Disagree. Any other time you would be correct, again that is the historic "market psychology." But this time no. The market already has the odds of a major recession in its sites. A rate cut(s) would not institute an increased level of fear beyond where it already sits.
Disagree. 1932 Depression wiped out people who bought in the bottom 1929 stock crash as it hit newer lower lows in 1932.
Until JGB yields stabilize or whatever the f--- the BoJ is doing, the old markets aren't coming back. Trump is causing global rates to rise, and that is causing the carry trade to go into hyper-drive. lmao, it will turn around but the question is when and to what extent.
This OP fool hates it here because it's too "TDS" and political but all of his posts are about Trump.
There are now 10% tariffs on all countries (for 90 days maybe prolonged if no deal in meantime with that corresponding country) and US Dollar lost 10% in that time (some weeks earlier started because anticipating) so there is ZERO Effect at all after currency devaluation (on all imports) ? So there is no inflation then coming or is this thesis wrong ?. Then of course there is no argument AGAINST RATE CUTS now because of the loosening US Dollar against all major countries.
No. The carry trade flows, combined with trade deficit monies repatriating prior to "Liberation Day" were both suppressing treasury yields and supporting leverage in US asset exposures (not to mention USD strength). (treasury is collateral for margin loans or swap trades). When orangeman did the thing, it cut off USD outflows, and put the (China sourcing) multinationals off-sides (that's you, Tim Cook). So, now we have a problem where the case for US exceptionalism (dollar/bonds rally during risk off), AKA "Safe Haven Status", is no longer in play. The new safe havens are foreign FX denominated equities/bonds and gold. The problems are myriad. Morgan said "clients are deleveraging". This is fundamental selling. Everybody needs liquidity. Also, if the China tariff situation doesn't get 'resolved' then the supply chains will have to be reformed. None of this is good for the 'status quo' of yesteryear.