maybe some bond guys can post here but 450 bill of paper needs to be rolled before Feb 1, and how this can happened w/ no viable insurance should be interesting.... maybe that's why Bernanke looked like he was on the way to the dentist when he was before Congress....
Yes he looked thouroughly depressed with the weight of the world on his shoulders. This is his nightmare playing out on his watch. His whole career has been built on the thesis that the Fed can stave off another '29 event and yet it is what seems to be unfolding.
The whole situation is very hard to understand. It was a rough week on the markets and it seems like something is looming. I'm just trying to figure out what type of effect Ambac and MBIA will have on the markets. It's a very weird time. In Canada, the Bank of Canada announces their interest decision on Tuesday and will probably lower the BOC rate by a quarter point. What's weird, is a story this week that the Cdn chartered banks may not match this cut with a cut in their prime rates. They cite increased borrowing costs as their reasoning. (this is quite unusual, the banks threatening to break ranks with their central bank) Very strange indeed.
an opinion of course, but the Treasury will be forced to step in if the S&P tanks another 200 points.... massive devaluation and dilution... I thought gold had an excellent chance of hammering down 30 to 50 bucks late this week but it held in there......
most people think the '29 crash happened all in one week or one month.... but it took years to play out..... at least asset wise.....
The initial crash happened in one day, then, as your graph show, it bounced back only to lose many times more over the next couple of years. It took a world war to recover.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&refer=home&sid=asLtTQyLRQQs It is no wonder Buffet just entered this business, the risk premium now is such that it represents significant opportunity for deep pockets with cash. If the State regulators get involved and the fed helps with some gauarntees you should see significant investments pouring in to this area. Just 6 months ago people were throwing their money at this stuff for ridiculously low rates of return, now the rate of return is many multiples of what it was and once someone with credibility says the buck stops here there will be a deluge of investment to take advantage of these fat premiums. America is not going out of business folks. This three day weekend is a blesssing as it gives people time to meet and hammer out a solution. Anyone know where Bush is this weekend? It better not be on his damn ranch cutting brush or some such nonsense.
Short squeeze alert, barrons issues buy on MBI. http://online.barrons.com/article/SB120071150488302379.html?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo&page=1 If there is no bad news on the coming days I expect this one to hurt quite a bit
all eyes on Karen Barrow(1-410-468-2007) of the Maryland Insurance Administration I will try to call her on monday to see what they decided on ACA