Maybe Obama Can Lose...

Discussion in 'Politics' started by TraderZones, Jul 28, 2008.

  1. Gains for McCain in latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll

    Republican presidential candidate John McCain moved from being behind by 6 points among "likely" voters a month ago to a 4-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama among that group in the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll. McCain still trails slightly among the broader universe of "registered" voters. By both measures, the race is tight.

    The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%.

    Among registered voters, McCain still trails Obama, but by less. He is behind by 3 percentage points in the new poll (47%-44%) vs. a 6-point disadvantage (48%-42%) in late June.

    Results based on the survey of 791 likely voters have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points -- so McCain's lead is not outside that range. Results based on the survey of 900 registered voters also have margins of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

    Gallup editor Frank Newport tells Jill that "registered voters are much more important at the moment," because Election Day is still 100 days away, but that the likely-voter result suggests that it may be possible for McCain to energize Republicans and turn them out this fall.

    Who is a likely voter? In this poll, Frank says, that was determined by how much thought people have given to the election, how often they say they vote and whether they plan to vote in the election in November.

    He says the number of likely GOP voters is up for now, probably in part because of Obama's trip and the "laudatory" media coverage of it. "At least in the short term it may have had the side effect of energizing Republicans," he says. Also, he says that McCain's sharp words about Obama and the media last week may have energized his faithful.

    Check's charts to compare the USA TODAY/Gallup results to those from other pollsters. Other recent polls of likely voters had Obama slightly ahead.

    The USA TODAY/Gallup Poll is separate from Gallup's daily "tracking" poll on the presidential race, which this afternoon shows Obama ahead by 8 points among registered voters -- 48%-40%.

    Frank says that while the tracking poll indicates Obama may have gotten some gains from his overseas trip last week, any benefits may be short-lived. That tracking poll of 2,674 registered voters was also done Friday-Sunday and the margins of error on the results are +/- 2 percentage points.

    As for the difference between the tracking and USA TODAY/Gallup polls, Frank says not to read too much into it. "Statistical noise" may be largely to blame.

    Watch for more from the polls and analysis of the results later today at and in tomorrow's print editions of USA TODAY.
  2. Big difference answering loaded questions with a pollster, and pulling a lever in November.

    Guys I know, Guys and gals I know, don't go to rallys, don't wear T shirts. But they served their country, and they vote. Keep the faith. I think America will see this guy as the pretender he is.

    I've known guys like him all my life. All hat, no cattle.
  3. clacy


    A couple of points:

    -I agree that McCain definitely has a good shot at this election.

    -Obama is only up a few points in the national polling, which isn't too great if you ask me based on how much general momentum the Democrats have right now.

    -Obama consistently OVER-polled in the primary elections, meaning that polls leading up to the primary would have him 3-4 points higher than what the primary voting would reflect. I believe he will over-poll in the general election as well.

    -National polls are meaningless. It's going to come down to Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virgina, Colorado and Missouri. The polling in these states is extremely close right now (most within 1-3 points).

    -Obama still hasn't had to answer many hard questions on policy, as the primary debates highlighted no actual difference in positions. When he has been pushed, he has not handled it all that well.
  4. I think you guys that are worried about Obama getting elected can stop worrying for several reasons:

    1. A black man is not going to get elected in America. The Republicans, whose strength from religious freaks and working class whites is based solely on racism, will soon begin their racist attackes in earnst.

    2. The Republicans, after so many years in power at the local levels, are more capable than they were in 2000 and 2004 to steal close elections.

    That's O.K. though, a perfect storm due to massive deficits, rising unemployment, competition for resources from Russia, China, India and others is brewing and it won't be pretty for us. Nor will it be pretty for the next president.

    Be sure you understand that McCain will only last two years so you are really voting for his VP choice. Great countries are laid to waste by poor choices: it appears that we on track to elect the lessor candidate (by far) for the 3rd time in a row.
  5. As opposed to the Democrats, who demonstrate and whine demanding endless recounts.

    When even one shows them slightly ahead, THEN they want to stop.

    In the Florida election, they did have a final recount after all the hub-bub, and Bush was STILL ahead.
  6. clacy


    Please give us one valid example of Republican racism in this election.

    So far the only racism I've witnessed has been from Democrats.......Bill Clinton, the New Yorker, Jesse Jackson
  7. Oh? It's clear who is the lesser choice? Seems to me, all we EVER get to choose from is "lesser choices"...

    Or do you mean "the lesser of lesser choices"?
  8. Classic. I suppose the 98% black bloc vote for Obama is based on their appreciation of his being Editor of the Harvard Law Review. No racism there obviously.

    I also appreciate the unintended humor of your religious bigotry mixed in an attack on supposed racial bigotry.
  9. Your knowledge cannot be overestimated.

    A 70 year old man (in 1996) is projected to live another 12.4 years. Given his income and education, it would be another couple of years on top of that...
  10. The vast majority of 70 year old men did not serve 5 years in a war-prison and are not serving as president of the US. Oh yeah; he's already survived a bout of cancer, too.
    #10     Jul 28, 2008