Again and for the last time Pocoyo2014, do you want to make money or do you want to understand why the market moved this way and not that way? You truly believe that I give a rat's ass why the Yen, Google, coffee futures or the Nikkei moved that way rather than that way, today? Pfffffffffff........... If my backtested system triggers a BUY signal on XYZ then I BUY XYZ . If my backtested system sends a short signal on ABC then I short ABC. That's it.
to give a market move more meaning.....use the magic eight ball! Ultimately you will only be able to guess what is causing the changes in supply and demand, and understanding the motivations behind them, especially in the short term is going to be a head banging experience. Unless you have direct access to the order that is currently dominating a market you will not know the motivations for it. Think of what would normally be a dominant buy order .... what if it simply comes up against a wall of selling from mulitple parties, or one large seller. Other times the buyer might find no sellers and has to pay up, or drags short sellers with it, or new buyers with it. They might be buying based on inflows, or outflows, because they were short, or hedging, or rebalancing, or punting, or their model told them so, or they had an analyst briefing, or his best mate at GS told him to. They are then competing against others who might have the same reasons, different reasons or completely opposite reasons. If you want meaning for the move - your beliefs are irrelevant. If you want your PL to have meaning - make money and then donate to charity.
Agree with you on the matter of Ag markets (very scared of them for that reason and try not touch them ). But concerning global macro driven trends, while fundamental picture is relatively clear on the largest time scale, timing is extremely difficult, cause even the largest players react to their theories of reality and not the reality itself. That's what Soros called "theory of reflexivity".
%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% I agree, mostly except emotional moves are NOT@ all limited to small or even medium investors/traders,brokers/brokerage houses. a] AS your interesting last line proves that . Bunker + Bro Hunt; were limit up silver traders. That was losses in billions[billions as in bankrupt] for the Hunts + almost bankrupted brokerages that margin loaned them. No disrespect intended for those Texan silver traders Hunts of TX were right for years on the silver Uptrend, but have a selling plan , margin calls are not really a selling plan . Thanks; mr original poster ,,,you may want to rethink your assumption that you can figure price based on fundamentals ??????? Not fun or profitable unless your name is Jim Rogers
Curiosity is fine , i trade much the same way. It's hard to keep a $ stop loss in these times, because you dont think along those lines. Fixed it by keeping an iron hard discipline of not losing more than x on any given day.
Trading is about making money â period â trying to find any further meaning is wasted effort Price moves upâ¦, because it is being marked up Price moves downâ¦, because it is being marked down Between ups and downs.., much shenanigans is played out The how is obviousâ¦, as is the why... As to the who â assume it is the boys with the moneyâ¦, moving price And the one(s) doing the work for the boys â pulling the shenanigans (the boys ainât got time for that crap) Do volunteer work / adopt a less fortunate family / become a Big Brother / Big Sister / make a difference in someone else's life.., not related to you ---------------------------------------------------- Attempting to find meaning from the mkt / trading - is like trying to finding compassion from a rock - ain't happening RN
Why don't you set up a test and try to prove to yourself which works best? First, set some rules..... 1. A rule for what percentage of your capital goes to the "try to see why" trades, and what percentage to the "don't bother with why" trades. 2. A rule for how long you will continue this contest, using the above percentages. There are different kinds of traders. I don't know why the market does what it does, or why it often does not do what I expect. So I am a "don't bother with why" trader. I frequently find myself buying or selling things that fit my trading rules but feel crazy. (Invariably, the ones that are scariest at the outset turn out to be the most lucrative.) Yes, I very occasionally take a flyer on a "story" but never with much money. However, there are lots of successful traders in the other camp, who adopt a macro view and successfully trade with it. The poster above who asked you whether you are more interested in making money or in figuring out the "why" of market movements had a good point. There is no reason why you cannot do both. Just make sure your capital is allocated however it needs to be: serious working capital versus play money.