May '20 crude futures = $20, June '20 crude futures = $28

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by SteveM, Apr 14, 2020.

  1. tsfx

    tsfx

    Your desire to be long oil is reflected in the contango.
     
    #11     Apr 15, 2020
  2. hafez50

    hafez50

    I never really trade oil. So Contango means everyone knows demand collapse is short term thus the further out months are 30% more. That means if you buy further months out contracts your probably not going to make much money unless spot oil sky's. Its like buying a 13 vix 5 months out. Everyone knows at some pt the vix will sky so they keep the far out calls super expensive . Just like when the vix was 84. Everyone knew its impossible for the ix to stay at 84 so the 50 vix puts are crazy expensive . As far as i can tell the only way to play oil is get lucky with the cl close in month or buy oil stocks which are already 50% off their lows in 3 weeks.
     
    #12     Apr 15, 2020
  3. bone

    bone

    Energy in particular is a Spread Traders wet dream. Tons of opportunities - thousands of Inter and Intra product spread combinations.
     
    #13     Apr 15, 2020
  4. tsfx

    tsfx

    really ? can you give me a "wet dream"-like example of crude oil spread trading opportunity right now ?
     
    #14     Apr 15, 2020
  5. Overnight

    Overnight

    The spread is narrowing FAST. Folks long in Jun outrights are not happy.
     
    #15     Apr 15, 2020
  6. tsfx

    tsfx

    is it ? it's about 6.30 now, high was a bit above 7 yesterday and below 6 the day before. Looks pretty stable to me.
     
    #16     Apr 15, 2020
  7. Overnight

    Overnight

    This is what I see on the net change. Larger drops in June means coming home to roost?

    clcontango2020a.JPG
     
    #17     Apr 15, 2020
  8. tsfx

    tsfx

    yep, 6.30 is about right.

    Go ahead, sell the spread then :)
     
    #18     Apr 15, 2020
  9. xandman

    xandman

    Might be something else coming to roost.

    upload_2020-4-16_0-17-53.png
     
    #19     Apr 16, 2020
  10. xandman

    xandman

    FYI: That spread went the opposite way from the rest of the series during the drop today. It would have been very frustrating.

    Front Month is crazy. You are probably competing with guys who have real-time pricing for storage across the nation and wherewithal to take delivery (just to burn your arse).
     
    #20     Apr 16, 2020