This is still quite limited info, but I will give it the veritable college try: 1. Check the SPAN Performance Bond Margin requirements for each of those positions - you will find that tab over in the exchange website contract specs; go to the "inter" and also "intra, super" spreads tabs. 2. Check the past 20 days historical average true range for each spread and monetize it. Those two exercises should get you in the ballpark in terms of what you could expect in terms of drawdown potential and capitalization requirements. Good luck.
Bone, thanks for the reply. I agree with the line of thought there however I am already well on top of this. Already using PC span and a variation of ATR to calculate potential losses. The question I need to find an answer for is how big is too big...... I probably havent explained myself too well here so let me try again.... If I have a calendar strategy that is a proven in a certain contract to be consistantly profitable then all I have to do is ramp up the size (not that simple, but for the sake of this argument lets pretend it is). The million dollar question is how big can I get? If average daily volume in the less liquid contract is 500 and OI is 1500 what is the biggest position size I could go to without risking getting caught with my pants down if I needed to get out? (note: I am not looking for a specific answer to these numbers, I'm after a logical calculation that I could apply to any contract) I was thinking a simple % of daily volume or OI, but then started thinking that volume is better as OI includes commercial interest who intend to carry to settlement making the number irrelevant. so would say 20% of daily volume be a reasonable number? Can I afford to go bigger than that or is that already too big? I dont plan to use any calculation as an absolute, more of a guideline to give me a general idea. Thanks, hope that helps us move forward
What is your current sizing in the live markets ? ... or are you speaking in hypotheticals like SIM trading or backtesting ? Most importantly, what is your existing capital on hand in a trading account this instant ? Since you understandably want to remain vague to the point of not even remotely furnishing enough pertinent contract and position construction information in order to solicit a rational and relevent answer, we will try a different tact based strictly upon your current capitalization. Quite frankly, I have live order books up for every spread market known to mankind. I clear several markets. I trade all up and down the forward curve. I have clients active in OTC energy, LME metals, and Asian stock indices. This is my last offer for help, because your evasiveness will leave you right where you started otherwise in terms of my interaction with you.
Bone, I'm sure you have more spreads on your screen at anyone time than I would look at in months of trading. I actually enjoy reading your posts on spreads I've never even considered and apologies for my vagueness hampering your ability to respond. Wasn't my intention. I was trying to avoid specific positions as my focus was more on the topic of' How to create a formula based on average volume or OI to help create a guideline for a maximum position for a contract month' rather than ' how big can I safely go in this specific spread of A:B' However if specific positions helps further the conversation, and I can extrapolate that to other positions then here we go. (both on Tocom) Rubber Dec11:Feb12 5 a side Gasoline Dec11:Mar12 5 a side I hope my current position sizes dont hinder the discussion here though.... As an example of what I am trying to achieve here, Average daily volume in Dec11 Rubber is 170 contracts a day and open interest is 1882. Average Daily volume in the Mar12 contract is 4342 and OI is 9619 If I was looking at a position I was expecting to hold for 1-3 weeks with some minor adjustments along the way, how big could I go before I was asking for trouble? Hope I have put enough out there to help continue this discussion now
how can you use 5 times market capacity and at the same time never exceed more 10% of total volume during the RTH? î÷åðåäÃà ÿ ïîåáåÃü â èñïîëÃÃ¥Ãèè õåðøè!!!
How can you even know what the RTH volume would be,to estimate holding percentage?!What kind of a caca is that!
This is a repeat post: ________________________________________ Quote from SnakeEYE: how can you use 5 times market capacity and at the same time never exceed more 10% of total volume during the RTH? ________________________________________ The way this is done involves your monitoring display and your trading platform. Figuring this out is something I do not expect you to be able to do since you lack the experience of building wealth and lack the experience of using a routine other than the OODA betting style of entry/exit beginner level of trading. In other words, you are so handicapped that you could not reason through the process for this style of trading. The capacity of the markets is shown on the rainbow rays of your 5 minute volume display. TN has this in its library in the appropriate part of the library. For other monitoring displays, go to the thread on Hershey coding where many volunteers have coded this for other commercial monitoring providers supplying retail and professional traders. You multiply the color value (which is updated avery bar) by 5 and get 5 times the capacity. Then you go to your trading platform and enter this value as the number of contracts you can trade. For you. it turns out you do not have that buying power. So your platform tells you you have made a mistake. Mistakes are common for you and you then go into your "fixation" and take it out on someone who does not already have you on ignore. Pretend you are me and you are using a trading platform for mulitple accounts (up to 15 to retain an NFA amateur rating). Each account can be set to a % of wealth in the account. You convert the 5 times capacity to a value in % of wealth in the account. During the day you have to change the capacity multiple three times. the times are (for ES 5 min chart) bar 1, 33 , and PM BO which varies as you probably do not know up to now. Markets work according to an order of evenets and MOT according to a probability based time series. I trade on a fractal that has 20 to 40 trends a day. There is only one certain Order of Events of each of these observable trends. I anticipate by the OOE the impeding end of a trend and overlap beginning. I carve the turn using 10 to 12 leading indicators of price. At that period of reversing to take the full offer, my print is running at full speed recording a large number of partial fills that sum up to twice the value of 3 times the market capacity. (you probably couldn't figure out that a reversal takes twice as many partial fills as an entry or exit does. The money making is done by holding through the entire trend. 20 to 40 trades involves 4 to 2 five minute bars. during this hold period the market contues along at its capaity as other people take their trading turns. The market is huge and offers continually. There are some precursors for being able to practice this part of an approach. You have to learn to learn (this is not documented in ET because of the fixed posts at the top of education. Management made the mistake of preventing learning to learn first. Second you have to go through a learning process specifically directed at learning how markets work. Probability is NOT the mathematics that will lead to learning how markets work. If you do not select the correct mathematics, then you cannot learn how markets work. That is where you made another of your mistakes. Third. A person has to understand what he is doing and why he feels as he does. In Behavioral Finance (BF), you could have found out your three major practice mistakes. After you can recognize these three mistakes, then you can use real time personal emotional signals to stop for a moment and follow the procedure outlined in Behavioral Finance. You cannot do this since you go to a place described by Andrew Lo of MIT in his papers; you become non functional instead of following directions. This correction to your questions on ny trading process is just an example being made of you and your kind. Your choice is to print this and do work to begin to learn or simply to become incensed one more time and move away from what you must do, thus postponing it. Some people reread my posts at a later time when they have become more rational (See BF on this) and are able to begin to behave in their own personal interests. One difficult thing I had to learn was to "not care" about people caught in the BF traps. Long ago I failed to understand these people had to go through on their own the consequeces of their mistaken decision making. Today, what happened to you was that your stupid question was answered and you either understood what I do or you didn't. You also found out what I do will never be possible for you, ever. You found out you crossed the line in deciding a belief system that will not work for you to make money to grow wealthy. Naturally, you will continue to NOT learn and to do what you do best here: make small minded unthoughtful comments to get attention.
Thanks Jack,i`ve saved your post this time.You can shut it down.I`ll start with the last paragraph,where you usually trash people.I usually start from the end,that`s why i`m a small minded,i guess. Thanks
i didn`t know that a reversal takes twice as many partial fills,that`s true.doest it? i have enough bp,don`t worry.i just don`t want to spend it on things that vague.enough spent!i want sure things.you didn`t bring any sure things to the table. i thought that entire ET have you on ignore,no?though i don`t give a shit who has whom on gnore... if you had the ability to put sure things in short,there wouldn`t be 'stupid' questions,but you have not!12 indicators..come on!i use 2,and can hit 100% on a slower timeframe.i use 2D as a fastest. one impossible thing you`ll never learn is to treat people right.you think your unique and others just a trash and dumb.that`s your problem! i don`t need attention.people choose to reply.they could not,i dont give a fuck!