given your inexperience with high percentages. Unless were talking negatives of course.
  7. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    yep, thats what it is. just like the people in the middle east now hate us coz of our freedom, next they are going to hate us because of our african american president...pull your head out of your ass and stop drinking the kool-aide man.
  8. Brandonf

    Brandonf ET Sponsor

    Obama was also an admitted heavy smoker until about a year and a half ago, should we be in a panic? After all, McCain hasnt smoked in over 10 years, Obama has shown the terrible judgement to continue until just recently (will he show similar terrible judgement when across the table from Evil Mr Putin?) when he realized it would be politically better for him to stop smoking (he admits that politics, not health was his primary consideration in stopping). Anyway, there are plenty of good reasons not to vote for McCain, this is a retarded one.
  9. The relevant point, whether any of us like it or not, is that cancer more often recurs than not, and given McCain's history of malignant skin cancer - which was NOT factored into any statistical analysis of the odds of a Palin succeeding him - any resistance to a medically-driven discussion of the impacts to McCain's survivability should be broken down.

    This is even more imperative for those who are resistant to a 'Palin' Presidency, or even for those who are not yet familiar enough of Palin's policies to be comfortable with here policies and beliefs.

    By the way, there is statistically meaningful growing resistance to McCain because of his choice of Palin as VP in Florida's Jewish Communities according to the lastest Ipsos research data (I will find the links when I am able). Jews are growing increasingly uncomfortable with McCain because of his choice of Palin.

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  10. Isn't Obama chewing nicotine gum to get off his smoking habit? How long does the average black man live? Obama could die before McCain! Joe Biden also could die before McCain. Joe looks older than John!
    #10     Oct 5, 2008